Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[EasternLI]

AIFS-ENS sure seems to favor the idea of this thing having some impact...

 

[wthrmn654]

The trend for the eps is a tighter and tighter cluster each run it looks like..

[guinness77]

Heads up for you LIRR commuters…winds have already been a problem, two downed utility poles by Bethpage will mess up your commute on the Ronkonkoma branch into tomorrow morning. This has been going on since 1pm today. 

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flood watches and advisory have started

[wthrmn654]

High wind watch up for Rhode Island shoreline...

 

For what is worth 12k Nam is way west,  waiting for 3k to finish

[wthrmn654]

Nws is really down playing this heavily it would seem, it would appear they favor the gfs.. there even thinking nbm precip amounts are to high... interesting

 

Isn't there a saying when Upton isn't in, we get hit.

 

 

Kept with NBM POPS for the most part, but feel that they may be a

little too high during Friday through Saturday afternoon. Rain

chances begin Friday morning, and for mainly east of the city, rain

is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the the

city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50% through the

event, but go above it Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking

that rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance

for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to

minor. QPF forecast combined with FFG values wouldn`t support flash

flooding. If models trend west with the storm track, then western

zones could have a chance of minor flooding. As for winds,

anticipating gusts to remain below advisory thresholds, but it could

come close across eastern LI and SE CT late day Friday through

Saturday morning.

[wthrmn654]

Icon looks about same maybe a little west

Rgem looks better even. 

Nams are west. 

[Snowlover11]

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

[MJO812]

Icon is a soaker 

[TriPol]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Icon looks about same maybe a little west

Rgem looks better even. 

Nams are west. 

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

This is going to be a FUN winter.

[wthrmn654]

Just now, TriPol said:

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO 

If the gfs comes west,  Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

If the gfs comes west,  Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

same thing every noreaster-GFS flat out to sea then comes on board at the end

[wthrmn654]

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes?  Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image  shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. 

 

But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes?  Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image  shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. 

 

But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

Upton had balls last winter. Maybe they misplaced them when El Nino came. They should find them again because I have faith the 18z GFS is going to cause them to hoist Gale Watches.

[wthrmn654]

Was just talking to nws met, sounds like there talking a cautious approach.

Watches from past experience,imo, we're always issued area wide at the same time roughly.. to see them doing things, more randomly?  Versus watches for coastal flooding all areas that would likely see it is deft unusual especially with such a spread in models would seem more prudent to be safer then sorry? 

 

End rant

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes?  Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image  shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. 

 

But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

OKX has 24hr to issue an advisory for twin forks if need be.  Let's hope by tomorrow morning the models all agree on the track & they'll move on advisories for out east if needed.

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Upton had balls last winter. Maybe they misplaced them when El Nino came. They should find them again because I have faith the 18z GFS is going to cause them to hoist Gale Watches.

Gale watches are already up lol

[wthrmn654]

Waiting for gfs to hurry up and run is giving me grey hairs

[wthrmn654]

Early views says it's a bit west? 

[wthrmn654]

Gfs is indeed more west but precip wise unkown waiting for it to load. 

[TriPol]

GFS is west at hr 60

[wthrmn654]

Hours 66 to 72 it doesn't move... down to 993 mb

[Neblizzard]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

GFS is west at hr 60

Looks to hit eastern New England 

[wthrmn654]

Then it moves east i guess next slide lol idk

[MJO812]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Looks to hit eastern New England 

Yes still an outlier 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Hours 66 to 72 it doesn't move... down to 993 mb

This is enough of a shift west that I think either 0z or 12z will bow to the EURO. I'm not saying this thing gives us memories of Sandy and goes into NJ, but I think maybe Eastern Long Island will get the brunt of it. Will it retrograde? That depends on the placement of the high pressure up north and how strong it is.

[wthrmn654]

Precip is very much west this run out to this and it appears to not be done. 

[wthrmn654]

The last slide is also stronger then the last 2 model runs.

[wthrmn654]

At hour 96 it moves west again towards the cape!