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MD 1690 graphic

 Mesoscale Discussion 1690
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211723Z - 211930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the
   afternoon and will necessitate a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent composite radar indicates increasing shower and
   thunderstorm coverage across eastern Pennsylvania on the leading
   edge of mid 70s dewpoints as they advect northward. Most of this
   activity is moving away from the greater moisture/instability, but
   continued northward destabilization is anticipated. In addition,
   broken cloud cover across southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey will
   result in greater instability within this zone. The leading edge of
   a 50 knot mid-level jet (centered around 5-6km) has been sampled by
   the CCX VWP within the last half an hour. As this overspreads the
   warm sector, shear will be in place for storm organization,
   including supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but
   some large hail and a few tornadoes will also be possible. 

   The greatest threat will be across southeast Pennsylvania and New
   Jersey, where the greater instability is in place. However, as the
   warm front lifts northeastward, the threat could extend into
   southeast New York and Connecticut this afternoon.

   ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39187437 38877495 39457648 39867689 41097690 42277653
               42657593 42727456 42487358 42037309 41257279 40597287
               40417378 39187437 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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Just now, NEG NAO said:

those folks ever hear about french drains and sump pumps ?

If you could have seen it come down it would overwhelm almost anything...never seen rain that heavy in that short of a period here.    In the NE thread they posted a graphic-a once in 200 yr event

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

could have also been coming in through under a door or they just had the sump pump without the drains along the walls

I have a friend in the Plainfield area and in one of the recent flooding events there it came pouring in the ground level basement window wells.  Could be any number of reasons with those excessive rates.  Pumps or drains with those rates are not a lock that you are safe.

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9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Contender for stupidest post of the thread… you’re better than that - six inches in 90 minutes. 

ouch ! I take all  what I said back don't want to jinx myself

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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I have a friend in the Plainfield area and in one of the recent flooding events there it came pouring in the ground level basement window wells.  Could be any number of reasons with those excessive rates.  Pumps or drains with those rates are not a lock that you are safe.

Yes we had that during Ida

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Tornado watch was just issued for the city and regions to the north.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

TORNADO WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC005-007-017-021-025-027-035-039-043-047-053-057-059-061-065-
071-077-079-081-085-087-095-105-111-119-220100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0507.260721T1805Z-260722T0100Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX                BROOME              CHENANGO
COLUMBIA             DELAWARE            DUTCHESS
FULTON               GREENE              HERKIMER
KINGS                MADISON             MONTGOMERY
NASSAU               NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)ONEIDA
ORANGE               OTSEGO              PUTNAM
QUEENS               RICHMOND            ROCKLAND
SCHOHARIE            SULLIVAN            ULSTER
WESTCHESTER
$$
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