Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

WTTE. They said 70’s thru mid July and blue 

[Torch Tiger]

645 pm or so

[512high]

37 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

645 pm or so

Nice pic

[WxWatcher007]

Blue skies, blue skies.

 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTE. They said 70’s thru mid July and blue 

18z GFS is just a bit different   also who said through mid July 

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS is just a bit different   also who said through mid July 

20s and 30s at night that's what everyone was saying. I can't find a link but I'll repeat it all day.

[kdxken]

Let's go high res! Stupid rain.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

More storms rolled through, cleared out nicely this evening for grill, steak and some beverages outside.

 

 

Your pad always looks absolutely dialed, very aesthetically pleasing summer scene.

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR looks great here.. we rain! 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

645 pm or so

[ineedsnow]

0z NAM and HRRR are pretty close now..  Jackpot in Templeton? 

[CoastalWx]

Should be a decent soaking in SNE. Given how these things sort of peel right figuring that and what models have overall, I think most areas get a good soaking.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be a decent soaking in SNE. Given how these things sort of peel right figuring that and what models have overall, I think most areas get a good soaking.

about time!

[dendrite]

I’d be happy with 0.75-1.00”. So it can feel free to peel over tblizz’s wives after that.

[dendrite]

Looks like a decent morning too…may be a good time to get fert/compost around the fruit trees.

[Torch Tiger]

Friday is next failed severe threat?  LFG

[Modfan2]

Looks like congrats @ineedsnow north on the rain; possibly .4-.9” here in E CT…. will see what happens. Wouldn’t be shocked if it wagons north and we get .25

[kdxken]

59 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like congrats @ineedsnow north on the rain; possibly .4-.9” here in E CT…. will see what happens. Wouldn’t be shocked if it wagons north and we get .25

Dandyland special on the mesos

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like congrats @ineedsnow north on the rain; possibly .4-.9” here in E CT…. will see what happens. Wouldn’t be shocked if it wagons north and we get .25

Maybe even not a drop?

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

I’d be happy with 0.75-1.00”. So it can feel free to peel over tblizz’s wives after that.

You’ll be soaked. Not sure how much convection will be generated here, but good synoptic rains there.

[Modfan2]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe even not a drop?

Hope that’s not case, need something beneficial out of this. Next shot would be Friday.

[SJonesWX]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve gotten hit multiple times already 

hit by what? i am at 1.25" MTD

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

hit by what? i am at 1.25" MTD

You’ve been hit by a smooth criminal. 
 

 

 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ve been hit by a smooth criminal. 
 

 

 

Need an AI version with Stein dancing in that video instead of MJ.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need an AI version with Stein dancing in that video instead of MJ.

Just dancing around Kevin asking “Kevin are you ok, so Kevin are you ok, are you ok Kevin?

[weatherwiz]

May get some loud overnight elevated convection tonight across SE CT into MA and far SE MA

[Typhoon Tip]

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV.   We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. 

In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada.  I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that.  So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent.  The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happening - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there's emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer.  Complex.  

Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave.   In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes.  This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity.    

I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal.  But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been. 

[CoastalWx]

A few days of warmth late month and early July and then cools off a ridge retros. Close to cancelling summer. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah Julorch looks above normal with no cool in Canada but not hot. A lot of 83-88 with dews and hopefully daily storm chances with the Midwest trough 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah no