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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion


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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Radar looks like ass for this evening can't believe i missed this

 

 

Once again we failed because 1. Early morning WAA crapvection and 2. Too much forcing for ascent driven by a strong synoptic system, which ultimately leads to clusters of storms every which way simply occupying the same spaces. It's the same problem we had with the Moderate Risk bust a few months ago. Too much convection.

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21 hours ago, enpawx_observer said:

image.png.9eab0bd6f41ae823f7a1b5f53927193f.png

 

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

I was wondering what happened when my GR2Analyst stopped updating yesterday.  I eventually switched to KDOX.

I ended up at 87 for a high after a 69 low and only picked up 0.34" total from 2 rounds yesterday .

Today was like day and night with the dp drop... actually tolerable.  High was 82 after a 69 low and smoke mostly cleared out.  Currently mostly sunny and 80 with dp 60.

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The NAM and HRRR look drastically different for Tuesday. The NAM has widely scattered storms in eastern PA while the main line stays in western PA and dissipates as it reaches this area. The HRRR plows a strong line of storms through the region on Tuesday evening. It’s a decent setup without as many fail modes as Saturday…but we still need things to come together the right way. It’s not easy to get a severe outbreak around here.

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Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.

image.png.8ed1531493e9d42c48a0aa14f8438aab.pngimage.thumb.png.dcf6a8179cfcac2f7884f68137fcef4c.png

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