Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I didn't mean to single you out, but keep seeing posts about how Oct snow means doom for winter. Maybe a case can be made about specific patterns that set up in October correlating to an overall unfavorable pattern for the winter.

Big november snow also locks in a crappy winter. The big sample size of 1987 was used in my deep analysis. 

[mitchnick]

Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. 

These maps are for DJF combined fyi.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

[mitchnick]

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

[psuhoffman]

On 10/3/2026 at 10:01 AM, WxUSAF said:

02-03 winter in state college was epic and made up (mostly) for the dismal first 3 winters I had there. We had snow for Halloween 2002 and winter kept going until Easter 2003.

That was my last winter there and the only good one I experienced.  I remember the Halloween snow.  

[bncho]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

 

 

[bncho]

I don’t know how WW does this for a living it took like 10 entire minutes to copy and paste the images

[mitchnick]

I'll try this again. Lol

I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too.

Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?

[Eskimo Joe]

@griteater posting

 

 

[ravensrule]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

I don’t know how WW does this for a living it took like 10 entire minutes to copy and paste the images

He is retired, he has plenty of free time. Thank you @Weather Will for giving all your free time to this board. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'll try this again. Lol

I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too.

Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?

H5 looks about the same for the winter months.

Feb-

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 looks about the same for the winter months.

Feb-

Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I  think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I  think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months. 

I meant to add that I am surprised the Euro didn't come in warmer for December. What it shows suggests December has a chance for accumulating snow for most of the forum, albeit modest the way those temps look.

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/2/2026 at 11:26 PM, Terpeast said:

October snows are a bad omen

Seems to be so in the modern climate. Not so much in the "old days" . Oct. 13, 77 measurable snow in SWVA. Oct 10, 79 major snow Shenandoah valley and measurable much of MA(Orioles game). Those following Winter's turned out below avg T's and average to above Snowfall.

  There's several instances further back that show similar outcomes.

   The Latest good following was '95-96.  trace amounts Oct 25 in portions of the MA and Tn Valley. 

[Weather Will]

Latest Snow anomaly map from EURO seasonal. Source: Severe Weather Europe  

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-forecast-october-update-colder-snowier-shift-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest Snow anomaly map from EURO seasonal. Source: Severe Weather Europe  

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-forecast-october-update-colder-snowier-shift-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Thanks. But it's actually the change from October's run from September's. Going in the right direction for many.

[WEATHER53]

We are going to be very good this winter. 2002-03 keeps showing up.  That means the general pattern more than one huge storm but such storm is not discounted 

I also look at first half of October  as to how far off NWS and others are in predicting below average temps in the 5+ day prior to.  This cool shot prediction  had DC in upper 50’s for highs initially which verified more like 63-64 so about 5/6 degrees off .  

[WEATHER53]

On 10/5/2026 at 10:52 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Seems to be so in the modern climate. Not so much in the "old days" . Oct. 13, 77 measurable snow in SWVA. Oct 10, 79 major snow Shenandoah valley and measurable much of MA(Orioles game). Those following Winter's turned out below avg T's and average to above Snowfall.

  There's several instances further back that show similar outcomes.

   The Latest good following was '95-96.  trace amounts Oct 25 in portions of the MA and Tn Valley. 

Yeah me and a buddy were going to that game and watched the snow instead from our balcony . About 1.5” in Beltsville with huge amounts out in Skyline

[SnowenOutThere]

Will caution those who loves the latest CANSIPS pattern. While it looks good for storm track, the heights rising off the East coast give me some pause as we've been burned by a good NAO high pressure linking with the southeastern ridge. Additionally, with temperature anomalies in the Gulf stream being several degrees above average I wonder if the models may underestimate the southeastern ridge. Of course, too far out to draw any real conclusions, but I might favor a further west track than the H5 alone would suggest. Think it might be a big year for the mountains, especially the ridges that will be a few (possibly key) degrees colder. Also think @mitchnick's theory that it will be winter where we might have to be patient and watch a lot of rainstorms that slowly pull the boundary south before we get a limited window to get a follow up wave. That said, I could see a @psuhoffman nightmare situation where we see the boundary be pushed south before getting a perfect track rainstorm with snow confined solely to the high mountains due to just not having enough cold air. By the end of October we should have a better picture as the October NAO negative correlation to winter's NAO is our first real significant one. 

[WxUSAF]

Bad news. Judah Cohen says that the slow rate of Siberian snowcover advance in the (*checks notes*) FIRST SIX DAYS OF OCTOBER implies a mild winter.

[Chris78]

44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bad news. Judah Cohen says that the slow rate of Siberian snowcover advance in the (*checks notes*) FIRST SIX DAYS OF OCTOBER implies a mild winter.

So expect a big winter. Got it. 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Bad news. Judah Cohen says that the slow rate of Siberian snowcover advance in the (*checks notes*) FIRST SIX DAYS OF OCTOBER implies a mild winter.

I thought the "theory" was the rate of change thru the entire month of October. 

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I thought the "theory" was the rate of change thru the entire month of October. 

Seems he already knows where the next 25 days are headed so hang it up folks. Winter 26-27 time of death: 10/7/2026

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems he already knows where the next 25 days are headed so hang it up folks. Winter 26-27 time of death: 10/7/2026

That makes JI late to the party.