Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 hours ago, kdxken said:

79/64 here. It's actually pretty nice.

Dews dropped towards dusk and overnight
Pleasant out now, low 60s with dews in low 60s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will it rain again this month?

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it rain again this month?

Hope not

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it rain again this month?

Likely get some shredded mess of an old tropical system.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lots of smoke this week. Wonder if it will affect temps at all like last time 

[dendrite]

Min 59.5°

Deep summer may be on its last legs…especially NNE. 

[weatherwiz]

Was reading up about downtown Springfield/Forest Park area...pretty crazy. Forest Park closed until further notice due to storm damage. Was just at the Forest Park Zoo last weekend for Bew at the Zoo. When I parked at the T station, saw the watch was out, and those storms in east-central NY, I knew Springfield would get crushed. Don't think it was bad on my end though...a good 10-15 minutes northeast of that area. 

[weatherwiz]

On 8/7/2026 at 11:30 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Bullshit its very very true. Hair sticks up and gives you a tingling feeling, you become a negative 

 

On 8/8/2026 at 9:04 AM, FXWX said:

Very well documented for decades... 

Wanted to respond to this earlier since it's pretty important lightning safety but it is 100% true. People can be a great source as a connecting leader between the ground and the forming stepped leader with positive charges flowing up the connecting leader (which can be people) and when the stepped leader establishes a connection with a connecting leader...lightning! In fact, because of this the "flash" actually travels from the ground to the cloud but the whole process is so quick we see it was going from the ground to the cloud.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Min 59.5°

Deep summer may be on its last legs…especially NNE. 

Seeing subtle signs of a 'back stressed' summer synopsis.  Not personally ready to go 'breaking', per se. I mean solar max ends only just today. These things take time.  In fact, we had cooler last month in July for a stretch. 

However, in the general super synoptic aspect/layout the summer polar branch of the westerlies appears to be sinking S of 50 N (~) latitude. This was not the case in July.  July's cool down(s) was a pretty glaring example of cheating, a leitmotif this summer up here in the NE.  This summer appeared to single out our region for repeating heat offsets - yes ...this, despite being above normal. It could have been much worse.  I feel we can't go by that metric so much though, now that everything in every direction seems to sniff like Gretta-taint at this point and probably forever more... We have to judge these through a relativistic lens.

Having said that,  heights are also still lingering around 582 DM, a summer value by convention.  Still the subtle sign is both the jet coming S a bit, but also that the next heat expansion appears situating farther S across the CONUS .. ~ 120 thru 180 or so hours. This exposes our region to more fast mid level over top flow and probably ablates heat.  Also in lieu of cloud and convection traffic.  Heh, like trying to set up a lemonade stand on an Interstate.   Beyond that into the deeper range, general climo starts to weigh -

 

[ineedsnow]

about to leave for the Southwick's zoo.. seems like a great day for it 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Min 59.5°

Deep summer may be on its last legs…especially NNE. 

We probably step off the summer plateau on Wednesday.  After 42 days (July 1 thru tomorrow) with our mean between 65 and 66, August 12 is likely to be 64.xy, as the long slide begins.

(The equivalent winter bottom is much shorter - the period within 1° F of the current coldest, 13.55°, is only 12 days, January 18-29.) 

[Snowedin]

Solar max or solar freeze your ass off minimum..this is still a great time to get out and keep that glorious nape going strong or perhaps get it going for the first time if you’re one of those unfortunate chilly loving punks!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Weeks and weeks of boredom before we enter six months of November.

[Layman]

On 8/9/2026 at 8:55 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I was thinking about the exact precision I have missed storms this summer. Every direction , every surrounding town really. Union area up to Sturbridge multiple times, S and SE of here . Ginx to Se CT. Hartford got crushed Friday night, BDL all summer , all of western and SW CT and Springfield last night. And now Stein drops the Roman helmet to suffocate 

Sounds like some sort of Mortal Kombat finishing move I'm unfamiliar with...

[Damage In Tolland]

53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

about to leave for the Southwick's zoo.. seems like a great day for it 

Hot and humid for you and the animals!

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope, not with a wind off the harbor and dews lower. Pretty much nude.

Epic sunset.

@CoastalWx gets more impressed w/ a sunset now?  My how have the standards have fallen!  No problem ragging on convection though!   He likes pleasant and quiet wx it seems now!

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Wanted to respond to this earlier since it's pretty important lightning safety but it is 100% true. People can be a great source as a connecting leader between the ground and the forming stepped leader with positive charges flowing up the connecting leader (which can be people) and when the stepped leader establishes a connection with a connecting leader...lightning! In fact, because of this the "flash" actually travels from the ground to the cloud but the whole process is so quick we see it was going from the ground to the cloud.

And yet how many times do you see ppl come out to walk the dog, jogging, or just causally strolling from the pool from their apartment complex when CGs are near and the thunder is wicked loud?  I know this sounds callous, but they are just asking for it. You'd think thunder that loud would galvanize ppl.  A mere flash I get not doing it, but the sound wave decibel level alone, you''d think that would do it!   Any sudden loud noise typically will make anyone jump.  And I am not talking about the typical thunder rumbles/crashes, you know what I mean -- the ones you are never quite ready for even when you know it's coming! 

Yes, the odds you yourself would get hit are extremely low, but when you give LTG millions of targets daily, that odds become 100% some will be hit.
 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

@CoastalWx gets more impressed w/ a sunset now?  My how have the standards have fallen!  No problem ragging on convection though!   He likes pleasant and quiet wx it seems now!

Convection means quiet weather now lol. All I have are memories.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And yet how many times do you see ppl come out to walk the dog, jogging, or just causally strolling from the pool from their apartment complex when CGs are near and the thunder is wicked loud?  I know this sounds callous, but they are just asking for it. You'd think thunder that loud would galvanize ppl.  A mere flash I get not doing it, but the sound wave decibel level alone, you''d think that would do it!   Any sudden loud noise typically will make anyone jump.  And I am not talking about the typical thunder rumbles/crashes, you know what I mean -- the ones you are never quite ready for even when you know it's coming! 

Yes, the odds you yourself would get hit are extremely low, but when you give LTG millions of targets daily, that odds become 100% some will be hit.
 

It's interesting for sure. I think alot of it comes down to the mindset many people have of, "it won't happen to me". At least when it comes to lightning, I don't think people truly respect how deadly it can be. Same goes with flooding, most people don't realize how powerful moving water is. It's hard to totally fault people this because the education on this is lacking but it's definitely become better over the years with the awareness provided by local TV mets, NWS, etc. But there needs to be another element to this. It's probably something that should be incorporated into sciences courses beginning at the middle school level - I'm sure it probably is in some districts but how in-depth, not sure. 

At least for myself, I am extremely cautious when I am outside when there is an approaching storm. Even if the storm is a good 15-20 miles away. If I am outside with the camera I am right next to the car door with the door open or if I'm at home I'm very close to the door. I'm pretty mindful of the objects around me and what they are. But all of this of course comes with my knowledge of thunderstorms and lightning. So I am thinking of things that most people don't even realize.

[vortex95]

No talk of tstm potential today?  HRRR shows discrete supercells in VT early this evening.  0-6 km shear 45-50 kt kt, so there you go.  Small looped hodographs as well. Surprised SPC does not have MRGL across NNE.  It's a decent s/w trof, so no reason why there not should be some svr.  CAPE maxes only around 1500, but that's misleading.  When the deep layer shear is good, that make a big difference, and you don't need honkin' CAPE values for sold storms.

Then a SQLN evolves that sweeps through NH/ME, and then some last min cells psbl for 1-3am far ern MA.

I think @CoastalWx's sullied attitude towards convection is a factor here! 
 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

about to leave for the Southwick's zoo.. seems like a great day for it 

Don't waste your money on the train ride. There's never any elk.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Don't waste your money on the train ride. There's never any elk.

We do it all  we try to come here once a year and the kids love it.. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Convection means quiet weather now lol. All I have are memories.  

Usually, we are good WOR for at least a few decent bangers in the summer. This has been one of the quietest summers I can’t remember except for the silent light show a few weeks ago.

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's interesting for sure. I think alot of it comes down to the mindset many people have of, "it won't happen to me". At least when it comes to lightning, I don't think people truly respect how deadly it can be. Same goes with flooding, most people don't realize how powerful moving water is. It's hard to totally fault people this because the education on this is lacking but it's definitely become better over the years with the awareness provided by local TV mets, NWS, etc. But there needs to be another element to this. It's probably something that should be incorporated into sciences courses beginning at the middle school level - I'm sure it probably is in some districts but how in-depth, not sure. 

At least for myself, I am extremely cautious when I am outside when there is an approaching storm. Even if the storm is a good 15-20 miles away. If I am outside with the camera I am right next to the car door with the door open or if I'm at home I'm very close to the door. I'm pretty mindful of the objects around me and what they are. But all of this of course comes with my knowledge of thunderstorms and lightning. So I am thinking of things that most people don't even realize.

Wx as a hazard is driven into the population relentlessly now, has been that way for decades. It is over-the-top w/ hype and fear-mongering, which is an issue in itself, but the very fact wx is front and center always time now, and still ppl "don't know" or "cry foul"?  I find that largely an outdated excuse.

Forecasts have improved greatly over that last 30 yr alone, and IMHO they are not the "problem" anymore.  It's human nature, which is not going to change.  Some ppl simply don't care, some resist anything from authority, some think "it won't happen to me" as noted by @weatherwiz, some get the proper information, but don't prepare or take enough action.  There are countless reasons why ppl still lose their lives and are injured, and a large part of that these days has nothing to do w/ the severity/intensity of a given wx event.

Improved forecasts and communications have reduced the tolls over time a lot (look at the reduced tolls in the U.S alone since 1900), but we have plateaued here IMHO.  We are now "fighting" 3 things.

1) There are just more of us all the time, so more "targets" for wx.

2) The social science part w/ communication, attitudes, and probably the biggest thing now, *wx warning apathy* b/c ppl are sick of constantly in alert/warning status and endless hype.

TPTB think too often "well just let's just warn more, and that will ‘fix’ it".  As I have said many times, more is not always better, there comes a point of diminishing returns.  Quality over quality is the main issue.  When *not* to issue warnings/alerts I would argue now is just as important as when it is needed!

3) More and more, I find plain incompetence of those in change resulting in tragedy, like the Hill County TX flash flood last year.  Have you read the report on that?  Warnings were received, and some at the camps did not heed or take seriously.  And this is particularly egregious for a fail b/c that area of TX is the most flash flood prone area in NAMR!  You'd think as someone who is in charge there or runs things would know that and realize the risk is much higher than other areas, and NOT mess around when warnings are put out.

We like to use the "wx/climate is getting worse" as a scapegoat for all the bad that happens, but there are many others factors present here, but heaven forbid ppl take responsibility for their actions (inactions) or admit they screwed up.  Pass the blame to someone/something else.  You can't fix problems/issues if you can't address, define, or source them correctly!
 

[weatherwiz]

28 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

No talk of tstm potential today?  HRRR shows discrete supercells in VT early this evening.  0-6 km shear 45-50 kt kt, so there you go.  Small looped hodographs as well. Surprised SPC does not have MRGL across NNE.  It's a decent s/w trof, so no reason why there not should be some svr.  CAPE maxes only around 1500, but that's misleading.  When the deep layer shear is good, that make a big difference, and you don't need honkin' CAPE values for sold storms.

Then a SQLN evolves that sweeps through NH/ME, and then some last min cells psbl for 1-3am far ern MA.

I think @CoastalWx's sullied attitude towards convection is a factor here! 
 

Lower dews may be a bit of a killer today but we certainly could see a few strong storms around