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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects

Harry

By Harry,
in Central/Western States

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

Thickness of the 12z EURO continues to support good snow growth and ratios

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DAY LAT= 39.87 LON= -84.12 ELE= 1011

12Z JAN10

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 10-JAN -8.3 -10.2 1031 66 14 0.00 553 529

MON 18Z 10-JAN -1.9 -8.3 1029 47 33 0.00 553 530

TUE 00Z 11-JAN -4.9 -6.1 1028 57 81 0.00 554 532

TUE 06Z 11-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1026 65 100 0.00 551 531

TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.9 -7.2 1022 69 99 0.02 547 530

TUE 18Z 11-JAN -4.4 -9.0 1017 83 89 0.13 537 524

WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -12.4 1018 84 95 0.07 530 516

WED 06Z 12-JAN -6.6 -13.3 1019 86 91 0.01 529 515

WED 12Z 12-JAN -5.5 -12.6 1022 87 87 0.04 534 517

WED 18Z 12-JAN -4.5 -11.7 1026 75 80 0.01 538 518

THU 00Z 13-JAN -5.7 -12.4 1029 86 55 0.01 541 518

THU 06Z 13-JAN -7.7 -12.8 1031 85 40 0.01 543 519

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

Thickness of the 12z EURO continues to support good snow growth and ratios

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DAY LAT= 39.87 LON= -84.12 ELE= 1011

12Z JAN10

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 12Z 10-JAN -8.3 -10.2 1031 66 14 0.00 553 529

MON 18Z 10-JAN -1.9 -8.3 1029 47 33 0.00 553 530

TUE 00Z 11-JAN -4.9 -6.1 1028 57 81 0.00 554 532

TUE 06Z 11-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1026 65 100 0.00 551 531

TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.9 -7.2 1022 69 99 0.02 547 530

TUE 18Z 11-JAN -4.4 -9.0 1017 83 89 0.13 537 524

WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -12.4 1018 84 95 0.07 530 516

WED 06Z 12-JAN -6.6 -13.3 1019 86 91 0.01 529 515

WED 12Z 12-JAN -5.5 -12.6 1022 87 87 0.04 534 517

WED 18Z 12-JAN -4.5 -11.7 1026 75 80 0.01 538 518

THU 00Z 13-JAN -5.7 -12.4 1029 86 55 0.01 541 518

THU 06Z 13-JAN -7.7 -12.8 1031 85 40 0.01 543 519

Sorry the formatting makes that about unreadable

post-783-0-51354700-1294720884.png

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

god help you...lol

actually a lot of threats for pittsburgh and cmh go hand in hand....biggest diff is you guys get a lot more lake effect stuff.

Your right but there isn't much to tracking 1-2 inch lake effect snow showers. We usually get the same type of clippers as you guys and get stuck on either side of big event snows. In the summer our severe weather mostly comes thru Ohio first.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Your right but there isn't much to tracking 1-2 inch lake effect snow showers. We usually get the same type of clippers as you guys and get stuck on either side of big event snows. In the summer our severe weather mostly comes thru Ohio first.

you guys are also subject to the WTOD like us when a storm approaches from the southwest and that warmth surges right up the ohio river valley. See, we share a lot of the same frustrations too. lol

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KPITblizz

KPITblizz

Posted
Posted

00Z Euro

DET: 0.29

DTW: 0.29

PTK: 0.28

TOL: 0.31

FDY: 0.30

BTL: 0.23

GRR: 0.21

IND: 0.24

CMH: 0.21

CLE: 0.36

DAY: 0.27

ORD: 0.22

MKE: 0.17

PIA: 0.28

SDF: 0.16

Really hate to be "that guy", but how much does it show for PIT if you getta chance?

Thanks

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Well all the models are looking good! The Euro, which was dry all week, has come around to 0.30", an exact match to the NAM and the 6z GFS looks better too!. DTX has issued an advisory for total storm accumulations of 4", which to me is kinda weird to not say a range (though in the forecast they do say 2-3" today and up to 2" tonight, which is technically 4-5").

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER

OF OUR AREA FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE

THE REGION ROUGHLY FROM PORT HURON TO PONTIAC TO ANN ARBOR AND SOUTH

TO THE OHIO BORDER. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE MAINLY TO

HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE

MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK EVENING DRIVING PERIOD AND FOR SNOWFALL OF

2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE 6 HOUR PERIOD FROM ABOUT 3 PM TO 9

PM. LIGHTER SNOW IN ADVANCE OF AND TRAILING THE PEAK PERIOD WILL

RESULT IN SYSTEM TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY

SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE AROUND SE MICHIGAN, THE

FORECAST TREND WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW

ACCUMULATION TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE HURON INTO

THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB, MAINLY TONIGHT.

JUDGING FROM THE SUITE OF OBSERVATIONS AT PRESS TIME, THE LATEST

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ABOUT ON TRACK WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT

THE LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO THE

00Z DTX SOUNDING. ALL OF THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE ONSET TIMING BY

NOON NEAR THE OHIO BORDER TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THUMB

AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. MODEL DEPICTIONS

OF SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOW GOOD PRESSURE ADVECTION ON

THE 285K SURFACE CARRYING 1 TO 2 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OVER LOWER

MICHIGAN. THIS SUGGESTS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE

PERIOD FROM ABOUT NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH MOST OF

THAT COMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL TROWAL

DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IT IS

EXPECTED THAT THE CENTER OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE BY TO

OUR SOUTH BUT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TROWAL AXIS AS IT

MOVES ABOUT DIRECTLY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO

SHOW GOOD THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES FOR SNOW GROWTH. WHILE NOT

ISOTHERMAL, THE SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND RESPECTABLE

RESIDENCE TIME IN THE DGZ DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. ALL

TOGETHER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW JUST

IN TIME TO HAMPER THE EVENING COMMUTE IN THE DETROIT AREA.

THE OTHER CONCERN IN OUR AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM

LAKE HURON INTO THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THE NAM12 INDICATES A

FAIRLY STRONG COMPONENT OF VERTICAL MOTION CENTERED AROUND 850 MB TO

GO ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING ON THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK

OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA INDICATE INCREASING

CONVECTIVE DEPTH, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MODEST

INSTABILITY FROM THE LAKE SURFACE USING A WATER TEMP OF 3C. FOR NOW,

DECIDED TO JUST INCREASE THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION THERE INTO THE 2 TO

4 INCH RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE CONSIDERING MOST OF THAT

WILL FALL FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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JayPSU

JayPSU

Posted
Posted

Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN.

Everybody be sure to read the announcement about the AmericanWx WRF.

Here are a few images from the 00z run!

refl-12.png

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vespasian70

vespasian70

Posted
Posted

Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN.

I was thinking the same thing Jay. Looks to pivot into central OH in a few hours too.

Perhaps CMH will be in a good spot after all...

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN.

yep....looks like the greatest intensity right now is over the southern half of IN/ sw OH and even N. KY heading right towards us.

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TimChgo9

TimChgo9

Posted
Posted

Light to moderate snow falling at the moment. WWA was issued by LOT sometime in the overnight hours. They are thinking 3"-5" now for the area.

I am calling 4" possibly for MBY (W/C Cook Co.) don't think I will go much above that.

Edited to add: 1" or so is down now...

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OhioValleyWx

OhioValleyWx

Posted
Posted

In northeast Montgomery Coutny, OH....7 miles ENE of Dayton I am coming in with a shade under 4" at last measure about 15 minutes ago. 3 7/8" is the closest accurate measurement. Still light snow so eclipsing 4" in the next 20 to 30 minutes looks good. Then add that to the 1 to 1.5" tonight expected in CAA and Lake Enhancement that 6" mark could get pretty close. I had 4-6" for the area I reside since last week and looks to be pretty close to being right in range.

Josh

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