Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There won't be a cane. 

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it.

Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD. 

[weatherwiz]

48 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

IDK some models have hints of it besides the GFS..  would be OTS anyways but I'm going on a 3 hour fishing trip out of Seabrook NH next Saturday so would be rough 

Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week.

You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly. 

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Something will pop in the subtropics eventually, but this ain’t it.

Today was actually the first day I started thinking about my annual peak season forecast. It’ll be a dead basin this season, but how dead is TBD. 

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts. 

[CoastalWx]

I can’t say I looked extensively, but I know the buoy south of Block Island was like 69° a couple days ago. Over recent summer those waters have been warmer.

 

Edit: now 65°

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you were a boy scout you know the largest boy scout camp in New England is in Yawgoog. 

Is that where the ski area is too?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can’t say I looked extensively, but I know the buoy south of Block Island was like 69° a couple days ago. Over recent summer those waters have been warmer.

 

Edit: now 65°

Decent cold patch off the coast that's developed in the last few weeks...

[HimoorWx]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Is that where the ski area is too?

Yawgoo Valley, last ski area in Rhode Island! Don't know if it is still open. You drove down the hill past the slopes to get to the base. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Yawgoo Valley, last ski area in Rhode Island! Don't know if it is still open. You drove down the hill past the slopes to get to the base. 

Yep.  Still operating.   Their season passes are incredibly expensive.  lol 

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Yawgoo Valley, last ski area in Rhode Island! Don't know if it is still open. You drove down the hill past the slopes to get to the base. 

Pretty cool!  Never heard of it but looks like they're still around:  https://yawgoo.com/ 

[CoastalWx]

I remember seeing that place on the ski reports back in the day. What a name lol.

[HimoorWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yep.  Still operating.   Their season passes are incredibly expensive.  lol 

Used to do some night skiing back in the 70s when I was at URI. 

[kdxken]

Everyone had enough of the rain? I know I have. Unfortunately it looks like more in the coming weeks 

 

 

[dendrite]

Time for a GYX only subforum

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Time for a GYX only subforum

Fortunately, you’ll have that this winter when you’re the only one getting frozen.

[dendrite]

Idk what these radar echoes are even doing anymore. There’s literally echoes moving away from Winni while some just to the west are going in the opposite direction. In the end the vector is away from the coop and lake. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1.34…. Today was a dud 

[Lava Rock]

43 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Everyone had enough of the rain? I know I have. Unfortunately it looks like more in the coming weeks 

 

 

kick that to the curb, at least here. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts. 

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well off the East Coast or north of the Antilles seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It might be climo, but even in our worst years there are still windows that open up. The problem this season is that you have numerous hurdles that are much higher than normal due to our strengthening Nino. 

Not only are MDR SSTa numbers pretty cool, but there's not the same level of OHC that you'd normally expect heading into the climatological peak, even in the Caribbean. 

That SSTa look above also raises an issue that has been wrecking the MDR throughout the 2020s, subsidence and stability. That warmth in the subtropics screams stability issues.

Even in recent hot years, it's taken a lot of effort in the peak season to offset repeated dry air and stability issues in the tropical Atlantic. Alarm bells are already going off with instability well below normal again in the MDR. 

Dust so far has been near average, so seeing this lack of stability above even with relatively normal dust conditions is a red flag. 

Then you have shear, which we all know is worse across much of the basin in a Nino year. Well, the graveyard is extra barren right now with an ugly shear look. The images below come from Michael Lowry, who does some awesome tropical work. 

Shear should drop as we move into better climo, but if we see persistent TUTTs across the basin it's going to be hard to get much activity going, let alone anything high end. So, it's going to be hard. Waves that survive being suffocated by stability may very well get decapitated by shear as they try to get into the Caribbean. Homebrew, especially in the subtropics region well of the East Coast seems to be the only way we have decent development this season, which fits strong Nino years. 

 

Great stuff,

are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots 

[WxWatcher007]

This site has some great stuff I use all the time: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/basins.html?basin=al-24

The year over year shear is something Lowry does. Wish I knew how. His data visualization stuff is great. 

A lot of good stuff here too: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/products.html

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This site has some great stuff I use all the time: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/basins.html?basin=al-24

The year over year shear is something Lowry does. Wish I knew how. His data visualization stuff is great. 

A lot of good stuff here too: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/products.html

The data has to come from somewhere. Find the source and let Claude do the rest.