EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period. In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely. Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time. Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric. Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, FWIW-- Just watched JB's BIG DOG..... And He showed where the pattern is headed (COLD) where he thought a thaw was coming, So he said a updated winter forecast was coming prolly next Tuesday and there was going to be changes.... He looked like a whipped puppy !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, FWIW-- Just watched JB's BIG DOG..... And He showed where the pattern is headed (COLD) where he thought a thaw was coming, So he said a updated winter forecast was coming prolly next Tuesday and there was going to be changes.... He looked like a whipped puppy !!! I think a lot of us felt that way. We saw the cold first of December coming but didn't expect it through the whole month. Then the early January thaw got delayed. It keeps getting delayed. This could be the Winter we compare future ones to by the time its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations. Even though GA may not get much if any frozen from the system late week, I do think we are far from done winter-wise here, the longer range Euro ensembles are intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even though GA may not get much if any frozen from the system late week, I do think we are far from done winter-wise here, the longer range Euro ensembles are intriguing. Dang Cheeze. You are like the grinch. All those years of stealing our GA winter presents (crushing our wishcasts) and now your handing out statements like that. Your winter weather heart has grown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Regarding the 12z EC and the storm it has around 200 hrs... This was a phasing solution, much harder to predict even in the short term as we saw with the Christmas storm, and nearly impossible at this range to be modeled correctly. At 204 hrs, there is a closed 544dm H5 low just east of Little Rock with a piece of northern stream energy coming down through the central plains. It looks like it happens a little too far north and late this run, resulting in ice, but phasing of the parcels is beginning over W GA up through W NC at 216 hrs. Slide this southern stream sw south 300-400 miles, and verbatim, this would be a SN storm, not ice with the phase happening in southern GA. Needless to say, expect greater than normal flip flopping as the setup in much more complicated than the last storm with just one stream involved. Phases are harder to predict, especially more than 4 days out as a 6 hour difference in timing, or 100 miles difference in placement, yields a significantly different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Lake Rhodhiss (Catawba River) near morganton is froze over, this is a large lake and can't say I've ever known it to be froze over. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I certainly felt that way. My winter forecast is not doing to good right now either. To be honest the NEG PDO is RULLING the pattern right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Well, FWIW-- Just watched JB's BIG DOG..... And He showed where the pattern is headed (COLD) where he thought a thaw was coming, So he said a updated winter forecast was coming prolly next Tuesday and there was going to be changes.... He looked like a whipped puppy !!! I don't hardly ever look at his blog, but after the posts I checked it out. He certainly explained all the reasons why his winter forecast will bust in a big way.. He was putting up screen shots of the euro ensembles showing well below normal temps and saying this is when I predicted our thaw or torch. He looked disgusted, but I will give him some props for owning up. It will be interesting to see how he changes his tune in his updated forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2011013-0113/UnitedStates.A2011013.1900.1km.jpg 2011/013 - 01/13 at 19 :00 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 -40 diving into the Canadian prairies is impressive. -30 into the Great Lakes. Seems the 0z GFS has found the cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like it also sniffs the storm around the 25th again as well!!! Got to love model chasing when 2models are hinting at the same thing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Speaking of our pattern...here is something I found with regard to CLT monthly observed snowfall data (I wonder which of these years were La Nina years? I live in Belmont, NC (just a few miles S/SW of CLT International Airport). I wonder which of these years had La Nina signals? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/CLTmonthlySNobs.htm Here is the link to the main page: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/cltcli.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Its looking more and more like this week coming up is going to be a double shot of cold rain followed by a cold front. For sure not a good week if you spend a lot of time outdoors or work outdoors. It's been said about 10 million times but the pattern does look quite impressive and persistent, which is something we dont see a lot in the winters here. It seems like the pattern will relax for about a month while we sit and wait on action, certainly not the case this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Strong, I always find it interesting snow cover doesn't show up as bright/as easily as other areas in north ga/western carolinas thanks to all the trees. Meanwhile you look at there toward ms, ark, etc and it shows up much better because of all the flat fields out that way. Sometimes I find this frustrating because it makes it look like it hasn't snowed as much as it really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Strong, I always find it interesting snow cover doesn't show up as bright/as easily as other areas in north ga/western carolinas thanks to all the trees. Meanwhile you look at there toward ms, ark, etc and it shows up much better because of all the flat fields out that way. Sometimes I find this frustrating because it makes it look like it hasn't snowed as much as it really has. That makes a lot of sense. I wondered about that when I looked at it. I know that our area had as much or more snow and less melting than many areas in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow! 18z NAM goes crazy with QPF over coastal NC, large area of 2-3" amounts, 12z EC was <0.25" here for the event, GFS a little wetter but has the heaviest axis in north central NC, going to be interesting to see which verifies, but 2" this time of year here is rare... Also, keep a frozen eye on the second wave after this if your in western NC, and maybe even a third development, on the 21st round about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 WOW look how negative the NAO is!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 WOW look how negative the NAO is!!!!! was (fixed) This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH -40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. cold and more cold per FFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 One thing that does look questionable as we go forward is a consistent - NAO. I know it's progged to go briefly negative by the EURO, but then it heads back to positive territory at the same time we seemingly build a beautiful + PNA. I wish we could link the two together sometime in February as this would undoubtedly give us opportunity in the most climatalogically favorable month for winter weather. It appears the weakening Lanina is really giving the Pacific the ability to cooperate. It will be interesting to see if we can build more blocking. It's happened all winter, would be nice to see it happen again later this month or in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 @ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 @ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been. Ummm No........... That was a graph showing the NAO through the end of December. It's mid January now (just so you know). Your post said Look how negative the NAO IS.,,,,,,,,, That was simply not true. You need to chill out and get your facts straight before making post that are wrong. Read more post less...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ummm No........... That was a graph showing the NAO through the end of December. It's mid January now (just so you know). Your post said Look how negative the NAO IS.,,,,,,,,, That was simply not true. You need to chill out and get your facts straight before making post that are wrong. Read more post less...... @ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been. Same can be said about you haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 @ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been. Same can be said about you haha Sorry dude but you're wrong, the way you stated it inferred that currently the NAO was in the tank...which it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 just looking at this time series of the NAO, I can see that many of the Winter storms here have coincided with these periods. Of course there's a few in between transistions and even in +NAO but much more often than not, the Southeast needs a neg. NAO. It usually comes with a split pacific of sorts and displaced storm track. This long NAO looks about as big as any on the graph, up there with 52-52, 62-63, 77-78. Makes you wonder how long we can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry dude but you're wrong, the way you stated it inferred that currently the NAO was in the tank...which it is not. Look at FoothillsNC's posting. There's a difference between meteorology and climatology... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Look at FoothillsNC's posting. There's a difference between meteorology and climatology... Why don't you update your profile first with the location, before starting an argument here about the differences between climo and a Met degree. Furthermore, please do not link a users profile in bold when replying in text, we know who the person is, and it is frowned upon. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why don't you update your profile first with the location, before starting an argument here about the differences between climo and a Met degree. Furthermore, please do not link a users profile in bold when replying in text, we know who the person is, and it is frowned upon. Thanks This forum is meant for scientific debates not for drama and slander. So please provide a counterexample climatologically about the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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