earthlight Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's about 4am..so I will just copy and paste a disco I wrote earlier for nymetrowx. Euro image is below. -- The pattern becomes convoluted and on some models quite anomalous by the end of the week with dramatic differences amongst guidance, leading to a very low confidence forecast. Initially a zonal upper air flow across the region Wednesday and Thursday with fair weather likely..but a chance of snow showers increasing by the end of that period. The differences begin in the guidance handling of the Polar Vortex which will be situated over Central Canada. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means are in very good agreement on the development of a large -NAO block from Greenland..towards Baffin Island..and then retrograding westward towards Central Canada. This will force the Polar Vortex underneath this block into New England, or as the 00z/03 Euro suggests..into the Mid Atlantic. The models are struggling immensely with the handling of the specific vorticity and shortwaves rotating around the Polar Vortex. There is general agreement that there will be one stronger feature..which may or may not produce a large system (Miller B-type nature) redeveloping off the coast of the Mid Atlantic or New England. The GEFS means are very mundane with this potential...while the ECMWF/ECMWF Ensembles and to an extent the GGEM are more robust. At this point it is all a moot point..as the shortwaves are not well sampled and the potential remains highly suspect. That being said..there is more confidence than usual for at least a light snow event..given the fact that the aforementioned blocking is well modeled and will force the PV underneath into or near our latitude. Given that..we included slight chance pops through the weekend. For now..the big storm remains a potential, but an outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 heres the hr 120 euro ens mean...pretty good spread building back towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 hr 216 euro ens mean for the later possible event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The ensembles of many models have been indicating the possibility of coastal re-development near the DelMarva with a stalling/bombing off of the low near the NJ coast for many days now. This solution does not surprise me in the least. This is exactly what the ensembles have been trying to tell us for days. The Nogaps and GFS are now on board for a bombing low but the GFS and NOGAPS do it just a little further north for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm skeptical not just because of the ridiculous solution the Euro paints, but also because of a little Euro curse. So far this winter, our big storms have happened when the Euro consistently showed a big storm, only to take it away (in right around this range) but then bring it back at the last minute. The Euro hasn't showed anything close to this solution so far in its past runs. Maybe it suffered from "initilization errors" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With so many pieces of vorticity spinning around our displaced PV, it is going to be really tough figuring out an actual solution until we are within 24-36 hours of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 is it time to start saying its only the euro like we say about the gfs fantasy storms? Its been pretty bad but im certainly hoping somehow its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm skeptical not just because of the ridiculous solution the Euro paints, but also because of a little Euro curse. So far this winter, our big storms have happened when the Euro consistently showed a big storm, only to take it away (in right around this range) but then bring it back at the last minute. The Euro hasn't showed anything close to this solution so far in its past runs. Maybe it suffered from "initilization errors" lol. I'm hereby nominating " initilization errors " as the phrase of this winter haha....back to the weather there is def a good possibility of a decent size system atleast for the upper midatlantic and new england over the next two weeks, the pattern is appearing to return to a cold/blocky regime with potential for east coast cyclogenesis we will see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Not that it means anything but Philly's local channels are forecasting basically nothing or a few snow showers for this time period this morning....Weather Channel has zilch in the 5 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 359 AM EST MON JAN 03 2011 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 07 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 AN INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA OF THE CONUS WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL HGTS AS RIDGING OVER THE NRN PAC/ALASKA AND VICINITY ENCOURAGES HGT FALLS TO SINK SWD OVER THE WRN STATES... AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALBEIT A WEAKENING ONE OVER NRN CANADA KEEPS HGTS LOW OVER THE EAST ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WITHIN A DEEP ERN CONUS MEAN TROF THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFS WITH THE PATH OF CLOSED LOW ENERGY FCST TO BE OVER ONTARIO AS OF EARLY DAY 3 THU AND/OR UPSTREAM ENERGY THAT MAY UNDERCUT THE CLOSED LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF TAKES AN EXTREMELY SRN TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN A DEEP WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT IS FARTHER SWWD THAN NEARLY ALL OTHER GUIDANCE BY EARLY DAY 5 SAT. AT THAT TIME THE 00Z ECMWF POSN IS FARTHER SWWD THAN ALL BUT ONE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND ALL 00Z GEFS/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 00Z GFS COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALOFT BUT ITS SFC EVOLUTION SHOWS SOME DETAILS THAT ARE NOT INDICATED IN THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS. THE CANADIAN GLBL USES UPSTREAM ENERGY TO GENERATE A PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST FRI NIGHT. FARTHER WWD... THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS TO BRING NERN PAC/WRN CANADA HGT FALLS INTO THE WEST. 00Z ECMWF TIMING IS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE CLOSED LOW WHICH THE MODEL DEVELOPS JUST NE OF MT IS CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLN. ACROSS THE SRN STREAM THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED MODEL CLUSTERING WITH RESPECT TO THE EWD EJECTION OF A CLOSED LOW FCST TO BE SW OF CA DAY 3 THU AND PROGRESSION OF AN ASSOC SFC WAVE. THE GEFS MEAN IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS RELATIVELY FAST AS IT REFLECTS EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT WERE FASTER THAN THE NEW 00Z RUN AND OTHER LATEST MODEL SOLNS. CONFIDENCE IN A NUMBER OF OPERATIONAL MODEL SPECIFICS IS SUFFICIENTLY LACKING TO FAVOR A BLEND OF 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7 THU-MON FCST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL BLEND WERE MADE ON ONE OR MORE DAYS TO INCREASE DEFINITION SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC. IN ADDITION SOME DEFINITION WAS ADDED TO THE EXPECTED SRN STREAM WAVE IN LIGHT OF IMPROVED MODEL CLUSTERING. TIMING WAS ADJUSTED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN LIGHT OF PRIOR CONTINUITY THAT WAS FASTER. RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 All I have to say about the HPC discussion is, "model initialization errors". Need I say more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we need to move beyond that 0z Euro run because in reality its got little chance of going down that way. The PHL area needs to hear more about the storm behind this upcoming clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 All I have to say about the HPC discussion is, "model initialization errors". Need I say more? Here we go again with the conspiracy theories. They go with a compromise of the GFS/ECMWF across the board for the systems prior to it reaching the EC. Why do I see all the post about a few members forcing the HPC mets out of the forum when it's obvious that it wasn't just them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With so many pieces of vorticity spinning around our displaced PV, it is going to be really tough figuring out an actual solution until we are within 24-36 hours of this event. Glad too see you found your way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we need to move beyond that 0z Euro run because in reality its got little chance of going down that way. The PHL area needs to hear more about the storm behind this upcoming clipper. to my understanding.......that is pretty much how DT is thinking about the upcoming 2 storms too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 All I have to say about the HPC discussion is, "model initialization errors". Need I say more? Cheap shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 2nd run in a row with the Euro showing a SECS/MECS a long the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With the last system...the GFS was the first to recognize the system....then it lost it and the EC was a far western outlier. 48-54 hours prior the GFS jumped back on board and the EC lost the system. In reality a solution close to the EC ensemble mean verified. I'm not saying the pattern is going to repeat itself to a T but yet again the GFS was the first to catch on...then jumped ship and now the EC is the western outlier. Personally I hope we miss out on this one as I'm departing ACY for West Palm Beach at 5:30pm Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 GFS 6z was a lot better than 0z last night, and trended the Euro's direction (but still looks very messy with different vorts and strings out the whole system). It means that even if something as absurd as the 0z Euro doesn't happen, we can get some sort of compromise and end up with at least a good event. We just need for it to dig a little further than the GFS has it now and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Cheap shot. Cheap shot, but I have to admit they deserve it after what happened last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we need to move beyond that 0z Euro run because in reality its got little chance of going down that way. The PHL area needs to hear more about the storm behind this upcoming clipper. Why don't we take one storm at a time instead of skipping over one. In this pattern, anything can happen. So relax and let it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Cheap shot, but I have to admit they deserve it after what happened last time. In HPC's defense....they needed to note the initialization errors if they existed. As it turns out, they didn't have a large effect on the eventual outcome but that was unknown at the time. What they should have simply said was that that particular model suite was a low confidence forecast and that it was going to take another cycle to determine what effects if any the initialization errors had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 In HPC's defense....they needed to note the initialization errors if they existed. As it turns out, they didn't have a large effect on the eventual outcome but that was unknown at the time. What they should have simply said was that that particular model suite was a low confidence forecast and that it was going to take another cycle to determine what effects if any the initialization errors had. My biggest beef with how they handled it is not one time did they say what exactly the initilization errors were. It would have helped make their statement more believeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 My biggest beef with how they handled it is not one time did they say what exactly the initilization errors were. It would have helped make their statement more believeable. I don't even recall the exact discussion you're talking about, but HPC always explains initialization errors in the Model Diagnostic Discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't even recall the exact discussion you're talking about, but HPC always explains initialization errors in the Model Diagnostic Discussion. they did say what the problem was...it had to do with energy dropping down through the midwest from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 This was posted in the main thread...from HPC discussion VALID 12Z FRI JAN 07 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 10 2011 THE MAIN ALTERATION TO THE UPDATED PRELIM PROGS WAS TO ADJUST SWWDA POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM ALONG THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST IN THE DAY4-6 FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS A RATHEREXTREME SWRN OUTLIER IN DROPPING A PIECE OF POLAR VORTEX SSE ALLTHE WAY FROM HUDSON BAY TO VA... THE 06Z/03 GFS HAS TRENDED A BITTOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SAT...GIVING A NEWD ADJUSTED ECMWFSCENARIO SOME CREDIBILITY. THIS MAINTAINS REASONABLE HPCCONTINUITY WITH THIS POTENTIAL E COAST SYS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.WHILE NOT OVERPLAYING ANALOGS... I STILL WANT TO POINT OUT SOMESIMILARITY IN THE PRESENT HPC SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND TO THAT OF FEB6 1978...ESPECIALLY AT 500 MILLIBARS... WHICH WAS A MAJOR BLIZZARDFOR ERN PA/NY/NEW ENG. THE 00Z ECENS AND 06Z GEFS MODEL MEANS SUGGEST THAT AN ANOTHERAREA TO WATCH CONCERNS THE NEW TROF DIGGING INTO THE WERNSTATES... WHERE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEBERS SUGGEST A DEEPER TROF EARLYNEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't even recall the exact discussion you're talking about, but HPC always explains initialization errors in the Model Diagnostic Discussion. That was the 12z GFS run from Christmas Eve. They did make mention to the region of concern and had all other guidance against the gfs at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I think we need to move beyond that 0z Euro run because in reality its got little chance of going down that way. The PHL area needs to hear more about the storm behind this upcoming clipper. Agree man...lets forget about the possible acumlating snowfall for friday and talk about a 200+ hr hecs....sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agree man...lets forget about the possible acumlating snowfall for friday and talk about a 200+ hr hecs....sounds good to me LOL. Seriously. Even if Euro is wrong, we all still have a decent shot at 2" to up to 6". And people want to look at 200 hours? Really dont get some posters on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 My biggest beef with how they handled it is not one time did they say what exactly the initilization errors were. It would have helped make their statement more believeable. I thought it was hilarious how they were still saying initialization errors even after the entire Christmas day 00z suite came in with a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.