2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hurricane Karina has been 125kt from last night into this afternoon. Just add a "T" and you've got Hurricane Katrina!

Pac putting on a show now.

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

As mentioned in a previous post, we still need to watch that developing buzzsaw (Lowell) for a northward turn in a few days. Some of the globals have been flirting with Kauai every other operational run. It may ultimately miss to the west, but that may not be nailed down yet until we see how trough interaction evolves.
 

I looked at ensembles today and I've perked up. Looking at the big ensemble, the turn has definitely trended east in the last few cycles. This is the 00z and I'm guessing 12z will be a bit further east. 

[vortex95]

It's complex for Lowell's track.  Karina moving into to area N of the islands will likely play a role here as to how strong it may be when it get closer to the trough to the NW, and how it influences the depth and position of the main upper-level trough itself!

It is quite a strong 200 mb trough that develops NNW of the islands, but it only digs so far S, and at first it is positively titled and then goes negative, but at that time, it lifting is N rapidly, and then Lowell gets left behind well NW of the islands and starts moving W again.

And the ensembles reflect this w/ a recurve path NNE and then it goes back NW.  Where will the inflection point be!?

Given the intensity of Lowell, 200 mb flow is good to use for general steering flow in this case.

This is not like Iwa in 1982 or Iniki in 1992.  Those were picked up by strong troughs to the W of islands much farther S, so their tracks were more straight-shooter, acceleration N going ET fairly quickly after passing the islands.  Dot's track in 1959 is not the same setup either, and the 1871 estimated Cat 3 hit the eastern side of the Big Island coming in from the, so no real good analogs here when it comes to very close passes or direct hits on HI for hurricanes.

Has social media latched on to this threat yet?  You know how that goes!  @weatherwiz has a great post recently on the Edouard thread about wishcasting, some trying everything and anything to make Edouard to RI.  It did start that process. but it ran out of time, and the finer details looking at it evolution in real time that were fascinating in itself were overlooked (not here, elsewhere).

Beyond the actual meteorology, I often think about the social and economic factors/impacts.  The Lowell threat to HI that is starting to ramp up now about 6 days before any sig impacts, it going to hurt travel/vacation to the state.  And say the western part of the state gets hit, the hype/doom will be so intense, ppl are going to think he entire island chain was devastated, and that has huge impacts well down the road for tourism and the like.
 

[Windspeed]

The 18z ECMWF operational is more gradual with Lowell's northward turn and is slower with the capture of both Karina and eventually Lowell by the mid-to-upper trough. Lowell passes by at a further distance from Ni'ihau and Kauai before turning back towards the NW as the trough fills/weakens. The 00z GFS is much faster with Karina's capture, and the trough has a stronger influence on Lowell, impacting both islands. To be clear, at this range, both OPs are too close for comfort, and I am sure this is going to further fuel speculation tomorrow.





Here is the 00z ECMWF. Still misses to the west, but it appears to be a closer pass than the 18z run:

[Windspeed]

This is now on the short end of the midrange at no less than 120 hrs out now. Yet, it still should be tabbed with unusual uncertainty due to the lower accuracy of modeling a trough capture interaction. Yet, these are severe modeled impacts we have to watch. I must also be clear that the GFS has had its issues. Really, all global OPs have due to various lacking of data sampling. That being said, five days is, well, five days. We're creeping closer into short-range territory. Does this hold? I must admit I don't like this appearance. Any undermodeling of that trough and cutoff evolution, and we're even further east. Never like to be east of these when it comes to a southwesterly steering current.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Regardless of a direct hit on Kauai, there will be major coastal impacts. Lots of captured fetch and huge waves. Luckily the Hawaiin islands are used to large surf from the northern and southern hemisphere.


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