sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM came more west...things are really getting interesting at the last minute! taken with a grain of salt. the way i'm approaching this is, it will be a plowable event and thats how i will plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Advisory issued for entire CWA. 3-5 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM snow map. Brings .5 line back to Lancaster/Reading and getting pretty close to MDT. I don't buy this happening though, as off-hour NAMs are usually whacky. That includes what was already on the ground - I like using this better: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Eel you're right, didn't realize that was depth. My apologies guys, too quick on the trigger for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well even for us here in Lancaster, 3-6. Well that's a start, Still thinking we could get a surprise start to this storm. Perhaps closer and having it move a little more slowly. Not the several feet that NE will get, but still perhaps a couple of more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well even for us here in Lancaster, 3-6. Well that's a start, Still thinking we could get a surprise start to this storm. Perhaps closer and having it move a little more slowly. Not the several feet that NE will get, but still perhaps a couple of more inches. We'll see. Hopefully the coastal gets going sooner and hugs the coast. If so, we could reach 6"-8" I suppose. One problem (among others) is how fast it all moves through...I agree with Sauss...if the precip holds off until evening that will help some too. Eric Horst, as expected, is taking the conservative road of 2" to 5", though he did leave the door open to the possibility of more (or less) depending on the interaction of the upper level low and the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We'll see. Hopefully the coastal gets going sooner and hugs the coast. If so, we could reach 6"-8" I suppose. One problem (among others) is how fast it all moves through...I agree with Sauss...if the precip holds off until evening that will help some too. Eric Horst, as expected, is taking the conservative road of 2" to 5", though he did leave the door open to the possibility of more (or less) depending on the interaction of the upper level low and the coastal. I always like Eric's forecast. not that he needs my support, but i think it was smart that he allowed some wiggle room ( 1 way or the other) it just goes to show that he too has concerns like everyone else, including here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Henry's snow map accuweather.com and the acuuweather snow map below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Henry's snow map accuweather.com Henry sucks...there is no reasoning for that area of 1-3 other than it is the "snow hole"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Off topic kind of. But look what the Nam is giving Hartford UNREAL http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_khfd.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice "dome" sitting on top..darn you Henry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think well get at least the 2-4 to shovel in this area in the lower Sus valley no matter what the low does. If it forms sooner then anything after that is a plus. Even 2-4 will be more then I'v had all year. Man i'm sounding like a winnie but i just want to use my new snow blower once this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Off topic kind of. But look what the Nam is giving Hartford UNREAL http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_khfd.dat i seen that. 30:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 not the best looking map from the 18z gfs for central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the dryslot has shifted my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oz NAM struggles to bring .25 to 81. it has more precip but shockingly has a much tighter gradient. We can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Henry sucks...there is no reasoning for that area of 1-3 other than it is the "snow hole"! Dry slot from coastal transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oz NAM struggles to bring .25 to 81. it has more precip but shockingly has a much tighter gradient. We can't win. No we can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But the ratios! You know when you have to look at ratios to get 2-3" of snow you have a bad winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is really starting to look like 12/26 all over again. Wouldn't be surprised to see the amounts go lower...I was supposed to get 6" to 10" from that one, ended up with a light dusting. Congrats, Boston! Looks like it might be special up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is really starting to look like 12/26 all over again. Wouldn't be surprised to see the amounts go lower...I was supposed to get 6" to 10" from that one, ended up with a light dusting. Congrats, Boston! Looks like it might be special up there. Seasonal trends. Next year they'll all be cutters and we'll be 40 and rain all winter. There is something seriously wrong when Northern Alabama can get a 9 inch snowstorm and 3/4 of Pennsylvania can't... http://www.americanw...-southern-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seasonal trends. Next year they'll all be cutters and we'll be 40 and rain all winter. There is something seriously wrong when Northern Alabama can get a 9 inch snowstorm and 3/4 of Pennsylvania can't... http://www.americanw...-southern-snow/ Looks like a storm 8-9 days out has some potential, especially to our south this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, it can warm up now... Baseball anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 0z Nam for the lower susq valley looks to be the same look it has been brings .25 to .50 looks good to me for a 3-6" storm. Understood others to our east will get more but I will take it. RGEM came in west too. Still time for a little more west ward shift to get into warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im thinking 2-3 inches for central areas. 0z nam has .23 0z gfs has .22 for DUJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im thinking 2-3 inches for central areas. Yea, its not looking as great tonight.. the slot in especially the south-central is more pronounced and QPF is a hair drier. Big thing i've seen is the track of the developing 850 low looks to traverse approx north-central PA enroute to rapidly deepening once to the coast per both GFS and NAM. You pretty much want that feature to pass to your south a bit to stay in better snows and not get slotted out by the transfer. This issue probably costs a good portion of south-central PA a couple inches of snow and potentially some advisories depending on what CTP decides to do. Still think north/west-central and northeast is good to go for a 3-6 type event. And in fact, when they updated their forecast around 8pm, they already had cut an inch or two in many places. There's still high pops during the day wednesday, so depending on how much tries to work back in from the west and north..could salvage that extra inch or two during the day Wednesday for some places. The thing we all have going for us is the decent ratios forecast for the snowfall. And really, the differences in models have been a tenth or two either way, and thats all we'd need for the high end advisory. Don't know if i'm gonna put together a new map tonight yet..might wait till 12z models tomorrow. Overall i'm satisfied that the storm ended up being the miller-b type storm that I had been thinking was going to occur several days ago when I said that it was gonna be either that or a bust for PA if it was a true miller A. Didn't exactly nail the evolution tho, I was thinking the storm was going to lift out of the gulf states and transfer to the coast..and instead its almost a hybrid instead of a true B, with the gulf low coming up the coast and the separate Ohio valley low. And thats not necessarily the best situation for us unless the midwest low got south enough. Since the two features stayed separate and the southern wave was allowed to get to the coast before turning, that took the high impact warning snow potential off the table and is going to relagate us to lesser advisory snows and put us more at the mercy of the slot. And when these things do merge, it'll be too late for us and New England will be on their way to making up for last winter. I still think pretty much everyone should see at least 2-3 inches, so at least its better than the post X-mas miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like the 0z may have been a blip. Take a breath, children. Miller B's ain't for the weak of heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yea, its not looking as great tonight.. the slot in especially the south-central is more pronounced and QPF is a hair drier. Big thing i've seen is the track of the developing 850 low looks to traverse approx north-central PA enroute to rapidly deepening once to the coast per both GFS and NAM. You pretty much want that feature to pass to your south a bit to stay in better snows and not get slotted out by the transfer. This issue probably costs a good portion of south-central PA a couple inches of snow and potentially some advisories depending on what CTP decides to do. Still think north/west-central and northeast is good to go for a 3-6 type event. And in fact, when they updated their forecast around 8pm, they already had cut an inch or two in many places. There's still high pops during the day wednesday, so depending on how much tries to work back in from the west and north..could salvage that extra inch or two during the day Wednesday for some places. The thing we all have going for us is the decent ratios forecast for the snowfall. And really, the differences in models have been a tenth or two either way, and thats all we'd need for the high end advisory. Don't know if i'm gonna put together a new map tonight yet..might wait till 12z models tomorrow. Overall i'm satisfied that the storm ended up being the miller-b type storm that I had been thinking was going to occur several days ago when I said that it was gonna be either that or a bust for PA if it was a true miller A. Didn't exactly nail the evolution tho, I was thinking the storm was going to lift out of the gulf states and transfer to the coast..and instead its almost a hybrid instead of a true B, with the gulf low coming up the coast and the separate Ohio valley low. And thats not necessarily the best situation for us unless the midwest low got south enough. Since the two features stayed separate and the southern wave was allowed to get to the coast before turning, that took the high impact warning snow potential off the table and is going to relagate us to lesser advisory snows and put us more at the mercy of the slot. And when these things do merge, it'll be too late for us and New England will be on their way to making up for last winter. I still think pretty much everyone should see at least 2-3 inches, so at least its better than the post X-mas miss. Great post. High expectations for these kinds of systems is dopey. Keep the expectations tiny, and don't be so whiny, I always say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like the 0z may have been a blip. Take a breath, children. Miller B's ain't for the weak of heart. The voice of reason.... If i was reading the other threads right, seems like a slight shift west, not sure of those implications. I would assume it is soon about time to start watching the radars and forget the models. I'm sticking by my 3-5" for North Eastern Cumberland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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