Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. 

We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April. 

[LongRanger]

This is the most potential we've seen for a snowy winter in many years. That's enough to keep me interested.

How much snow would it take at the airports this winter to bring the 2011-2026 annual average back up to "normnal"? Lots.

[Bob Chill]

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is a -AO is the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

100%. It also correlates strongly to snowfalls in excess of 6". The AO runs in odd cycles. Seems like 10-13 year cycles or something close to that. Ive been suspecting the cycle is flipping the last 2 winters. It would go a long ways in helping us this winter if its predominantly negative. Makes a huge difference with ninos. Just because the nino is basinwide or east based doesn't automatically wreck us. Having a +AO will though lol. 

Based on everything I'm seeing, I'm probably more optimistic about this winter than the vast majority on here. Wont be a cold one like last year I dont think but a persistently suppressed storm track with friendly high latitudes will likely deliver some legit fun even if it melts quick lol. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time. 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Not sure if this Capital Weather link was already shared, but Boom or Bust seems to be the theme for the upcoming winter....

https://www.capitalweather.com/boom-or-bust-five-experts-reveal-their-dc-winter-snow-predictions/

Accuweather needs to bring JB back onboard.  And Matt Rogers can suck it.  

[mitchnick]

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

Yeah ill sign up for that 

[bncho]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!

that white speck in DCA:

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

that white speck in DCA:

You meant AT DCA, right?

[mitchnick]

 

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Not sure how applicable this sample is considering it uses 26 different el nino winters. Besides, I'm always skeptical of anything posted to social media which puts the highest above average snowfall along the most populous stretches of the northeast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?

 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?

 

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

Inject that into my veins

[Eskimo Joe]

This is how you establish cross polar flow and turn Canada into an ice box. A crucial first step for legit snow chances in these parts.

 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Or if we’re lucky, another Dec 5th snowstorm

Dec 5 blizzard

[nj2va]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is how you establish cross polar flow and turn Canada into an ice box. A crucial first step for legit snow chances in these parts.

 

I’m going to Edmonton and Calgary in early December to see the Caps in both cities…I might need two suitcases for all the layers I’ll need.

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

I’m going to Edmonton and Calgary in early December to see the Caps in both cities…I might need two suitcases for all the layers I’ll need.

I’m not going to lie, I’m a little jealous. Have a blast, and bring back some snow with you. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.

[frd]

BAM Weather  @bam_weather

 

 

A #polarvortex split at this point is likely not if but when. This will have significant implications to the 2nd half of NOV and likely introduce much colder risks to the outlook. We will have a full detailed breakdown out to BAM clients today with our updated 3-4 week outlook.

Excellent plots

@Recretos

thank you.

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

Andrej / severe-weather.eu

 

@Recretos

·

10m

 

https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115073153533653480

 

With a lot of talk about the upcoming Polar Vortex disruption and a potentially official SSW (Stratospheric Warming) event, most people cant see what makes this event "unprecedented" as its often called. And for a good reason, as a single map of the #polarvortex can be vague in context.

 

I decided to visualize that context. The official criteria for an SSW event is the reversal (0 or negative value) of the stratospheric winds at the 10mb level along the 60N polar circle line.

 

We are still on the edge if we will reach a reversal with this event, but there are forecast runs that suggest its likely. Link to those live forecasts is in the comments  

 

Most of the SSW events occur in January and February. I decided to look at every first SSW of each season (some seasons had two) and when it occurred. As you can see, a reversal in the current event would break the record for the earliest SSW on date by at least 3 weeks!

 

This is really a strong outlier, and having an SSW this early in the season is what makes this event unprecedented in itself, perhaps more so than any temperature or pressure anomaly in the stratosphere. Its likely not a coincidence we get this with a very strong Super El Niño ongoing in the Pacific. So overall, this is truly a very interesting season for anyone that is into monitoring the weather and seasonal development.

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.

 

 

[LeesburgWx]

Best part of this timing is we won’t have to listen to sun angle comments for any potential snowfall opportunities 

[Eskimo Joe]

BTW, here's the GOAT early season polar disruption. No way am I calling for another 2009-10, just posting for comparison. The Japanese marine heatwave is killing us of late.

 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.

Even if it couples, there is never any guarantee that the impact will be manifest in our little slice of the NH.  Could just as easily be Europe or Siberia.  Or even western NA.  Those are reason why I'm usually underwhelmed by SSW pipe dreams in the middle of a dud January.  This year though, it looks like we want to hope for it, because it might be the only way to avoid a tropical December a la 2015.  And remember that for the December 2015 torch it took the majority of Jan 2016 to recover the NA thermal profile, and you guys were as far south as that recovery went as far as significant snow.  I wouldn't place good odds on that happening again 10 years later.