Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Thank god this heat is ending. I don’t mind it but after 5 days it gets old. Happy for some 70s and low 80s. 

Bad for alot of businesses...too hot to sit on a beach or walk around town browsing in shops etc etc

I'm looking forward to the big rain potential!

12Z NAM with a big bump north

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bad for alot of businesses...too hot to sit on a beach or walk around town browsing in shops etc etc

I'm looking forward to the big rain potential!

12Z NAM with a big bump north

I think that is way overdone on a widespread level. I do think there will be a max of something along the lines of 3-4" but I don't think we're going to see widespread 2-3" amounts from this. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like my heatwave winds up being 93-93-93.   Pretty neat. 
 

87 or so for the high here today.  

[Chrisrotary12]

NH Seacoast special later today?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think that is way overdone on a widespread level. I do think there will be a max of something along the lines of 3-4" but I don't think we're going to see widespread 2-3" amounts from this. 

I would tend to agree-but models seem to be moving towards that solution for whatever reason right or wrong.

[CT Rain]

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Subject to change .. but I’ve been thinking .5- .75 .. if lucky 1” If happen to get a storm today that’s not included 

Enjoy the 4th . It’s as hot as a firecracker 

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2073385963242340699?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Good luck with your half inch. 

 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

Yeah 36 hours of that 850 fgen.... with 2" pwats on the south coast.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.

That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Good luck with your half inch. 

 

He’s well aware of my thoughts . Thanks for your obsession 

[Damage In Tolland]

With convection involved in the mid Atlantic. Proceed with much caution on big amounts 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is going to be they key I think to where the heaviest totals occur. Have to see where that sets up but sort of seems like that may be just north of SNE. We get into the heavy rains as it moves through but this might be maximized just north. I foresee one big band of rain lifting north then more showery 

Congrats Dendrite

[Damage In Tolland]

If this was winter these wet n wild Mets would be so conservative when they should be gung ho. In summer it’s rains gone wild when so many things could go wrong . Interfering to note 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats Dendrite

it's winter in the summer. 

Someone seems bound though to get some good rains but I'm a little skeptical of widespread amounts that high like the NAM has. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

This is a big/strong signal for big rains. 

 

Hey Ryan... If you have a minute text me the link to that product?

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice 4th up here in Wilton,Maine.  85 and mostly sunny.