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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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These bowling ball 500mb you want the 500mb low JUST south of you (by 50 miles or so). Anymore than that and you can start getting screwed because the thing is stacked (normally lows tilt NW or poleward with height) but here everything is pretty much stacked vertically. Important to watch that low track.

The 18z NAM seems sort of weird and is doing some funny things with the vorticity...almost shearing it out for a time and redeveloping a 500mb low center SE.

All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment.

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I am not worried by the strung-out look of the 500mb vorts on the 18z American models. This seems to happen frequently in this time range....the models try to give credence to every possible vort max. In reality, one max will dominate and strengthen just ahead of the ULL. We should see it on the US models about 48hrs before the event. BTW, the 12z nam had a 150kt jet at 300mb blasting under the 500mb low, with the left exit region right over us. Unreal.

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All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment.

Yes they do but the NAM does it in a sort of odd way.

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ALB having fun with their AFD, BOX now has the East Slope at categorical 90% chance of snow Tuesday Night and 90% Wednesday. ALB also seems to feel a NW correction vector is quite possible. Should be fun times and I think the Maine crew won't get shut out of this one. It's a big bad monster coming to get us all.

GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS

SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE

COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND

POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT

JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO

EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL

GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM

UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE

FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS

OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE

BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM

WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM

ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE.

WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE

CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES

LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND

ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C

TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE

ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS

TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+

PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT

WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST

HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST

IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW

ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD

COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS

IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON

VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK

VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN

CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS

THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING

OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF

THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON

VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED.

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ALB having fun with their AFD, BOX now has the East Slope at categorical 90% chance of snow Tuesday Night and 90% Wednesday. ALB also seems to feel a NW correction vector is quite possible. Should be fun times and I think the Maine crew won't get shut out of this one. It's a big bad monster coming to get us all.

I'm not worried at all about getting whiffed. What I don't want and think can easily happen is that I see 2-4 ". I'll be content with over 6".

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I am surprised 18" is being thrown out there...I am trying to not get my hopes up as far as amounts are concerned....

As for my forecast map, 12" - 18" was just the next interval. I probably should have put 12"+ instead. I do NOT think anyone will see 18" -- the storm moves through way too quickly for that. A couple jackpots of 15"-16" are possible though.

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I banged this convective drum this morning and discussed how feedbacks would lead to farther W track - concurred.

December 9, 2005 folks whispers from the grave, 'remember me'

The antecedent conditions were much warmer, thermal boundaries not as volatile, that was a backend loaded system, not seeing it.

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All the models do that. The gradient flow through the Mid Atlantic is insane, as the upper low rolls eastward, and heights don't collapse at all over the southeast. Vortcity gets quickly advected ahead of the mid level low, resulting in it stretching out and redeveloping eastward. That's what my point was before. There will be a distinct screwzone between the redevelopment.

Great explanation and I agree with the last sentence totally.

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Keep banging that drum, and while you're at it pick the banjo as well. Want west.

IMO...maybe I'm wrong.....but I don't think it goes near the BM. I could be wrong, and I'm not saying this out of bias or anything...just my gut. On the other hand, I don't think a major shift is going to happen either...west or east. Basically anywhere from the Cape to the BM is the goal post.

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IMO...maybe I'm wrong.....but I don't think it goes near the BM. I could be wrong, and I'm not saying this out of bias or anything...just my gut. On the other hand, I don't think a major shift is going to happen either...west or east. Basically anywhere from the Cape to the BM is the goal post.

yeah we may see some subtle movements...but i think the general theme will hold. we shouldn't (and haven't at all) seen major run-to-run jumps.

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