Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Thank god this heat is ending. I don’t mind it but after 5 days it gets old. Happy for some 70s and low 80s. 

Bad for alot of businesses...too hot to sit on a beach or walk around town browsing in shops etc etc

I'm looking forward to the big rain potential!

12Z NAM with a big bump north

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bad for alot of businesses...too hot to sit on a beach or walk around town browsing in shops etc etc

I'm looking forward to the big rain potential!

12Z NAM with a big bump north

I think that is way overdone on a widespread level. I do think there will be a max of something along the lines of 3-4" but I don't think we're going to see widespread 2-3" amounts from this. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like my heatwave winds up being 93-93-93.   Pretty neat. 
 

87 or so for the high here today.  

[Chrisrotary12]

NH Seacoast special later today?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think that is way overdone on a widespread level. I do think there will be a max of something along the lines of 3-4" but I don't think we're going to see widespread 2-3" amounts from this. 

I would tend to agree-but models seem to be moving towards that solution for whatever reason right or wrong.

[CT Rain]

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Subject to change .. but I’ve been thinking .5- .75 .. if lucky 1” If happen to get a storm today that’s not included 

Enjoy the 4th . It’s as hot as a firecracker 

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2073385963242340699?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Good luck with your half inch. 

 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

Yeah 36 hours of that 850 fgen.... with 2" pwats on the south coast.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Good luck with your half inch. 

 

He’s well aware of my thoughts . Thanks for your obsession 

[Damage In Tolland]

With convection involved in the mid Atlantic. Proceed with much caution on big amounts 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery 

Congrats Dendrite

[Damage In Tolland]

If this was winter these wet n wild Mets would be so conservative when they should be gung ho. In summer it’s rains gone wild when so many things could go wrong . Interfering to note 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats Dendrite

it's winter in the summer. 

Someone seems bound though to get some good rains but I'm a little skeptical of widespread amounts that high like the NAM has. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

Hey Ryan... If you have a minute text me the link to that product?

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice 4th up here in Wilton,Maine.  85 and mostly sunny.  

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If this was winter these wet n wild Mets would be so conservative when they should be gung ho. In summer it’s rains gone wild when so many things could go wrong . Interfering to note 

There’s a higher chance of something going wrong for rain in summer than snow in winter?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

There’s a higher chance of something going wrong for rain in summer than snow in winter?

For regional 1-3+ synoptic rains.. I mean yes.. lol

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

For regional 1-3+ synoptic rains.. I mean yes.. lol

I’d feel fairly confident in 1”+ for your location… but yeah, I guess like winter if folks are looking for jackpots those will be narrow.

Someone gets 1.5”, they’ll say they were Steined because somewhere else saw 4.5” and flash flooding.

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter is really good at sniffing these out and which ones are legit vs BS, which narrow zones might be favored etc. Dude has close to a million posts and the day we need him he’s laying at the bottom of Winni 

[powderfreak]

ICON has like a foot for NYC, ha. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’d feel fairly confident in 1”+ for your location… but yeah, I guess like winter if folks are looking for jackpots those will be narrow.

Someone gets 1.5”, they’ll say they were Steined because somewhere else saw 4.5” and flash flooding.

His Davis mysteriously going offline this week.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter is really good at sniffing these out and which ones are legit vs BS, which narrow zones might be favored etc. Dude has close to a million posts and the day we need him he’s laying at the bottom of Winni 

Face down in Center Harbor.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’d feel fairly confident in 1”+ for your location… but yeah, I guess like winter if folks are looking for jackpots those will be narrow.

Someone gets 1.5”, they’ll say they were Steined because somewhere else saw 4.5” and flash flooding.

It seems like a lot of folks are thinking 2-3 and higher amounts will be common.  Would be great if correct. I won’t buy it until we see how things look early morning Monday 

[dendrite]

Luck ran out. 7-10’d. A few sprinkles. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like a lot of folks are thinking 2-3 and higher amounts will be common.  Would be great if correct. I won’t buy it until we see how things look early morning Monday 

Can’t wait for you to get 4” and then post because it didn’t soak in well

[Cyclone-68]

Since when has the NYC area become the Disneyland for exciting weather lately?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can’t wait for you to get 4” and then post because it didn’t soak in well

Man you are balls deep and all in. The lines are drawn!

[weatherwiz]

crazy to think a 45% sig 1 is still only an enhanced.

We may never even see a moderate risk in our area again