Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[tunafish]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we all please get this in our yards ?

https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/2074336458748416424?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Ah yes.  Enough wind to topple trees but not even budge the patio furniture.

Dummy.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming. Possibly this season 

Not this year. Atlantic is closed. 

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Layman said:

I saw this and thought it might resonate 

For all intents and purposes, this is the truth.

Concerning hot wx, it wasn't so long ago when it was 90+ in New England, they would just say, "a great beach day or BBQ evening!"  Now, "stay indoors and cower in fear b/c it is so dangerous outside!"  You see how inane that is from just a daily living POV.  Yes, you take precautions, but don't let it ruin your day/plans -- or LIFE!  Being put in a constant state of fear/alert, that's not "living," that's "existing!"

Don't get me wrong, I don't like harping about all this and want to avoid the negative, but at the same time, I feel for the public and up and coming mets and wx enthusiasts that either have no context/perspective or just can't figure out what is what, or who is keeping it real, and who is just off the rails hype, and everyone/everything in between!  I know how I would feel if I was a newb and up and coming these days.  For those of us that have been around for awhile, we've all been there!

Most of the public just wants the basic what, when, and where for wx, at least in real time and for practical daily use.  The how and why are secondary or irrelevant!  And ppl I speak to that are not mets, most really appreciate the based and straightforward fcst and wx reasoning.  And they like to learn about why this or why that b/c they all have seen many forms of of wx, and when the big stuff happens and makes a huge impression on them, they wonder, "what the heck caused that!?"  And they all have big storm memories like weenies, it is just more latent/passive, but when you bring an event up, the interest surfaces quickly!

Now for mets and wx enthusiasts, we of course want to know the how and why as well, and that's a good thing.  But the challenge is for many is just plain information overload and sorting it all out.  There is lot of good, solid, and accurate info out there, but also a lot of nonsense and crap.

It's funny back in the day (pre-Internet), wx info, esp. for a weenie, was not easy to come by.  You had the local news and your wx radio, and then TWC by 1982.  And then *any* wx book/magazine you could find at the bookstore or the library (there were not that many, at least compared to the 90s and later)!  And the occasional TV special on wx (NOVA on PBS was really good for this).  That was about it!

Now, it's the other extreme.  TMI and not enough time.  One can actually get stressed out trying to follow and keep up just for all the models alone we have now (CoastalWx?, WxWiz?  LOL)!  And then you have social media and mobile devices.  Sometimes now, I actually *welcome* a quiet period for wx so I can catch up w/ other things!
 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

@Typhoon Tip Will love this

https://www.the-independent.com/life-style/cold-blob-atlantic-ocean-amoc-current-climate-change-b3009895.html

First warm blob, now cold blob, next it will be NEUTRAL blob, and they will find an issue/problem w/ it! 

[rimetree]

The AMOC stuff is interesting to me. I've seen some theories regarding the cold blob possibly causing persistent troughs over that area Tip's reference to our corner of the planet being cooler relative to other regions? 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, tunafish said:

Ah yes.  Enough wind to topple trees but not even budge the patio furniture.

Dummy.

I like the deck chair that slides back and forth like something out of Poltergeist. 

[vortex95]

I wanted to follow up on a post I did last night.   Some details here that may not be so apparent to all, and this evolving pattern provides a good example how it's not "one-size-fits-all" for a given pattern and sensible wx.  The details count and help quantify a fcst better.  In this case, it will not be the same as the pattern we had last week w/ the snow in the Northern Rockies and big heat in the East, despite a strong 500 ridge fcst.

I attached a GIF loop of the GFS 500H/V for the next 10 days.

You can see the ridge axis/center that forms so far N, you actually get tropical-type easterlies across the srn half of the CONUS and westward moving disturbances.  Not tropical waves per se, just weak 500 lows. 

The first shows up over KS/MO/OK at 96 hr and then moves W under the ridge to the Central Rockies where it merges w/ a vort center that is stuck within the ridge, and then it all ends up moving N and then E around the top of the ridge.  And then look at about 156 hr on the SC/GA coast, a small 500 low develops moves W and eventually ends up over srn NM.

In this case, despite the 600 dm ridge, this is not classic big heat pattern for the CONUS.  It's tropical and unstable w/ easterlies across the srn 1/2 of the CONUS and in the Rockies, despite ridging aloft, weak disturbances are embedded w/ a lot of mid-level RH present.  So this means considerable amounts of diurnal RW/TRW, which keeps temps from getting really hot, and is why the 850 temps avg slightly below normal across the srn 1/2 of the CONUS (150 hr ECM 850 anomalies attached)

Also, and I failed to mention this yesterday, yes, it is large and strong ridge, but also a *broad* W to E ridge and wavelengths are not sharp, unlike what happened last week.

Not all ridges of high pressure are alike, but some act like that. Seriously, one well-known TV met actually has said, "two heat domes will merge and become one large one next week."  As if that means anything as to more extreme temps?  That's not how it works for high pressure.  This person is trying to force the notion that when two low pressure merge (like a ET low and TC), it works the same for high pressure, and thus an end product more intense.  Vapid and linear thinking, preying on public ignorance.  Ppl just making things up now for hype!

The "two heat domes" that will "merge" mentioned above.  If you look at the 500 over the CONUS now, they are typical subtropical 500 highs you would find in mid-summer, one over the Desert SW and another one near the Bahamas.  So every ridge of high pressure that has climo hot wx is a heat dome now pushed as unusual?  And these two subtropical highs, look at the 500 evolution, there is no sign of any "merging" here.

I know I have said stuff along these lines before, but I wanted to share another example of how statements on wx just keep devolving more into slop, and at the same time, point out for the ppl on the forum here some of the finer points of a ridge pattern in this case that from a bird's eye view, it many looks the same, but upon closer look, there are important differences that make for different sensible wx.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not this year. Atlantic is closed. 

Will be home brew

[dendrite]

We need to get a good rain event in here ASAP

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We need to get a good rain event in here ASAP

Nearly everyone I know who lives in NH is praying for rain. I know 2 families who are having watered delivered out of fear that their wells are on the verge of running out of water.

The frequency of droughts and the contaminated ground water is going to lead to more and more cities/towns having to install public water systems.

[dendrite]

We’re not that bad, but the extended looks bleak…esp up here.

[Great Snow 1717]

35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’re not that bad, but the extended looks bleak…esp up here.

A major issue in the Londonderry area..

https://vnews.com/2026/04/06/new-hampshire-pfas-remediation-cost/

How the hell does the city of Londonderry agrees to a settlement with Saint-Gobain for only 1.7 million dollars ??? Residents of Londonderry are furious with the settlement.

St Gobain raked in around 50 BILLION last year in revenue..

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’re not that bad, but the extended looks bleak…esp up here.

Wonder if we’ll all go 10 straight days with no rain ?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

A major issue in the Londonderry area..

https://vnews.com/2026/04/06/new-hampshire-pfas-remediation-cost/

How the hell does the city of Londonderry agrees to a settlement with Saint-Gobain for only 1.7 million dollars ??? Residents of Londonderry are furious with the settlement.

I went to Pinkerton

Fuck Londonderry 

[weatherwiz]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

@Typhoon Tip Will love this

https://www.the-independent.com/life-style/cold-blob-atlantic-ocean-amoc-current-climate-change-b3009895.html

Made a comment on this a while back but isn't this sort of a product of the declining +AMO as we transition to a -NAO regime? 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I went to Pinkerton

Fuck Londonderry 

My former 8th grade teacher and freshman football coach Tom Sawyer began the football program at Londonderry...hence the name change from Rangers to Lancers.  

 

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

My former 8th grade teacher and freshman football coach Tom Sawyer began the football program at Londonderry...hence the name change from Rangers to Lancers.  

 

Was that today's Tom Sawyer?  I heard it was a mean, mean ride.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

My former 8th grade teacher and freshman football coach Tom Sawyer began the football program at Londonderry...hence the name change from Rangers to Lancers.  

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Ju-ply is back tomorrow. 

[NoCORH4L]

Who uses toilet paper or paper towels to wipe sweat anyway? Kinda odd.

[Great Snow 1717]

53 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Was that today's Tom Sawyer?  I heard it was a mean, mean ride.

Great band!!...I  doubt he ever expected a song to be written with his name as the title. Lol

And I highly doubt he received an early distant warning while living in his subdivision prior to the release of the song.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

For all intents and purposes, this is the truth.

Concerning hot wx, it wasn't so long ago when it was 90+ in New England, they would just say, "a great beach day or BBQ evening!"  Now, "stay indoors and cower in fear b/c it is so dangerous outside!"  You see how inane that is from just a daily living POV.  Yes, you take precautions, but don't let it ruin your day/plans -- or LIFE!  Being put in a constant state of fear/alert, that's not "living," that's "existing!"

Don't get me wrong, I don't like harping about all this and want to avoid the negative, but at the same time, I feel for the public and up and coming mets and wx enthusiasts that either have no context/perspective or just can't figure out what is what, or who is keeping it real, and who is just off the rails hype, and everyone/everything in between!  I know how I would feel if I was a newb and up and coming these days.  For those of us that have been around for awhile, we've all been there!

Most of the public just wants the basic what, when, and where for wx, at least in real time and for practical daily use.  The how and why are secondary or irrelevant!  And ppl I speak to that are not mets, most really appreciate the based and straightforward fcst and wx reasoning.  And they like to learn about why this or why that b/c they all have seen many forms of of wx, and when the big stuff happens and makes a huge impression on them, they wonder, "what the heck caused that!?"  And they all have big storm memories like weenies, it is just more latent/passive, but when you bring an event up, the interest surfaces quickly!

Now for mets and wx enthusiasts, we of course want to know the how and why as well, and that's a good thing.  But the challenge is for many is just plain information overload and sorting it all out.  There is lot of good, solid, and accurate info out there, but also a lot of nonsense and crap.

It's funny back in the day (pre-Internet), wx info, esp. for a weenie, was not easy to come by.  You had the local news and your wx radio, and then TWC by 1982.  And then *any* wx book/magazine you could find at the bookstore or the library (there were not that many, at least compared to the 90s and later)!  And the occasional TV special on wx (NOVA on PBS was really good for this).  That was about it!

Now, it's the other extreme.  TMI and not enough time.  One can actually get stressed out trying to follow and keep up just for all the models alone we have now (CoastalWx?, WxWiz?  LOL)!  And then you have social media and mobile devices.  Sometimes now, I actually *welcome* a quiet period for wx so I can catch up w/ other things!
 

I refer to it as the softening of society..now days people have more issues handling weather because they are inside a lot more than back in the day..

[WxWatcher007]

I'm sorry, but some of this sounds like hyperbole of the hyperbole. What serious person is out there saying that a 90 degree day in New England is dangerous and requires people staying inside? Everybody knows the information environment is crap on balance. Even the general public to a large degree gets that. A met on local tv saying a heat dome is going to give us highs of 95 with a HI of 105 so take precautions otherwise it can be dangerous is very different from some kid on YouTube saying the heat dome is going to kill everybody. Yeah, they get clicks, but I don't encounter a lot of people in normal life who are cowering in a corner because of something they heard from a random online. 

In the face of a lot of bad information and hype out there, a lot of professionals and serious hobbyists have tried to counter that with using more probabilistic forecasting and communication, contextualizing how weather is not climate, and explaining how the science is the same even when terminology changes. 

To be clear--I believe the information environment is profoundly worse on balance than it was 30 years ago. There is too much hype, too many bad actors cashing in on quackery, and too little nuance introduced whenever we do have high end events (not every hurricane or major flood is directly tied to climate change, not every temperature drop below zero/above 100 is historic, etc) but I don't think it's fundamentally changed how most people make decisions, especially in advance of/during high end events.

Not yet at least. 

[Brewbeer]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How the hell does the city of Londonderry agrees to a settlement with Saint-Gobain for only 1.7 million dollars ???

American capitalism is all about privatizing profits and socializing losses

 

[Layman]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm sorry, but some of this sounds like hyperbole of the hyperbole. What serious person is out there saying that a 90 degree day in New England is dangerous and requires people staying inside? Everybody knows the information environment is crap on balance. Even the general public to a large degree gets that. A met on local tv saying a heat dome is going to give us highs of 95 with a HI of 105 so take precautions otherwise it can be dangerous is very different from some kid on YouTube saying the heat dome is going to kill everybody. Yeah, they get clicks, but I don't encounter a lot of people in normal life who are cowering in a corner because of something they heard from a random online. 

In the face of a lot of bad information and hype out there, a lot of professionals and serious hobbyists have tried to counter that with using more probabilistic forecasting and communication, contextualizing how weather is not climate, and explaining how the science is the same even when terminology changes. 

To be clear--I believe the information environment is profoundly worse on balance than it was 30 years ago. There is too much hype, too many bad actors cashing in on quackery, and too little nuance introduced whenever we do have high end events (not every hurricane or major flood is directly tied to climate change, not every temperature drop below zero/above 100 is historic, etc) but I don't think it's fundamentally changed how most people make decisions, especially in advance of/during high end events.

Not yet at least. 

I saw this posted online and it was presented as real but I didn't verify it.  I don't doubt it however and I believe this is along the lines of what @vortex95 is talking about with regard to hype.  Consider if this bar chart went all the way to zero and those gaps between numbers remained the same - it would challenge the Burj Khalifa!

[weatherwiz]

I really hope we can time an EML plume with the front next week but not looking particularly favorable right now...but we are a bit far out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Uh- oh. He has not left anyone in the region. He got wet , but it only delayed him. He’s amassing troops for another run across lawns and gardens 

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Uh- oh. He has not left anyone in the region. He got wet , but it only delayed him. He’s amassing troops for another run across lawns and gardens 

Smart people use rain barrels to collect water for their gardens..

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Smart people use rain barrels to collect water for their gardens..

What do dumb people that you referring to on here do ?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I refer to it as the softening of society..now days people have more issues handling weather because they are inside a lot more than back in the day..

Agree about the softening, also for folks playing the blame game if they are inconvenienced in any way.  However, the bolded seems counterintuitive. at least from a practical standpoint.  Those out in the wx would seem to be more affected than those sitting in their LRs poking their cellphones.
 

Wonder if we’ll all go 10 straight days with no rain ?

That arrives today; most recent precip was 0.16" on June 28.  The temps running 5° AN during that period exacerbates the drying.