Cyric297 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I wonder why we haven't gotten into the teens. I thought that was a lock this wk? I think the idea was that tonight would be the coldest of the week, depending on the wind. The forecasted temp for my area tonight is 17. So I think we still have a shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The surface map now shows 2 high centers, one in Northeast TN and another just east of Memphis. Its going to be a cold night in the Southeast, already 13 in Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I had an 8am class and had to walk across state's campus this morning and I was about to die. I was ready to kiss winter goodbye this morning. I hear ya, I am less than a mile from campus (I'm actually [or practically] on centennial campus) and leaving for work this morning made me curse the fact that my heated seats stopped working! However, I'm still not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet let me get some ski trips in first, then I'll be ready... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z GFS @132 Looks alot different than the 18z GFS did @138 I am a wennie here but that looks like a big change!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Last report from Belmont received 3 minutes 38 seconds ago Wind Calm Temp 23F Humidity 72% Dewpoint 15F Pressure 1029.6 mb Thanks for the link UNCCMETGrad!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah, the models don't have a handle on this up-coming period. All eyes will be on this next week for sure......17.0 degrees right now. Going to make a run at 10 by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Does the Euro have anything stirring up in this mornings run? TIA for any input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Brr! 2 this am! No school again, that is 9 days this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like I'm bottoming out at 12F this morning..... not looking forward to walking out to the car this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like I'm bottoming out at 12F this morning..... not looking forward to walking out to the car this morning Just walked the dog, with good boots and a heavy parka it aint so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Does the Euro have anything stirring up in this mornings run? TIA for any input. Like was mentioned in the other thread the Euro looked good at the end of the week. Had some moisture building in TX. while we had cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 11.8 feels like Florida compared to Rosie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BEYOND THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A DEEP SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WX TO THE AREA IN THE 24/25 JAN PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS A FULL LATITUDE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SW U.S. UPPER LOW TO BE FOUND. THERE IS A 30DM HEIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AT 240 HRS ACROSS THE SW U.S. AT ANY RATE...A VAST AREA OF ARCTIC AIR REMAINS POOLED ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GFS HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF VERY COLD -30C TO -40C AIR CROSSING THE N POLE FROM RUSSIA INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALL BE VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH...BUT CLEARLY WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER. The latest and greatest from FFC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 9 degrees............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BEYOND THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A DEEP SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WX TO THE AREA IN THE 24/25 JAN PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS A FULL LATITUDE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SW U.S. UPPER LOW TO BE FOUND. THERE IS A 30DM HEIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AT 240 HRS ACROSS THE SW U.S. AT ANY RATE...A VAST AREA OF ARCTIC AIR REMAINS POOLED ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GFS HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF VERY COLD -30C TO -40C AIR CROSSING THE N POLE FROM RUSSIA INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALL BE VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH...BUT CLEARLY WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER. The latest and greatest from FFC! I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18 here this morning. No snow pack to speak of, although I will note that there are rather large icy patches still intact in shaded north facing exposures. While we did not get much in the way of accumulation this last go'round, what did accumulate is quite dense. I'm expecting a slow and brief warm up over the next few days with then a return to the cold and possibly a setup for more wintery weather after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold). Yep. By Wednesday our next storm has gone by, and another blast of cold air comes in but maybe not as widespread as this one in the Southeast, then we have to start watching where the systems dropping down the West Coast go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold). Going to really make the gas companies happy' i have run thru all I purchased at the pre- buy/lower rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it's cool seeing the low readings to my south and west. I've been busy the past couple days, but I assume you guys still have snow cover. Meanwhile, up here, where there is no snow cover, my temp only made it down to 20. Anyway, looking at the LR...as already mentioned the GFS and EURO could not be further apart. Quite a spread between the two. If the EURO is correct...then we could possibly be looking at another storm in the 10-12 day range that might be similar to what we just had (i.e. southwest shortwave ejecting east spawning Gulf low). Also, on the main forum it has been said that the new EURO weeklies keep the cold in the east for the next month, so we should at least have one more shot (perhaps several) at widespread snow in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ...7 degrees at 8:30 a.m. Coldest of the season. 5 at Asheville Airport, 9 at Morganton Airport, and 15 at Rutherfordton Field. 8 degrees difference for just 12 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 it's cool seeing the low readings to my south and west. I've been busy the past couple days, but I assume you guys still have snow cover. Meanwhile, up here, where there is no snow cover, my temp only made it down to 20. Anyway, looking at the LR...as already mentioned the GFS and EURO could not be further apart. Quite a spread between the two. If the EURO is correct...then we could possibly be looking at another storm in the 10-12 day range that might be similar to what we just had (i.e. southwest shortwave ejecting east spawning Gulf low). Also, on the main forum it has been said that the new EURO weeklies keep the cold in the east for the next month, so we should at least have one more shot (perhaps several) at widespread snow in the southeast. could we get some accumulating snow on the SC coast please 19 on the car therm this morning 2 miles inland from the beach brrrr, looking forward to the the brief relax in the cold over the MLK holiday this weekend, may get in some golf with upper 50's to near 60 Sunday-Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Interesting that although Charlotte dropped to 14 this morning with snowcover, it still doesn't outdo the cold of December, which featured a 10 degree and 12 degree reading with bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 bottomed out at 10 last night still doesn't beat the December cold where I dropped down to 7.4 with no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 19 F in Savannah!! Coldest of the winter to date In Dec.. there were 4 21's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 19 F in Savannah!! Coldest of the winter to date In Dec.. there were 4 21's. Are you down there for good now? You weren't in atlanta with these 2 storms right? It's a shame after all this time you weren't in atlanta for these past two storms. You have been throwing out statistics forever about atlanta climo and in general it wasn't good (in terms of snow amounts) and because of that I have been hoping for a long time you and atlanta get drilled to improve those statistics lol. The savannah statistics you give are interesting but they are a far cry in terms of interesting from your work on atlanta climo. I hope you aren't down there for good now. BTW, I've been wondering, do you know if all this cold is having an effect on wildlife and vegetation down there? It's hard to imagine this relentless cold not having some sort of effect on wildlife and vegetation in places that typically don't stay consistently cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period. In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely. Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time. Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just some observations and opinions from what I see so far. Clearly the -AO is dominating the moderate La Nina and warm MJO phases most of the way which has been really amazing to watch.Maybe this has happened in the past but I've never seen anything like this. We're now getting a strong MJO coming into 6 and forecasted to stay strong and go to 7 and 8 in about 7-14 days.Because of the moderate La Nina,no MJO has been able to move east and break through for several months to the later phases but this one may have a chance. If we can keep the -AO(forecasted to bottom again soon)with a strong MJO and healthy snowcover to the north,it may get really active soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period. In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely. Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time. Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric. Thanks for all the input you give to all of us here in GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here is an excerpt from my forecast. I think someone hit the wrong button or we should name them Captain Obvious. Tonight: Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 15. Calm wind. Saturday: Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period. In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely. Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time. Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric. Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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