Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[weatherwiz]

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

89/56

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow. 

Looks like 7/10 split for SNE overall 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like 7/10 split for SNE overall 

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low. 

Seems like NYC south and CNE/ NNE. Just scattered at best SNE

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like NYC south and CNE/ NNE. Just scattered at best SNE

best chance of severe yes. 

But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized 

[Chrisrotary12]

Now this is summer. 86/55