October 2026 general discussion

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

F Florida

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, last October and November, and December too…you were in a bad place, and you were as negative as could be(granted…you had a string of misfortune, so we all can understand the feeling).    So that’s why he lumped you in.  I think Vortex95 would agree. 

He’s still learning from me.

[ineedsnow]

ICON i know but looking interesting at hr 168

[ineedsnow]

Hr 180  has that piece of energy diving in like the Euro had the other night..  heading NNW at the end of the run 

[Prismshine Productions]

Hr 180  has that piece of energy diving in like the Euro had the other night..  heading NNW at the end of the run 

Keep going it will be a big problem

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Don’t do it 

[Prismshine Productions]

Don’t do it 

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance

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[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Oh you’re doing it. Doing it well. 

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

F Florida

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

[dryslot]

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

[dryslot]

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South 

[Modfan2]

Seems like a pretty unorganized line in NYS, and I don’t see us here EOR clearing any; nothing more than gusty/showery front passage?

[vortex95]

On 10/14/2026 at 5:10 PM, GaWx said:

 
 There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:


-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:


-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):


1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf

2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html



 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic.  Feb 1983 and Jan 2016.  So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that.  And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec!

Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG/Brockton), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mug shorts of the local BOS OCMs.  At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop.  The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx)  That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates!

So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Forecast the High…we know the rest. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic.  Feb 1983 and Jan 2016.
So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that.  And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec!

Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mugs shorts of the local BOS OCMs.  At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop.  The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx)  That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates!

So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

 

Lots of negative Nellie’s…you know the crew. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

Can we annex the area between Marco and Clearwater?

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

We know, You already have started.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice. 

Trip scheduled up the county for 2/1-2/5.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

This. Some of my family was asking if I wanted to go south for Christmas when I usually host up here. I politely declined and told my wife separately HELL no.

I’ve had plenty of snowless winters in the south and the CT river valley and now that we have a place in SLK you think I’m going to give this up for a 70° Christmas? Absolutely not.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. Some of my family was asking if I wanted to go south for Christmas when I usually host up here. I politely declined and told my wife separately HELL no.

I’ve had plenty of snowless winters in the south and the CT river valley and now that we have a place in SLK you think I’m going to give this up for a 70° Christmas? Absolutely not.

Ha ha, You don't make that move to go to warmer weather, That is a great area for winter weather, And i'm contemplating moving further north when i retire.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We know, You already have started.

I never stopped.

[vortex95]

On 10/14/2026 at 5:10 PM, GaWx said:

 
 There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:


-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:


-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):


1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf

2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html



 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

Here's @GaWx big Oct 1982 storm.  This page from Storm Data I recall well back in the day and I was awed by the line "an almost hurricane-like eye off the coast of SC."

So what is fcst down the road is in-line w/ previous very strong El Ninos.  All this focus on how unusual or "unpredictable" the wx is for very strong El Nino (or wx in general), when in reality, the wx that happens within this type of El Nino is normal for it based on previous events!

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-5/IR/1982-10-24-21

[dendrite]

MAV is still cold in the rad pits Sunday morning.

That 14° at SLK would be close to a record

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, You don't make that move to go to warmer weather, That is a great area for winter weather, And i'm contemplating moving further north when i retire.

Funny enough, my wife hates snow, but she had a fantastic professional opportunity out of the blue. How could I say no? Especially when 2 of the prior 3 winters were sub 20” seasonal snowfalls in my part of CT. 

Life is short and youth is shorter. Take big swings. 

[vortex95]

On 10/14/2026 at 5:37 PM, WinterWolf said:

It was a good winter.  

A classic GIF from "Midlo" that fits this!
 

[vortex95]

On 10/15/2026 at 2:10 AM, ineedsnow said:

Instead of PD2 we could call it PS2 (Perfect Storm 2)!

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m all for anomalies now. I’ve seen pretty much everything mother nature has for winter. I could give two effs about 2-4” events unless there was 2’ of snow otg. Give me something that leaves me in awe. 

You should go live EFFINGham NH, at least you'd see a lot more SN.