dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Meh. We still need a trend NW........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 These bowling ball 500mb you want the 500mb low JUST south of you (by 50 miles or so). Anymore than that and you can start getting screwed because the thing is stacked (normally lows tilt NW or poleward with height) but here everything is pretty much stacked vertically. Important to watch that low track. The 18z NAM seems sort of weird and is doing some funny things with the vorticity...almost shearing it out for a time and redeveloping a 500mb low center SE. All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am not worried by the strung-out look of the 500mb vorts on the 18z American models. This seems to happen frequently in this time range....the models try to give credence to every possible vort max. In reality, one max will dominate and strengthen just ahead of the ULL. We should see it on the US models about 48hrs before the event. BTW, the 12z nam had a 150kt jet at 300mb blasting under the 500mb low, with the left exit region right over us. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment. Yes they do but the NAM does it in a sort of odd way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If we go conservative CT wide 6-12 some places will have nearly met their annual average on Jan 13 , perspective. If we get a 20" snowstorm here, still won't be 1/2 our avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am surprised 18" is being thrown out there...I am trying to not get my hopes up as far as amounts are concerned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We are now entering the dead zone....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am surprised 18" is being thrown out there...I am trying to not get my hopes up as far as amounts are concerned.... Yeah I am too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We are now entering the dead zone....... The Dead Zone is a lot more fun when the GFS shows us getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The Dead Zone is a lot more fun when the GFS shows us getting crushed. Yes,It is, But as with most of the storms so far this year, Thats not the case, Will eagerly await the 00z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ALB having fun with their AFD, BOX now has the East Slope at categorical 90% chance of snow Tuesday Night and 90% Wednesday. ALB also seems to feel a NW correction vector is quite possible. Should be fun times and I think the Maine crew won't get shut out of this one. It's a big bad monster coming to get us all. GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE. WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+ PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ALB having fun with their AFD, BOX now has the East Slope at categorical 90% chance of snow Tuesday Night and 90% Wednesday. ALB also seems to feel a NW correction vector is quite possible. Should be fun times and I think the Maine crew won't get shut out of this one. It's a big bad monster coming to get us all. I'm not worried at all about getting whiffed. What I don't want and think can easily happen is that I see 2-4 ". I'll be content with over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Check, for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would give most areas of sne a 100% chance of advisory and 70% chance warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am surprised 18" is being thrown out there...I am trying to not get my hopes up as far as amounts are concerned.... As for my forecast map, 12" - 18" was just the next interval. I probably should have put 12"+ instead. I do NOT think anyone will see 18" -- the storm moves through way too quickly for that. A couple jackpots of 15"-16" are possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I banged this convective drum this morning and discussed how feedbacks would lead to farther W track - concurred. December 9, 2005 folks whispers from the grave, 'remember me' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I banged this convective drum this morning and discussed how feedbacks would lead to farther W track - concurred. December 9, 2005 folks whispers from the grave, 'remember me' Help me remember...how did that turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I banged this convective drum this morning and discussed how feedbacks would lead to farther W track - concurred. December 9, 2005 folks whispers from the grave, 'remember me' The antecedent conditions were much warmer, thermal boundaries not as volatile, that was a backend loaded system, not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I banged this convective drum this morning and discussed how feedbacks would lead to farther W track - concurred. December 9, 2005 folks whispers from the grave, 'remember me' Keep banging that drum, and while you're at it pick the banjo as well. Want west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 amazing how many rapidly deepening SLPs we've seen off the MA/NE coastlines in the last 12 months or so. hasn't necessarily mattered much, but still kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Help me remember...how did that turn out? who cares - we're talking using it as lesson - but i get the sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment. Great explanation and I agree with the last sentence totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 who cares - we're talking using it as lesson - but i get the sarcasm haha...i thought he/she was being serious. might have been? not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 who cares - we're talking using it as lesson - but i get the sarcasm No honestly help me remember...I lived in Southern California at the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Keep banging that drum, and while you're at it pick the banjo as well. Want west. IMO...maybe I'm wrong.....but I don't think it goes near the BM. I could be wrong, and I'm not saying this out of bias or anything...just my gut. On the other hand, I don't think a major shift is going to happen either...west or east. Basically anywhere from the Cape to the BM is the goal post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 haha...i thought he/she was being serious. might have been? not sure. See bold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO...maybe I'm wrong.....but I don't think it goes near the BM. I could be wrong, and I'm not saying this out of bias or anything...just my gut. On the other hand, I don't think a major shift is going to happen either...west or east. Basically anywhere from the Cape to the BM is the goal post. yeah we may see some subtle movements...but i think the general theme will hold. we shouldn't (and haven't at all) seen major run-to-run jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No honestly help me remember...I lived in Southern California at the time... BOX area snowfall totals (12/9/05): http://www.erh.noaa....s/DEC9_2005.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 See bold... 12/9/05 is like a day in new england weather lore. almost every known type of weather phenomenon occurred in a matter of 6 hours across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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