Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure what the brown shading implies but I'm sure a tornado watch would be most likely. Kind of shocked though only 60% chance of issuance...but that is covering any potential for stuff to pop later afternoon. I think the real concern is more evening and early overnight so may be too early for a watch on that stuff. So we may see a watch soon and then more later 

The watch now would not be for the big stuff later I think.  Marginal svr is psbl this aftn in cntrl/nrn ME.  The tor box would be later for far nrn VT/NH, and NW ME.

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

@CoastalWx post earlier about watching southwest of where SPC has is looking good. Hourly runs of the HRRR are beginning to get a bit more aggressive with activity back across upstate NY, northern VT, and norther NH. Stuff may even get closer to central VT/NH. May see a southward expansion of the enhanced at 20z

WxWiz will do his best to apply "english" to the risk areas to nudge them closer to CT!  

[Cyclone-68]

The NWS removed the 30% for thunderstorms late tonight or tomorrow locally so that kinda sucks 

[OceanStWx]

41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Storms dying as they approach the border. 

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

HRRR tries to bring New Hampshire into the game overnight. 

[tamarack]

23 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

For reference, the biggest hail in New England is 4"  in SW ME on 6/1/1986.  Here is the Storm Data entry.
 

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view.  The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007.  Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad.  Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice.  Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen.  Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted.  Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

[OceanStWx]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. 

Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

HRRR tries to bring New Hampshire into the game overnight. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we get severe elevated hail overnight given those morning soundings to our west. Plenty of support for that.

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That event caused near-total defoliation of the trees along Rt 302 in Naples, and probably elsewhere that I didn't view.  The only other significant defoliating storm was 5-10 miles SE from home, in Rome and New Sharon, on August 30, 2007.  Next morning I found 1-2 miles on Rt 27 on the Rome end of Mile Hill as a 2-track thru 6" of leaf salad.  Folks there reported up to 4" deep hail in places away from where water flow gathered the ice.  Perhaps 2,000 acres were stripped and when the Maine Forest Service forester examined things there, she found considerable debarking, especially in Aspen.  Some stripped hemlock did, pines refoliated in the spring, and ash became like bottle-brushes as scores of lateral buds sprouted.  Some 2" chunks were reported but along Rt 27 I found only dimes/nickels/few quarters (at 5 PM 24 hours after the storm).

Wow, great reports!  "Leaf salad," LOL.  It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. 

Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

Having the Doppler radars now in Canada really helps for NNE radar coverage, esp. since CXX is practically useless ern semicircle.   It still amazes me that the NWS was not allowed to put the CXX radar on a mountain top when it was installed in the late 90s.  This action thumbs its nose at protection of lives and property, and should override anything else in this case.

Was that due to VT State Regulations about towers on mountain tops?  It wasn't always that way, right?  Mt Mansfield has communication towers.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Wow, great reports!  "Leaf salad," LOL.  It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

All the hail that has fallen on our yard in 28 years (going on 29) would fit in a 2-pound coffee can.  I was sad to have missed the 2007 storm, but happy that I still had a garden.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Having the Doppler radars now in Canada really helps for NNE radar coverage, esp. since CXX is practically useless ern semicircle.   It still amazes me that the NWS was not allowed to put the CXX radar on a mountain top when it was installed in the late 90s.  This action thumbs its nose at protection of lives and property, and should override anything else in this case.

Was that due to VT State Regulations about towers on mountain tops?  It wasn't always that way, right?  Mt Mansfield has communication towers.

Well before my time, so I don't know.

But Canadians have dual-pol as well, so TDSs are possible to observe. I'm pretty sure I've seen a couple outside my forecast area.

[weatherwiz]

18z NAM gone wild in upstate NY. That hodographs is nuts. About as perfect of winds turning with height as you'll see lol...maybe would want just a tad more southerly component to sfc wind. But over 4000 J of MLCAPE in this kinematic environment  

[yoda]

Sounds like the 2000 SPC OTLK is saying the smoke is an issue

[WxWatcher007]

It’s far from chase country but I can’t believe I’m not up there today. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sounds like the 2000 SPC OTLK is saying the smoke is an issue

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   MONTANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
   hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of
   northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
   severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions
   of Montana.

   ...20z Update...
   The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
   adjustments required. Convection across southeast Quebec has
   struggled to maintained intensity as it approaches the U.S. border
   through mid-afternoon with abundant cirrus, smoke, and cloud debris
   overspreading central to northern ME. Recent surface observations
   show temperatures remaining in the mid/upper 70s, which is
   supporting very limited MLCAPE per the 18 UTC CAR RAOB. This casts
   considerable uncertainty on the degree of destabilization that will
   occur through the early evening hours. Latest CAM guidance appears
   to be capturing this trend and depicts low probabilities for intense
   UH and/or strong wind swaths across northern ME. 30%/Enhanced
   contours were trimmed southward to account for this decreased
   confidence. 

   Further southwest, warmer temperatures in the 80s are supporting a
   more volatile atmosphere with MLCAPE values estimated to be around
   2000 J/kg. Strong shear remains across the region per VWP
   observations, and CAM guidance continues to depict some potential
   for intense convection traversing northern NY, VT, NH and western ME
   later this evening as the primary surface trough migrates east. Risk
   probabilities have been shifted southwest to better align with the
   better thermodynamic environment and convective signal. However, the
   recent convective trends upstream and modulating influence of
   wildfire smoke on boundary-layer mixing/CIN reduction casts
   uncertainty on how widespread the severe threat may be. 

 

[weatherwiz]

This is probably going to be the area of focus. Mesoanalysis (using the RAP) erodes SBCIN and MLCAPE in this region over the next 2-4 hours

[ineedsnow]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM gone wild in upstate NY. That hodographs is nuts. About as perfect of winds turning with height as you'll see lol...maybe would want just a tad more southerly component to sfc wind. But over 4000 J of MLCAPE in this kinematic environment  

If only we had everything come together here lol 

[Chrisrotary12]

Yawn. 

[dendrite]

Wonder if the smoke will increase CG frequency and intensity. Let’s get a yore light show. 

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wonder if the smoke will increase CG frequency and intensity. Let’s get a yore light show. 

Due to more particles suspended aloft? 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Due to more particles suspended aloft? 

Yeah…there’s been some studies on it.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277376102_Enhanced_Positive_Cloud-to-Ground_Lightning_in_Thunderstorms_Ingesting_Smoke_from_Fires

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wonder if the smoke will increase CG frequency and intensity. Let’s get a yore light show. 

“The lightning did most brightly rend the heavens that night.”

[CT Valley Snowman]

Seems like wagons SW as far as NW Maine is concerned.  

[CoastalWx]

If stuff were to get nasty, will need stuff to really fire in Canada from 6-8p. Maybe keep an eye on that stuff near Mont-Laurier.

[SJonesWX]

just took down the backyard canopy just in case. pretty much guaranteed that nothing will happen here, not that I was expecting anything but you never know. Those outdoor canopies like to become airborn in the slightest breeze