EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does anyone think we will see a bit more over running then the models are picking up on? I am interested to see what the HI RES NMM and ARW show here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do think MDT might be east enough to see 5-6". Sat images will be interesting as currently have the moisture west from modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do think MDT might be east enough to see 5-6". Sat images will be interesting as currently have the moisture west from modeled. Also, it appears the start time now being later Tuesday afternoon/evening, that will help as well. Also, i just ask my friend what the forecast high is to be today, cause that may bust. I was just outside and it doesn't seem like it has warmed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ummm.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do think MDT might be east enough to see 5-6". Sat images will be interesting as currently have the moisture west from modeled. I'm so worried about the dryslot, though. These things seem to have a way to sniff us out. WGAL predictor model has HBG at 2.6 inches post event. While it's not the most accurate of technologies, it shows a nice dryslot set up between 3:00 AM until the event is pretty much over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dryslot scares me too, trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dryslot scares me too, trust me! I aint a scaaaredd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I aint a scaaaredd.... GOD I WOULD DO ANYTHING FOR THAT TO COME TRUE!!!! PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 GOD I WOULD DO ANYTHING FOR THAT TO COME TRUE!!!! PLEASE! Your request has been taken into consideration. Thank you, The big guy upstair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 State College...really?!? It is time to issue winter weather advisories already for gods sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 State College...really?!? It is time to issue winter weather advisories already for gods sake! 3:28 PM. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3:28 PM. Bank on it. And if they don't? We should go up there and take over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 And if they don't? We should go up there and take over! Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 State College is HORRIBLE with their warnings and watches. They always wait til the last second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is some of discussion on the storm. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1151 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE QPF`S FALL IN THE .20"-.40" RANGE. FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE-OMEGA ALIGNMENT ARGUES FOR SNOW- WATER RATIOS AROUND 15-1 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW WHICH SHUD BE BETWEEN AROUND 6PM TUES EVE THROUGH 3AM WED MORNING. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD 2-4 PERHAPS 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL. AN ALMOST TOTAL ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A MAINLY NUISANCE SNOWFALL. Is that what we have been having the last couple years nuisance snowfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Since we're making our guesses what NWS State College will say Ill go with 347PM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY all counties....generalized 2-5" of snow...and will mention east of I-81 and Sullivan counties as psbl spots for 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is some of discussion on the storm. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1151 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE QPF`S FALL IN THE .20"-.40" RANGE. FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE-OMEGA ALIGNMENT ARGUES FOR SNOW- WATER RATIOS AROUND 15-1 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW WHICH SHUD BE BETWEEN AROUND 6PM TUES EVE THROUGH 3AM WED MORNING. THIS ALL CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WIDESPREAD 2-4 PERHAPS 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL. AN ALMOST TOTAL ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALY AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF A MAINLY NUISANCE SNOWFALL. I really dislike state college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm gonna say 4:02pm...all counties and snow fall totals around 3-5" and the Susquehanna River will be mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm gonna say 4:02pm...all counties and snow fall totals around 3-5" and the Susquehanna River will be mentioned hahaha probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3:27:42 PM, and they'll mention the Laurels, Susquehanna, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm going to go out on a limb on my last allowed post of the day, and give some guess totals, we'll see how they pan out. IPT: 2.3" UNV:3.1" MDT:3.6" DUJ:4.1" AOO: 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time. I, too, was under the heavy weight of a WWA on Saturday and while we only got 2 inches, it seemed warranted. It snowed off-and-on pretty hard most of the midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Before we all get too critical of CTP, they just had a WWA for us on Saturday for 2" to 4" of snow. Where I live, we got 1/4". Three separate times this season I've been under an advisory that did NOT pan out, so I have no problem whatsoever with them being a bit reluctant to issue watches/warnings. As many have already posted, there is a lot of fear just amongst us that some areas are going to get shafted once again...perhaps they want to wait a bit to hone in on where that might be? Also, with the onset of precip possibly pushed back, they have a bit more time. They issued one for the entire CWA just five minutes ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They issued one for the entire CWA just five minutes ago, lol. Yep, just got a text from NWS..Cumberland county is under an ADV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I, too, was under the heavy weight of a WWA on Saturday and while we only got 2 inches, it seemed warranted. It snowed off-and-on pretty hard most of the midday. See, that's part of the problem, too. We had 30 minutes of snow from 8am - 830am, then intervals of clouds and sun the remainder of the day. On 2 occassions, we had a 5 minute snow shower. That was it. CTP covers such a large area, with great differences in sensible weather. Huge range in conditions to forecast for, especially in a situation such as unfolding tomorrow. There may be a huge area under their jurisdiction that receives advisory criteria snow, but there may another area that gets much less. Heck, they might even have some areas that get warning snows as well. Easy to sit our computers and say they should do this or that, much more difficult when they are the ones under the gun. I will agree that in general, they are usually slower to pull the trigger than neighboring offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM came more west...things are really getting interesting at the last minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM snow map. Brings .5 line back to Lancaster/Reading and getting pretty close to MDT. I don't buy this happening though, as off-hour NAMs are usually whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Issued at: 3:14 PM EST 1/10/11, expires at: 11:15 PM EST 1/10/11 Winter weather advisory in effect from 1 pm Tuesday to noon est Wednesday, The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow, which is in effect from 1 pm Tuesday to noon est Wednesday. Location, northwest mountains and laurel highlands. Precipitation type, snow. Accumulations, 3 to 6 inches. Timing, Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Winds, 10 to 15 mph. Impacts, snow covered and slippery roads. Northwest flow and lake enhanced snow showers are expected to follow for later in the week. Precautionary/preparedness actions, A winter weather advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Motorists should be especially cautious on bridges and overpasses, where slippery spots develop first. Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at, weather.gov/statecollege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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