Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4” in Boston on the 18z NAM and about 2 tenths on the 00z through 20 hours 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM also .

 

some knew 

NAM radar sim is comically wrong, however

[SouthCoastMA]

HRRR looked reasonable. A general .5-1.5"

[CoastalWx]

Should be a good rain to soak in later tonight and tomorrow. I came home to El Paso. Ground is hard as a rock. Windy here tomorrow too.

[Great Snow 1717]

So far this has been the perfect" pre season game" for the methuen area...not a drop of rain has fallen while areas to the south have been "buried"....

#TOTALWASTELAND

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Radar looks worse than the US team tonight. And that’s hard to do 

This is what we are.  A very good but not top level team.  Can't make mistakes like they did tonight and expect to beat a top 10 team. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Have to wonder if that heavy rain near the islands makes it this far north before it gets blasted east. 

[Torch Tiger]

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

So far this has been the perfect" pre season game" for the methuen area...not a drop of rain has fallen while areas to the south have been "buried"....

#TOTALWASTELAND

 

2-3ft here….not even a dusting in Methuen. Good thing it’s not 5-6 months from now. 

[dendrite]

Damn 5.47” for Shabbs

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

NCEP initializing the HRRR and NAM with tequila now so we won’t miss them when they’re gone. 

This is one of the worst short-range busts for rainfall I have seen.  You go back a few days, and all global models has solid 1-3" at least up to the MA Pike and 3-6" widespread S of that!  And then the difference between the 06/06z and 12z HRRR.  Oooo, the HRRR brings it back N  big time and the 3/12km NAM stay the course from 06z  And now?  W-T-...?  KBED not even a drop yet.  Virga storm!

I know the event is not over yet, but too little too late it seems.  Only swrn/srn CT verified well. 

Good thing this isn't winter, otherwise we'd have to drag this classic GIF out!!  CoastalWx should post the same GIF but w/ the faces of ppl on the forum included (does he still have that GIF saved?).
 

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

0.0” so far 

 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think I had any rain this month until an hour ago.

"Diamond dust" rain???

[codfishsnowman]

 

Cef not even .25 and bdl .85

I think .4 around here?

Thank God it's not snow lol

[vortex95]

Well, I should have checked through *all* latest models.  The 00z RRFS does this, and the 00z ECMWF this.  So partially salvage it?

The sfc low is just off the S NJ coast now, and has yet to start to wrap up, and it passes about 80 mi SE of ACK.  The solid ENE sfc gradient (for July) is still coming, so I guess what the RRFS and ECMWF are showing could happen? 
 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

up to about 4 here.   Still going but much lighter

Nice, your area jackpotted I think. Only around an inch here if I had to guess.

[codfishsnowman]

Well at least here it's been the light kind that they say is great for the lawns

[vortex95]

[w1pf]

0.4 in Holyoke over the last 28 hours. 

I was hoping for at least a quick downpour to test out some drainage work I've done over the past week, but no luck.. peak rain rate so far about 0.18/hr, and that for about two minutes..

Will at least green up the grass a bit..

[CoastalWx]

A steining to remember so far. Hopefully filling in.

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A steining to remember so far. Hopefully filling in.

1.95 .over 4 now for July 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like a bit over 1" now at home. Nothing too heavy, just a nice soaking rainfall to help alleviate the dry conditions.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1.95 .over 4 now for July 

.14 for the month

[CoastalWx]

Goes back to what I always say in the summer. When advection and baroclinic processes are weak, only way to get heavy rains is closer to warm front and low track. There is where you have the forcing to combine with instability. Otherwise it’s a fail.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

.14 for the month

Jesus probably pick up some today. Other than a couple of muggy days mixed in looks like perfect COC weather most of July 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus probably pick up some today. Other than a couple of muggy days mixed in looks like perfect COC weather most of July 

You got 2” on the 4th? 

[CoastalWx]

Lawns are brown as the Merrimack in Haverhill.

[vortex95]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Goes back to what I always say in the summer. When advection and baroclinic processes are weak, only way to get heavy rains is closer to warm front and low track. There is where you have the forcing to combine with instability. Otherwise it’s a fail.

Yah but the 00z ECMWF shows Weymouth still getting 4"!!!  LOL.

[kdxken]

About  5" less then the HRRR was giving me.

[kdxken]

Stein blaming the bust on lack of weather balloons.