Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[weatherwiz]

Off to Wilton, CT. 

Decided on a bit farther south and can adjust north or a bit south if need be...traffic dependent. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

94-95 is probably off the table.  88 and mostly cloudy.  

[dendrite]

Key West afternoon

[Torch Tiger]

Heck of a day. 90 North Billerica

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

75 dew currently, This is what it’s all about. 

Absolutely

[dendrite]

Even 74-75 dews at the airport sites up here.

Still not installed yet either. Love it!

[CT Valley Snowman]

high of 89 so far but should hit 90 over the next hour.  

[powderfreak]

Highs early next week might be similar to our current dew points up here.

[512high]

Shop Davis 90F/73

[NoCORH4L]

Is next week actually going to be BN, or just N?

[SouthCoastMA]

89/70

[hudsonvalley21]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html

[metagraphica]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Wxwiiz mad he missed this???  CoastalWx proby just MEH!  LOL.

Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY.  Hail up to 2" in diameter.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E8jBs32e1/

 

Video of hailfall:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=999500782484311

 

Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1TsM5ejxkj/

 

NW flow delivers!  The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little.

Also, June 20, 1995. See here:

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/remembering-the-1995-hail-storm/16546/

 

These were great storms. Found clear evidence of a microburst during my walk today.  Multiple oaks snapped off about 30' up and all the low level, chest high brush had their leaves flipped inside out and pointing in similar directions. Probably a 1/2 mile square area of coverage.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Highs early next week might be similar to our current dew points up here.

el dependent?

 KBTV   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/12/2026  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  64  86| 63  85| 58  75| 55  75| 55  83| 63  77| 60  75| 56 55 76
 TMP  71  79| 71  77| 62  69| 61  69| 63  76| 68  71| 64  69| 61      
 DPT  56  52| 57  60| 51  46| 48  46| 51  53| 58  57| 54  50| 51      
 CLD  CL  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC      
 WND  10  10| 11  13| 10   8|  9  10|  9  18| 19  19| 18  13| 10      
 P12  13   6| 20  74| 55   9| 25  20| 23  25| 39  61| 44  31| 24 32 31
 P24      13|     85|     57|     30|     37|     78|     51|       48
 Q12   0   0|  0   3|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   5|       |         
 Q24       0|      3|      1|      0|      0|      4|       |         
 T12   2   6| 12  37| 19   3|  7   8|  7   9| 17  19| 17  14| 10      
 T24        | 12    | 44    |  7    |  8    | 20    | 24    | 16     

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

el dependent?

Quite honestly didn’t dig into it much, to compare the forecast here to the Champlain Valley.

Was just looking at the NWS zone forecast for here and saw Upper 60s to near 70F for 2-3 days… which is around where dews are now.

Monday

Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. 

Monday Night Through Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

el dependent?

 KBTV   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/12/2026  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  64  86| 63  85| 58  75| 55  75| 55  83| 63  77| 60  75| 56 55 76
 TMP  71  79| 71  77| 62  69| 61  69| 63  76| 68  71| 64  69| 61      
 DPT  56  52| 57  60| 51  46| 48  46| 51  53| 58  57| 54  50| 51      
 CLD  CL  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC      
 WND  10  10| 11  13| 10   8|  9  10|  9  18| 19  19| 18  13| 10      
 P12  13   6| 20  74| 55   9| 25  20| 23  25| 39  61| 44  31| 24 32 31
 P24      13|     85|     57|     30|     37|     78|     51|       48
 Q12   0   0|  0   3|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   5|       |         
 Q24       0|      3|      1|      0|      0|      4|       |         
 T12   2   6| 12  37| 19   3|  7   8|  7   9| 17  19| 17  14| 10      
 T24        | 12    | 44    |  7    |  8    | 20    | 24    | 16     

This doesn't strike me as anything too cold. About time for a little cooldown after this epic torch of a start to summer. Look at these forecast departures & percentiles for average daily high temps for the 1st half of June - unbelievable!

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

This doesn't strike me as anything too cold. About time for a little cooldown after this epic torch of a start to summer. Look at these forecast departures & percentiles for average daily high temps for the 1st half of June - unbelievable!

Can you imagine if we ran a full month of +9F? Wow!

[Torch Tiger]

Sunday

...Mid-Atlantic...

   Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
   MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
   eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
   pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
   within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
   damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
   northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
   degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
   possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
   2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
   period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
   and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
   probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

[dendrite]

Coldest week of our lives next week.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Can you imagine if we ran a full month of +9F? Wow!

I feel like we’ve done it in the winter… or at least +7 to +8 recently up this way when radiating conditions are really poor.  

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Can you imagine if we ran a full month of +9F? Wow!

Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure

I meant for an entire summer month.

[dendrite]

95-99% percentile for the first half of June and some are frustrated that summer hasn’t set in yet.

This would be like starting the first 2 weeks of Dec at -10 with a couple of good snow events.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Coldest week of our lives next week.

Going to have to keep the kids indoors and find other ways to keep them occupied if it’s going to be that cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

95-99% percentile for the first half of June and some are frustrated that summer hasn’t set in yet.

This would be like starting the first 2 weeks of Dec at -10 with a couple of good snow events.

It seems there’s only one person frustrated and that person will have some of the hottest temps next week with West flow DSD

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I meant for an entire summer month.

Yeah, I hear ya. 

Fact of the matter is...we also have not yet to experienced a synergistic/resonant feed-back heat scenario in this region of continent.  They're actually studied in climate as "synergistic heat waves" world over.

I may be that we can't.  We might just have too many goephysical traits that make that less able to happen here, but like western Europe and Australia, the steppe of the Urals and over in Russia ... Chinese Asia...  The Pacific NW in 2020 is an example of that, where carried on for 10 days at some 35+ for high temps.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Again ... Brian's sarcasm is well placed and probably needed as a dose of reality, but I contend that the image of the pattern as a skewing force.  The constant bombardment of model engagement is tinting perceptions perhaps.

As I've been pointing out, there's a bit of a disconnect that's been evolving over particularly the last 20 years, where the pattern and the temperature results seem unmatched. 

Take next week on the GFSX machine.  All SNE sites, BDL-MHT, are between 81 and 84. 

That's climo resulting from a pattern that looks below normal. Add to that, as we get out to D3..4, those numbers get increasingly weighted by climatology, so... any 84 next Thursday could very well actually be upper 80s...  Now we're talking above normal in a below normal looking pattern.

But people are only remembering the pattern at the end of the months.  

This is how perception divorces reality - or at least one way in which the observer is kind of manipulated.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Off to Wilton, CT. 

Decided on a bit farther south and can adjust north or a bit south if need be...traffic dependent. 

boring and hot nothingness chasing ?

  ooh, make sure to get some videos

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

boring and hot nothingness chasing ?

  ooh, make sure to get some videos

yeah not sure what we get today after being hammered yesterday but that area is a bit west and missed out yesterday so maybe they get it today?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah not sure what we get today after being hammered yesterday but that area is a bit west and missed out yesterday so maybe they get it today?

I'm kinda bustin balls.   Truth be told, not sure what the convective temp/sequencing is.  We may just need another hour of heating, which can happen at this time of year until 5:30 really. 

I tell you what, on a separate note high heat a day after severe convection anywhere around here is definitely a Gretta effect -