Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Great Snow 1717]

12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Having spent 9yrs in S FL I have a new appreciation for preparedness. Most folks (not all) had some sort of season storm kit with food and other supplies. All it’s going to take here is a strong Cat 1 or 2 and people will be out of power for a couple of weeks losing their shite on the power companies. We have have had significant tree growth since Gloria and Bob and many have not idea what widespread tree damage will look like. 

Falls under the heading of people being careful what they wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. 

Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me.

All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....

 

[ineedsnow]

lots of clouds with convection rolling through the central part of the state

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When it happens ( and it will) and hopefully in my lifetime)…it is going to be a month or more in some places . If you throw a 1938.. or even a Connie or Diane or even a high end 1/ low end cat 2.. the damage will be catastrophic 

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months.  Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ.  Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

[Modfan2]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Falls under the heading of people being careful what the wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. 

Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me.

All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....

 

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

I know several families who moved back to New England after experiencing a hurricane while living in Florida..

People in New England are ill prepared for a direct hit from a strong hurricane. They talk tough but that toughness would vanish once they realize that an Oct snowstorm is a flurry when compared to a direct hit from a major hurricane

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months.  Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ.  Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs.

Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall

[Layman]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the evidence grows that there is a population in NWS that just doesn’t like heat and doesn’t want to hear about it.  They lean less, and insults intelligence in a way, as tho we don’t see right through it…

They downplay it or mock it or do things like that because what’s really going on is their personal attitudes and perspectives overwhelm and it bleeds in - I get it no humans perfectly objective…

But it goes the other way too

I don’t care what these fucks feel  that don’t like hyperbole about heat and extremes tho.  

Guess what ? it is that bad and it needs to be hotly expressed no pun intended, because nobody is paying attention enough to what is clearly an existential threat.  We are in a physical mass extinction event, and there is no other culprit that science can physically connect that isn’tglobal warming.
Fuck it talking bricks

You didn't happen to teach Biology at Manchester Central HS in about 1990 or so did you?  I had a teacher there that was super passionate about all of this and would occasionally use us students as a captive audience to vent to.  Sounded just like this!   I recall this one time when he was on a tear, face getting more and more red as he went on, none of us saying anything and then that apparently pissed him off too so he lays into us with "Are you fkn listening to me!!!?!?!?"  We're all kind of like "Yeah, we really don't have a choice". There was this one skinhead kid in class though that piped up and said "Calm down dude!  You're losing it!"  Good times.  People definitely get passionate about topics they hold dear.

Fuck Central HS.

[weatherwiz]

I think tomorrow is going to be very close with BDL tying their all time record low. 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

I guarantee the vast majority of people here have never bothered to read the entirety of their home insurance policy....they will be surprised when they read the part about paying a certain percentage of the damage ...

How many home owners have flood insurance??

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, wx_observer said:

Don't see this too often:

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly.  The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long.  In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake.  Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. 
The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986.  The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). 

Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours.  

42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared. 

Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible.

In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. 

In Laura, the damage was staggering. 

Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. 

But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. 

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall

I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. 

But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year. 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). 

Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours.  

Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible.

In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. 

In Laura, the damage was staggering. 

Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. 

But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. 

I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. 

But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year. 

...

 

...

 

What sticks out for me relates to a broader topic...

That's a pretty classic tripolar anomaly distribution, which is correlated well with -NAO

Now, at a 50, 000 foot linear correlation the -NAO is typically found during EC cane threats.  The reason can actually be summed up in one sentence:  -NAO means blocking at higher latitudes, which is all but required and prevents a Bahama routed cane from turning NE early.  Up they come...

But there's a caveat emptor:  ...the NAO is not persistent at seasonal scales.  So, merely noting the tripole mode isn't enough.  However, its presence means there's a propensity for waxing and waning of the negative mode.  If one is a cane/denudation of LI enthusiast ... replete with all the  sociopathic wanton of calamity ... ( LOL ), that is good news. Yay.  you at least have increased potential death and loss of property because the hemisphere is in a favorable super synoptic implication.   

[WxWatcher007]

And for the uninitiated 

[Damage In Tolland]

We knew early on this was gonna be a special summer .

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a dangerous time...

This is a perfect sort of historic storm unfolding.   We've created a civility protected from the problems in the environment,   meanwhile ... the relative advantages of that same protection does a couple of things that are big-time negative feedbacks.  

One ... blinds the same civility from experiencing, thus cannot as readily see nor believing the problem is real - "the until it is too late"  trope unfortunately becomes most apropos. Contributing here, I firmly believe that the limitation of a humanity to dimensionalize at such large scales ... is also an offset competition to competency. 

Two, spoiled it's population (and leaders) into believing that not agreeing with science and empirical fact is an entitlement to do so - very odd.  Fake news and the tongue-in-cheek "alternate facts" that began 20 some years ago, isn't just a party trope. It's a fucking major problem.  And thus demonstrate no compunctions exercising entitlement whenever science informs their actions are the problem.

(One + Two )/ 2 = the mathematics of brickery

May also = a nice and tidy Fermi Paradox ... 

2023 demonstrated that the Earth lags in GW; the metaphor 'under tension' fits.  The rate at which the "Anthropocene" epoch has introduced it's loading into the system (you could argue this epoch began when "Lucy" first picked up a burning stick ... but the vast majority just in the last 3-or-so hundred years) has outpaced the system's ability to respond. After all, we are talking a whole planet. 

But that tension has been growing more and more taut.  As soon as background competing offsets falter just a little bit?  Booinnnng.   That .5C sudden globular scaled temperature responses taking place all at once ( in the spring that year) was an planet restoring; unilaterally, all systems of ocean, air and quasi coupled ocean-air systems.  Here's a thought ... when you consider the human experience, the event of a bomb going off is almost instant.  If you think of the planet as experiencing along geologic time spans, the 2023 was just as instantaneous.  That becomes an analog for a bomb going off.  Whole planets rising a half degree C something never before observed - the lack of recognition as a phenomenon is ... again, I believe the scale is too big to comprehend by too many

....the deniers are going to continue to deny. It is part of their DNA. I can tell you played chess just by your posts because you consider other possibilities that other people write off far too quickly.

[Typhoon Tip]

84/67 then with sun beamin' straight down it's gettin' there

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well if you like outages don’t worry. A bona fide hurricane up here would collapse the grid.  

You want to see bad for power outages?  The next hurricane landfall It will crush anything we have ever seen previously in New England.  And all it would take is a min Cat 1 coming in over LI.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, vortex95 said:

You want to see bad for power outages?  The next hurricane landfall It will crush anything we have ever seen previously in New England.  And all it would take is a min Cat 1 coming in over LI.

You get so scared over this!

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Layman said:

You didn't happen to teach Biology at Manchester Central HS in about 1990 or so did you?  I had a teacher there that was super passionate about all of this and would occasionally use us students as a captive audience to vent to.  Sounded just like this!   I recall this one time when he was on a tear, face getting more and more red as he went on, none of us saying anything and then that apparently pissed him off too so he lays into us with "Are you fkn listening to me!!!?!?!?"  We're all kind of like "Yeah, we really don't have a choice". There was this one skinhead kid in class though that piped up and said "Calm down dude!  You're losing it!"  Good times.  People definitely get passionate about topics they hold dear.

Fuck Central HS.

 

Heh, not passion. 

truth - I just don't give a shit to tread lightly around people that haven't earned it. 

Call-outs suck.  too bad.

 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, wx_observer said:

Don't see this too often:

Yes, not really the ENH DY2, but it's location,  I can't recall anything confined to NNE quite like this, at least since ENH was a thing.

And such a sharp cut off to the tstm risk itself.  This screams EML capped, CoastalWx and WxWiz will have to settle for CONS LTGIC IN CB DSNT N-NE! 

Another post coming soon on the event.  Suffice to say, I am very impressed w/ this set up, and it takes a *lot* impress me these days!

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We need this so bad.. I would love to.see peoples reactions around here.. I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and didn't bother me really.. that storm was beyond awesome.. once we started as snow and saw branches starting to sag.. i knew it was going to be something great.. almost constant shotgun blast living near the woods and seeing trees fall all over was awesome.. even had a tree on a power line catch fire.. i ended up calling it in and they said there was nothing they could do about it since they had so many calls. The neighborhood looked like a bomb went off the next morning.. Just a great experience overall and can't wait for another one.. 

 

10 days?  How about a month?  No power that long, ppl will become unraveled and start doing crazy things.  Civil unrest will be rampant in some areas going that long. 

Since we are so tied to the Internet and mobile devices, that withdrawal from that alone will be very bad for many just on a psychological level.  We are actually more vulnerable these days b/c of our reliance on technology.

Be careful what you wish for! 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Kind of shocked we don't have a general thunder area for Wednesday. I still think south of the Pike has chance for storms during the day and there would be a threat for strong/severe with any storms

   if the flow ends up unidirectional in relation to the isohypses from the NW ?    meh

[ineedsnow]

Just now, vortex95 said:

10 days?  How about a month?  No power that long, ppl will become unraveled and start doing crazy things.  Civil unrest will be rampant going that long in some area.  Be careful what you wish for! 

Meh.. lets get a cat3 through SNE 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Falls under the heading of people being careful what they wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. 

Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me.

All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....

 

Thing is... we're never going to get an 'Andrew' up here. 

We can get a higher tier event, obviously.  1938 and maybe 'Carol' in the '50s demo that.  But the true big dawgs are necessarily coupled to a 79.x+ oceanic thermal source that we just cannot really provide N of the Del Marva.

Altho - in recent decades we've seen transient very shallow thermoclines with 80 in the shelf waters S of LI.  That's like a 7 to 10 day window in late August.  It's really shallow though.  10 minutes of NW flow from an early autumn mock trough and it's scoured down to 72 pretty fast.   Not clear whether an exquisitely timed Express event at cat 4 would be coupled to that but I don't think it's sufficient. 

But to the point y'all makin' it's not necessary to get the dystopia.  A busted open deep transitioner still whacking a wallop equiv Cat 3 racing up the CT River Valley ... yeah, that would do the trick. It would spread enough cane gusts and gustnado swarms up over eastern CT/RI/MA and S NH to pretty much shut it all down. 

[butterfish55]

I was a freshman at University of Miami when hurricane Andrew hit. That was crazy, obviously. I'm not sure that the people wishing for a SNE landfall know what storms like that are capable of.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thing is... we're never going to get an 'Andrew' up here. 

We can get a higher tier events, obviously.  1938 and maybe 'Carol' in the '50s demo that.  But the true big dawgs are necessarily coupled to a 79.x+ oceanic thermal source that we just cannot really provide N of the Del Marva.

Altho - in recent decades we've seen transient very shallow thermoclines with 80 in the shelf waters S of LI.  That's like a 7 to 10 day window in late August.  It's really shallow though.  10 minutes of NW flow from an early autumn mock trough and it's scoured down to 72 pretty fast.   Not clear whether an exquisitely timed Express event at cat 4 would be coupled to that. 

But to the point y'all makin' it's not necessary to get that, either.  A busted open deep transitioner still whacking a wallop to to equiv Cat 3 racing up the CT River Valley ... yeah, that would spread enough cane gusts and gustnado swarms up over eastern CT/RI/MA and S NH to pretty much shut it all down. 

 

This. "Low end" C4 is probably the best we can do, and everything would have to align to create the conditions to blunt rapid weakening and/or extratropical transition. There's so much that would factor into whether potential is maximized. But we don't need the highest end cane to have high end impacts. 

As I see it, a large and inertially stable C4/C5 hurricane, taking 1) the 1938 track that blasts to Montreal, 2) a hook left to bring the RFQ into NY Harbor, or 3) an eastward slide that brings the RFQ from Groton to Boston are the nightmare scenarios. 

The other, which we don't talk about but I think is increasingly on the table given CC, is a scenario where a tropical entity is drawn up into the region using the canonical synoptic setup to bring it here, but we see a collapse of the steering flow as it arrives and a biblical rainfall results. It has happened in the recent past in the south (Imelda, Florence as examples) but I think Henri, for all its failure to deliver wind, was proof of concept in New England. 

[WxWatcher007]

The most likely however, is a scenario where something pops off the SE coast or in the Bahamas and it simply intensifies upon final approach or is injected with energy by an approaching trough. Isaias was a good example of this. It was middling off the coast of FL but intensified as it hit NC, and although it was weakening up the coast the trough injection made a difference in NE impacts before the thing could fall apart substantially. 

That's what I'd imagine is possible in a hostile year like this. Getting a CV monster to cross the Atlantic or a tempest to explode in the Caribbean is going to be extremely difficult. You'd need a seedling in the Bahamas or off the Carolina coast that simply found a favorable enough environment and enough time to ramp up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Another heavy downpour just crawling directly along I-90. That area this summer gets it every single time . 

[Brian5671]

Sandy was brutal here-tree damage and a tidal surge of close to a mile inland.   Many had no power for 10 days and the tree cleanup went on for a month....can't imagine a 1938 redux with today's population.  Probably would put a couple insurance companies out of business.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's say a 1938-style hurricane were to be possible (same track, strength, etc). There probably would be some people which take the threat seriously, however, I'm nervous the vast wouldn't. I would assume, however, mandatory evacuations would be ordered at least for the coast which would help but most people I would think probably evacuate inland, particularly if they have friends/family in-state. But I don't think how many people realize just how bad the power outages situation would be. This would be an order of magnitude (or two) greater than Oct. 2011. 80-90% of the state would be without power for weeks and a large portion of that probably at least a month and it could be longer if any substations are completely destroyed. From my understanding, much of the equipment is build overseas and you just can't fly that stuff over, its gotta be shipped by boat and that stuff takes time to build as well. Grocery stores will have generators but could end up being some shortages of food and even gas. It would be ugly 

Can you imagine 75% of customers w/o power in MA/CT/RI alone?  That's what would likely happen w/ another 1938.  Sandy at max had about 8M ppl w/o power I think, but that was spread from BOS to DCA.  How about 8M in SNE alone?  That's *way* worse.

New England direct hurricane strikes being rare have a big plus, but also big minus.  The minus being the population has limited or no experience w/ them so when one finally occurs again, it is a *lot* worse, esp. psychologically, and almost 35 years now since the last? 

A disaster is often only as bad as the preparation, or lack of it. The Gulf Coast and and FL know the deal being through it so often, and they are much better prepared each time b/c of this.  The downside of course is that the get hit more.  Well, everything has a cost/benefit ratio, but there is nothing inherently "wrong" w/ that!  In this case, it's just climo!

And of course when this New England hurricane disaster finally occurs again, they will blame climate change.  Ignore facts and history b/c the "cause" is all that matters. 

So when we had 5 landfalls 1938 to 1960, was it climate change then?  Worst SNE flooding on record also in this period (Connie/Diane Aug 1955).  Why is it almost 35 years now w/ no landfall, which is the record (or second place depending on what you count), when the globe got steadily warmer during this time?  How can this be?  How do you resolve this contradiction to the narrative?  Everything is supposed to get worse across the board!  

This is a problem mindset now, linear and vapid thinking,  Bandwagon fallacy and let emotions rule rather than logic and reason.  Cherry-pick information to maximize the narrative.  Logical fallacies and cognitive bias are *rife* here, and these shortcomings of human nature exploited by TPTB.

Not saying climate change is not a problem, it is (you have to say this b/c otherwise you get "DENIER!"), but they way it is handled is all messed up due political/social/economic factors, among other things.  The science is contaminated.  This I think we all can agree on!

When you talk about anything, esp. a problem, you need to include *all* information.  The narrative for climate change is distinctly lopsided (the world is going to end). and it goes beyond just a particular narrative, it also is highly negative, and negative news sells, plain and simple.  So independent of any politics, the *business* for climate change is huge, and is exploited for profit.

There is unsaid mode for those in power, "never let a problem, disaster, or tragedy go to waste!"