Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Cyclone-68]

One way or another I’m going to witness a hurricane in person. Once I retire I’m definitely taking a quick trip to FL or the Carolina’s. But shhhh! Don’t tell my wife because she doesn’t know this yet!

[OrangeCTWX]

Too early for blue thickness up in Canada lol 

[weatherwiz]

Thundering here!!!! 

[weatherwiz]

Not a bad looking core. Surprised at least no SPS on it

[Damage In Tolland]

Moving due south down the valley. What a year for the CTRV. Rare 

[CT Valley Snowman]

We pour.  Everything lush and green.  

[dendrite]

Rich get richer. Poor get poorer.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Moving due south down the valley. What a year for the CTRV. Rare 

Picked up another .25” in Greenfield. 

[codfishsnowman]

I want that much qpf in snow in relatively the same amount of time during the winter just like this was 

 

 

That was wild!! I guess that's what sw CT has had all summer

[WxWatcher007]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Far too much focus on SSTs -- column TPW (and by extension instability) and shear is what it is all about.  All the anomalously high SST/OHC is meaningless if the atmosphere does not cooperate.  Something that seems to elude many --  "but the ocean is SO hot!!!"  TCs are more tenuous that the MSM thinks.  A lot has to line up for one to form, and even more for one to get intense.

SSTs are more than warm enough around the globe in much of the tropics and subtropics year-round to support strong TCs, and how many named storms form each year and how many get intense?  And formation is confined to distinct parts of the year in each basin, again showing how what goes on in the atmosphere dictates things.

Of all the 3 primary factors, SSTs are least important.  You can get hurricanes up to Cat 2 status w/ SSTs below the 26 C threshold, and min hurricanes as low as 20 C as long as the TPW and shear are favorable.  But if the wind shear is high and/or the column is dry, you get nothing to even develop in the first place, despite torch SSTs!

You don't need to do research or run a model to see this, Empirical observations alone over time clearly show this.  That's an sig problem these days, some are so caught up in "what the models say" they forget to look at what actually happens in the real world, currently and in the past.  Empirical. real-world observations override what models say every time.  Basic common sense and logic!

We agree. Though anomalous OHC ups the ante if the atmosphere is willing to cooperate. The stability in the tropical Atlantic has been a common feature this decade, and deserves a lot more attention.

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Garbage model 

It was horrendous last season after making real strides in previous years. AI ensembles quickly proving their worth in identifying windows for TC genesis and surpassing the GFS. 

[codfishsnowman]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Picked up another .25” in Greenfield. 

Didn't see anything about that in the p and c

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rich get richer. Poor get poorer.

 

Yes.

[dendrite]

Looks about right 

[w1pf]

Got my gutters all emptied out this morning, let them dry for patching later today

Took the wife to urgent care up in Noho, come home to 0.35" in the bucket. 

Looks like more coming down the valley. 

maybe I'll try again tomorrow 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Jeezuz, storms just keep popping up north of Brattleboro and sliding right down the valley. Pouring again. 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s unreal how I’m getting skipped over. Unreal. 

[Brian5671]

happy to be skipped here

[CoastalWx]

Keep Friday's sunny. We tan.

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s unreal how I’m getting skipped over. Unreal. 

[CoastalWx]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We agree. Though anomalous OHC ups the ante if the atmosphere is willing to cooperate. The stability in the tropical Atlantic has been a common feature this decade, and deserves a lot more attention.

It was horrendous last season after making real strides in previous years. AI ensembles quickly proving their worth in identifying windows for TC genesis and surpassing the GFS. 

I don't disagree there could be something weak, but GFS looks wild.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't disagree there could be something weak, but GFS looks wild.

Very hard to buy the GFS when ensembles across the board go the opposite direction.

[dendrite]

81.4°, sunny, and very safe to close the month

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Very gentle shower earlier dropped .10 of bore 

[klw]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Rich get richer. Poor get poorer.

 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, klw said:

Just got 5 drops

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just got 5 drops

and the chickens rejoiced!