Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[JACKASS]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

They grab a lot of fawns around my place. Truthfully there's too many deer.

Not an issue here, thankfully!

[JACKASS]

Thanks guys!

[Snowedin]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

87/67 today

Summer as it should be. You can def feel the change in the air as the sun begins to set. Let the dew wars commence!

[SJonesWX]

neighbor has chickens. They have probably had 50 of them killed by raccoons, bear, fox, and coyote. the guy is a cop, and NH fish and game was not pleased when he shot and killed a bear that was attacking his coop. my house is like 300 yards away, and I have seen 1 bear (but plenty of bobcats and coyotes) in the time I’ve lived here.

[JACKASS]

4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

neighbor has chickens. They have probably had 50 of them killed by raccoons, bear, fox, and coyote. the guy is a cop, and NH fish and game was not pleased when he shot and killed a bear that was attacking his coop. my house is like 300 yards away, and I have seen 1 bear (but plenty of bobcats and coyotes) in the time I’ve lived here.

As I said, bear are protected.

”Not pleased” is an understatement!

[JACKASS]

Sorry to take away from the conversation of extreme weather we’re about to endure, for guidance on Mother Nature’s other challenges.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

neighbor has chickens. They have probably had 50 of them killed by raccoons, bear, fox, and coyote. the guy is a cop, and NH fish and game was not pleased when he shot and killed a bear that was attacking his coop. my house is like 300 yards away, and I have seen 1 bear (but plenty of bobcats and coyotes) in the time I’ve lived here.

Yeah that’s the only problems bear really get into… they’ll take out a whole coop or flock.  I’m not sure I’ve heard of bear attacking chickens just free roaming… but that thing will get inside a coop and go nuts.

First time ever my folks had a big bear in the woods behind the camp in Woodstock, CT.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s the only problems bear really get into… they’ll take out a whole coop or flock.  I’m not sure I’ve heard of bear attacking chickens just free roaming… but that thing will get inside a coop and go nuts.

First time ever my folks had a big bear in the woods behind the camp in Woodstock, CT.

Still no thanks on bears although they are cool. Ran into a huge grizzly in the Tetons some years back. Wasn't aggressive but just the size of it.  It was doing exactly as you said, eating berries. It was actually crushing Berry trees by rolling.

[kdxken]

I'll stick with local animals. A few from over the years.

[powderfreak]

Just now, kdxken said:

Still no thanks on bears although they are cool. Ran into a huge grizzly in the Tetons some years back. Wasn't aggressive but just the size of it.  It was doing exactly as you said, eating berries. It was actually crushing Berry trees by rolling.

Yeah hard pass on grizzlies .  No thanks.

I cannot imagine how much different life would be here if black bears were aggressive and predators.  Everyone would have to be armed, ha.

 

[kdxken]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah hard pass on grizzlies .  No thanks.

I cannot imagine how much different life would be here if black bears were aggressive and predators.  Everyone would have to be armed, ha.

 

Said bear. Didn't want to get too close.

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'll stick with local animals. A few from over the years.

Amazing shots!

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

Are we sure that’s snow? 

Proxy!

Snowfall seasons for the E Coast in very strong El Nino are hit or miss.  No very strong El Nino has resulted in a blockbuster snow winter so far, at least for New England!

One thing about very strong El Ninos, some fcsts for what happens in parts of the world have a high confidence.  The 4 very strong El Ninos we have had since the 1950s, all have had suppressed ATLC hurr season and a mild CONUS winter.  Active STJ and a wet srn tier also works.  And everyone always thinks CA gets crushed w/ big rains and snows and the Pac NW is dry,  However, in the 2015-16 event,  CA underperformed big tine (prompting "endless drought" stupid hype) and the Pac NW was wet.

Moral here?  We have a limited dataset for very strong El Ninos, at least in the era where we can determine SSTs in the remote areas of the equatorial Pacific where it matters most, and given what happened in 2015-16, that suggests we have *not* seen the full range of what very strong El Ninos can do for sensible wx impacts around the globe simply b/c sample size is small.

So if this El Nino ends up being the strongest on record, we may see some unexpected sensible wx emerge for parts of the globe, and given the non-linear nature of the Earth's system, it does not mean everything will be "worse" across the board.  Higher temp anomalies end up impacting positive and negative feedbacks in various degrees and what ends up happening can be unexpected.

Also, there are no less than a dozen other oscillations going on across the globe outside of ENSO, and we certainty have not seen every combo possible of then when very strong El Nino is occurring, so this can explain deviations.  Yes, ENSO is among the strongest oscillations out there, but it does not occur in a vacuum!

So maybe we will, esp. @CoastalWx, will be pleasantly surprised w/ frequent "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" snow vistas this coming winter!  LOL.

That being said, so far the ATLC hurr season is suppressed big time from the hostile upper-level conditions and the WPAC is much above avg (213% of Y-T-D ACE as of today), so that is working out as expected!