Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[weatherwiz]

There is nothing like sitting outside with an IPA and listening to the AC’s hum 

hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmnnnnnmm

its music baby 

[Lava Rock]

Not the worst seat in the house

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Baroclinic Zone]

Where the storms…?

Sitting at 93F at 730pm 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Where the storms…?

Sitting at 93F at 730pm 

About to wipe out EWR.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

About to wipe out EWR.

My guess is EWR will measure 64 knots 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

My guess is EWR will measure 64 knots 

This complex has already had 3 ASOSs measure severe. That's good for around these parts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow looks like same area. Just unreal stretch of nothing 

[Damage In Tolland]

That area has gotten hit at least 4/5 times this summer with bigtime storms . 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow looks like same area. Just unreal stretch of nothing 

A Heady to ease the pain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

A Heady to ease the pain.

That would make me throw up in my mouth . I’m on 3rd good one . We Treehouse currently.

[Damage In Tolland]

I see 53mph EWR

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I see 53mph EWR

That was the first gust front. 71 mph with the meatball.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That was the first gust front. 71 mph with the meatball.

Damn only 2 off 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Damn only 2 off 

Next up JFK.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Next up JFK.

Let’s go 55 knots there 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That was the first gust front. 71 mph with the meatball.

I just don’t understand why that NYC area gets hit so often and we can never get anything like that .  We get warnings that don’t even rain and they blow every plane off runways 

[Snowedin]

90/72

Pure, unadulterated bliss!

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would make me throw up in my mouth . I’m on 3rd good one . We Treehouse currently.

Dis the OG. How dare you. About the only TH I’m consuming right now is their YT page and Nate’s’ beer reviews of classics. I don’t drink much anymore. 

[weatherwiz]

Damn only 45 knots. Looks like the core just missed 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Damn only 45 knots. Looks like the core just missed 

Onto later next week 

[Hoth]

Man, the sunset has strong southern Florida vibes. Just tropical out there.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would make me throw up in my mouth . I’m on 3rd good one . We Treehouse currently.

COC

[Torch Tiger]

Natty lite

[Chrisrotary12]

Played 27 holes in today’s heat. It was a scorcher. 

[rimetree]

95.2 for the max here. About a degree shy of yesterday's mark. Even slightly lower dews with that breeze made a world of difference in comfort level.

[Torch Tiger]

8 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

hmmm well a Great White Shark can come swimming through and fart and that would probably mix the water temp back down into the 60's 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/03/us/shark-attack-new-york-swimmer

  they bitin'

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, tamarack said:

Possibly a TD error - once dews get into mid-70s and above the HI goes nuts.  Some years back I found a couple sites at Iranian oil-handling islands on the Persian Gulf that were reporting 98-100F with TD 88-90 and HI well into the 130s.  Those readings were consistent over several days.  Maybe each site had data issues, or maybe that's the dewpoint capitol of the world. 
(Several times the reports included wind 25-30 mph with condition listed as "sand".  I can't think of a worse wx experience, outside of strong tor/canes.)

Follow-up to CAR minima:  They were reporting 73 at midnight, warmer at 10 and 11 PM, down to 71 by 1 AM.  Looks like their warmest minimum breaks the record, but by 2° rather than 3°.

Thanks for the overview summary.

Dew points often have even bigger issues than temps are ASOS/AWOS sites.  I years ago looking at the OK mesonet (first installed in the mid 90s).  Mesonet sites are typically sited properly and actually geared for climate data (ASOS/AWOS are geared more toward aviation).

So many days when it was hot and high dew points, the ASOS/AWOS would almost universally had higher dew points than the mesonet.  Well, they both can't be right!  I'd take mesonet data over ASOS/AWOS the vast majority of the time.

I recall about 10 years ago during a heatwave, JFK's ASOS DP got wacky and shot to 84 one day.  Not sure what happened there.

Also, there are so many types of wx stations our there (govt and private), all for different uses.  Some are sited to monitor the local environment, like a marsh or a swamp.  So what do you think the dew point will do when the equipment is next to or in a marsh/swamp?    It's similar to all the marine sites out there.  The anemometers are not all at the standard 10m elevation, so you have to account for this when talking records and the like.  AWOS sites on oil platform heliports in the Gulf are often 100 ft or more ASL.

Oh, and how about the AWOS at the smaller airports in the Corn Belt?  IA has it a lot where at a certain times in the summer, the DPs get into the 80s.  That is a local effect since corn has high evapotranspiration.  However, at times this can impact convective initiation and intensity in the state and adjacent areas!  A few papers has done studies on this.

For the Persian Gulf, dew points in the 90s are a real thing in some areas.  Qeshm Island (METAR code: OIKQ) in Iran is one such area.  Every August in the mornings, they get ridiculous DPs in the 90s w/ heat indices as high as 180!
I've checked the METARs and they are legit, given the location and how diurnally  the dew points drops in the aftn as the BL mixed out.

And the island's population is 149k.  Quite impressive that humans can live in such an environment w/ little issues!
 

[jbenedet]

9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow just noticed that.  Cape Cod Bay buoy up to 77.2 and ACK 75.  impressive though it's shallow

I think a big missed effect of these much higher dews and in turn much higher night time temps is to increase SST’s a lot faster than one would expect…

We get it though—without much thought— but only when this is observed in our back yard pool temp…

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Probably a 98-99 BDL today.  I'm up north in the car heading into Gilead in western Maine on Rt 2 and temps are upper 80's. 

  

So BDL unperformed overall.  GFS MOS had 103 Thu/Fri 18z 7/1 and 00z 7/2 runs and still just after was showing 101/102.  Yet "only" 100 and 98 the 2 days.  Wasn't due to convection or clouds.  Any long-term MOS bias for BDL?

I think the only reason why BOS hit 100 Fri was due to NW subsidence and the DP dropping to 57.

What the MSM and others don't tell you or report is that once the dew point drops to 57 or lower, that heat index is actually *lower* than the air temp.  BOS 100/57 at 3pm gave a heat index of 99.

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

Aug 1944

What a stretch

One thing that is apparent, when you look at deep at historical data and wx events of the past, you find many that match or exceed anything today or in recent years.  But history be damned in favor of the narrative.

A friend of mine who gets the small wx calendars that you remove a page a day, he notes obvious bias as to historical wx events.  He has told me it is like nothing ever happened/existed before 2000.  All it talks about is extremes in recent years.  So when I say "narrative,"  I am not pulling things out of thin air.  You can see clear bias and skewed facts all over the place w/ disingenuous motives.

All I am saying is that *all* data/info be reported on or put forth, esp. in the sciences, since it is objective and based on fact.  Then individuals can at least make educated and reasonable points/views/opinions.