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Junorch obs and discussion 2026


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8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

certain mets have been touting plenty of storms and downpours tonight, what could possibly go wrong?!  You don't trust them?  Drop the fert and be done with it!

I think 50/50 shot of getting a storm here. Or at least .25 which is minimum needed to wash in . Late timing generally weakens storms  but it’s not impossible 

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20 hours ago, kdxken said:

Ahead of the tornadoes, communities across the region were battered by massive hailstones, with baseball-sized hail reported in multiple towns. Cape Cod experienced vivid, continuous lightning for nearly three hours that evening

The Cape Cod CONS LTG. I am pretty sure it was from a second wave after the 3 tornadic supercells in the afternoon.  A few years ago, high quality photos surfaced taken from central MA showing local damage and also showed a very crisp and impressive CB in the distance to the E close to sunset.  So that would jibe w/ the Cape Cod LTG.

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14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

AC cranked last two days. Summer is here. Months and months left.

Definitely a CoastalWx switch I see.  He is leaning more towards having a PT in the warm season w/ time and all the wx phenomena that comes w/ that!

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Isn’t it a bit late in the spring season to be dropping fert ?  Especially since you are calling for HHH weather which tends to put our grass into dormancy.  I could see it if there were a stretch of cool and wet weather coming, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.  

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

A bit of a change in plans.

Going to go to Bennington, VT and start from there. There are some decent viewing spots. Secondary area (which would be only 30 minutes away) is Wigwam Western Summit in North Adams which looks like it has a tremendous view to the west. 

Really tough part about today is the mesoscale aspect of how this unfolds. The greatest potential seems to be well down into PA but given its a very late PM threat its probably not worth the 4+ hour drive. 

15z RRFS shows the classic "cell ahead of line" near RUT.  15z HRRR looks somewhat better that prev runs for the SQLN holding on better farther E.

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4 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

Isn’t it a bit late in the spring season to be dropping fert ?  Especially since you are calling for HHH weather which tends to put our grass into dormancy.  I could see it if there were a stretch of cool and wet weather coming, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.  

Summer in Tolland begins on May 1.

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3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

12 and 3 km NAM soundings show half-decent spinner potential in VT, but these models tend to overdo it a bit.  Small window 4-6pm for Scott supercells in VT.

If we can keep the sfc wind direction more S/SE there may be some transient supercells involved. LCL heights are really high though.

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20 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Sounds like '89. Had penny size hail and continous lightning for more than 3 hours in falmouth

Thunderstorms are like orgasms. Twenty minutes of fun and then it’s over. Haven’t had a sustained thunderstorm more than a half hour in many years. But hey, I’ll take anything including 20 minute orgasms 

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