September Nor'Easter Obvs Thread

[Brewbeer]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t have a wx station . No one in your area had anywhere near 7”. Just making stuff up . Pretty sad in all seriousness 

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up

pretty sad in all "seriousness"

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

off to Hampton beach to see high tide come in.. I know there wont be much flooding but maybe walk the beach after and find something neat.. 

Had a weenie friend go to Hampton Beach today.  Sand drifts along the boardwalk were NUTZ!  Has @CoastalWx ever seen such before in GHG????
 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well. 

"communicated quite well," yah, to the point that ppl were ticked that so many *indoor* events were cancelled and ppl treated it like a snowstorm raid the grocery store! 

From a fcst model perspective, they nailed it, as you said.  It indeed did end up being the biggest Sep nor'easter on record for the region, not only for rain/wind, but also for duration as well.  Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be.  Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved.  Contrary to popular belief, the wx is not becoming less forecastable or "unrecognizable" w/ warmer mean temps.  I have to state this at times in discussions -- the laws of physics and thermodynamics do not change b/c temps on avg change (up or down).  Water still freezes at 0 C, latent heat of fusion/vaporization/sublimation remains the same, the sun angle at any given latitude is still the same every year on any given date, etc.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics!  When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind!

One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!



 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins?  You never would hear the end of it!  Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth!  I can't get out of my house!!!""

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution. 

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast.

What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip.  A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in.

But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise.  In the end, it delivered big many areas.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be.  Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved. 

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events?

It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.  

[NeonPeon]

Good lord. Its finally leaving us. I hated this event. On the ground, there was nothing interesting. Just 4 days of rain. Another ruined weekend. And what's the best I can say about it? Looked nifty on satellite? Was well forecast?

Even these rain totals aren't that remarkable for this long a duration event.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

That's major problem these days.  No accountability.  Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top.  Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content.  It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred. 

When you say "local TV stations" I assume you just mean those that you get in your viewing areas in CT.? Not every TV market is the same, some are more out of control w/ hype than other and intense (you should see the OKC market!).  Not all markets have the same caliber OCMs as to overall met knowledge or the OCM able to do things in a reasonable/balanced way for wx presentation as the news director is breathing down their necks micromanaging and saying hype to the max.  Since wx is the #1 reason why ppl watch local news, I don't have to say how intense and competitive it is these days at many TV stations.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. 

@weatherwiz posts are solid and make excellent points.  Good debate/discussion material!

"just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped,"

Wx is almost always the lead story.  Even when nothing is going on, the newscast will throw to the wx right away and talk about how sunny it was today, and never not let an excuse happen for them to say "WE'RE TRACKING!" even if it is clouds or a slight change in temp!

This is fluff and obvious to the viewer.  That time could be used to report on much more important news out there (not like there isn't enough out there).


"Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision."

Correct, but there is cause and effect here.  When you hype things to the max, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary, that has real psychological impacts and skews perception big time.  Even if you know better and are well-versed in the basics as to wx, say as an EM, this still will sway your objectivity subconsciously, and result in decisions that are not always the best.  Also, even if you know better and do not let this influence you, external pressures socially/politically/economically amped up by the hype are a factor and make you do things you otherwise would not do.  

Do not underestimate the bandwagon logical fallacy.  That is, if "everyone" says this or that is true or is going to happen, then it *must* be true or going to happen!  This is known social science and human psychology.

Also, as mets and wx enthusiasts, we can't let our wx knowledge bias us here.  Yes, WE know the deal and how to interpret/read between the lines when a wx event is fcst, scaling and quantifying things correctly, but the vast majority out there have no idea, and given the info overload these days and not knowing what is what from it, you can't really blame the public for being skeptical/distrustful, which leads me to this:

"Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. "

I don't know about that.  In some sectors/fields, yes, but from a public POV?

I'll never forget what I heard in a grocery line some years ago.  A storm was coming, and one person talking to another said, "last time they said it was not going to hit, and it did, so maybe this time it won't b/c they say it will!"  What kind of logic is that!?   But you see the notions and perceptions out there!

[78Blizzard]

Final total event of 7.93".

[Prismshine Productions]

Imagine if it was winter

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. 

Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me. 

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations.  Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to.

If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well.  This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media.

Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings.

Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England.   Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976.  "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!"  O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks!  That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact  It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense.  Sandy 's track was exceptional.   But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!" 
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree the majority of storms will have overs and unders but can't the forecasters adjust their forecasts based on what is actually taking place?

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events.  0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst?  That is practically useless for most.  Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ?????

Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it!  Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important!  Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Winds are ripping... waves and splash over is awesome at high tide ill post pics when I get home later but this is awesome! 

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in?  I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity. 

The way even basic TV services continue to increase in costs has become a major issue, and I have read that networks are pushing to be able to *charge* you for their station access, when it always has been free w/ antennas w/o cable.  Yes, that would conflict w/ FCC regulations I think but never understated the power of lobby.

The entire TV landscape is becoming a CF.  Streaming was supposed to be the panacea, but now it is more expensive than cable w/ regular price increases way ahead of inflation.  And for sports fans?  Trying to find *where* your local or fav team will be on, not just when, is becoming absurd.  Sometimes you do not even know the day before what streaming service/station a particular game will be on!  And just wait until the SB becomes PPV!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

sports is the same way. so many click bait articles when it comes to sports

I am only a casual sports fan, so verify this for me.  It has been said that its all about now the stupid drama OFF the field, like contracts, what this player said, a team potentially moving, etc, than the games themselves!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

look out, an incredibly dangerous storm is coming.  not good

The biggest storm to impact the region in "HALF A YEAR!"  LOL. Who says that in regular talk?  Saying "6 months" is not dramatic enough, use "year" to make it sound "longer."  You see how micromanaged wording is for max effect.

This is good news from the Southern Rockies to the Lower MS Valley b/c this sig rain is badly needed b/c of drought conditions.  You never hear about that, do you?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events?

It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.  

Good questions!

Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%.  That requires zero met skills.  Anyone can say that and sound awesome!

But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie!

Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down,  Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm.  And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall.  Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022.  And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt.  Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt!  And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall.  Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year.

The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely!  And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected.  I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!
 

[moneypitmike]

Final here was 7.54"

[kdxken]

Just went outside. It's not raining.

[Lava Rock]

0.90".

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Good questions!

Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%.  That requires zero met skills.  Anyone can say that and sound awesome!

But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie!

Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down,  Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm.  And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall.  Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022.  And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt.  Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt!  And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall.  Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year.

The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely!  And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected.  I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!
 

That was 1/2/14. Extremely cold event for snow. I think Logan dropped to 0F at one point with moderate snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

+.06 today.... 2.44 event total.

[dendrite]

Looks like 1.93” may be it

[kdxken]

Courtesy of a huge acorn. On oak Street no less.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up

pretty sad in all "seriousness"

I report exact data rainfall and temps from a scientific wx station. . What kind of station do you have ? You seem very old fashioned and behind the times, so I’m guessing an old mercury thermometer mounted outside the kitchen window all rusted out. 

[tunafish]

22 hours ago, tunafish said:

0.83 + 2.45 = 3.28" event total

+0.93" = 4.21" event total

Looking at my five years of CoCoRAHS data, 3 of my top 10 rainfall obs are from this year - all around 2.50" for the 7am-7am period.  

All that despite being still well BN on the year.