May 2026

[steve392]

Spurts if heavy rain down here in Monmouth County. Rain looks to probably miss most of this area.  Sussex county getting a much needed soaking g. 

[psv88]

Got my son’s baseball game in just in time. Showers now and 0.16” so far. 

[bkviking]

Off and on rain but 3rd bout of heavy rain in past hour in Port Jefferson. Seems like a lit up red line on radar keeps training over my area. Gonna be some big totals from this..

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and wpac typhoon seasons should be historic.


.

Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming. 

[psv88]

Nice downpour. 0.86”

[psv88]

Overperformer out here. Up to 0.93” with more to come. Wasn’t expecting an inch plus 

[donsutherland1]

After some additional rain and showers tonight into early tomorrow, tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer under variably cloudy skies. Highs will likely top out in the middle 70s. Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall.

Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary stalls near the region. Warmer air could arrive during the weekend.

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was +6.07 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[FPizz]

.11" bust. Sunny now

[guinness77]

Had a nice line run through while I was dropping the family off at the outlets in Deer Park. It was absolutely pouring for about 5 minutes on the way back to the house. Luckily, they got into the theater before it started. Beautiful early evening sun, might get a quick dog walk in. 

[psv88]

1.10” nice drink. Everything will stay nice and lush 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I expect another baseline temperature jump this year. The amount of heat release in the pacific is going to be astronomical. The cpac hurricane and wpac typhoon seasons should be historic.


.

We lose some aspect of the past climate with every baseline temperature jump. But we have to wait until after the event to see specifically what changes will occur.

The first one in 1997-1998 put a 1995-1996 snowy benchmark season out of reach for us. The same for the 1993-1994 record cold with benchmark snows in Central to Eastern PA.

It was also the beginning of the all or nothing snowfall pattern which lead to more seasons of 30”+ and 18” or lower. Leading to a significant decline in the 19” to 29” winters which were common place from the 1960s to early 1990s. So every snowy season featured it least one KU benchmark event. The absence of KU events has been a feature of the low snowfall winters. 

It took around 9 years after that event 1997-1998 event  for the warmth to make it to the Arctic leading to the big thickness drop and record lower range we have been in. Then a smaller jump in 2010 shifted the summer temperatures to a warmer base that we have been in.

Then the historic December 2015 +13 kicked off the era of significantly warmer winters. Places like DC to Philly haven’t seen close to the cold and benchmark snow of the 2009-2010 winter. Same for the Great Lakes not repeating the benchmark snow and very cold conditions of 2013-2014. Plus the Boston historic snows in 2014-2015.

Then the rapid warming of the WPAC east of a Japan following this event eventually leading to the faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and decline in 2020s snowfall for us compared to the record snowy 2010s.

We did get a nice bounce back winter in 2025-2026 with the first benchmark KU since 2020-2021  and 2021-2022. Still uncertain how the winter storm tracks will respond following this event. 

The 2023-2024 jump is most recent with 2 of the warmest winters on record occurring for the CONUS in the last 3 years. Hard to say how long the severe drought pattern which developed across the U.S and Canada following this event will last. It will be interesting to see if this 2026-2027 event can shift the pattern to wetter at least temporarily or shift us back to drier again following the event. Very challenging to do multiyear precipitation forecasting.  

It took 18 years between 1998 to 2016 for that baseline jump to occur. Then only 8 years between 2016 and 2024. Now all the models are indicating the first time for a +2.1 or greater ONI El Niño only 3 years apart and baseline temperature jump. So for the entire planet we are moving into an unknown zone with such rapid warming occurring over shorter intervals of time. 

[MANDA]

.38" here last 24 hours.

Some winners and losers across the area.

[SACRUS]

57 / 55 marine fog to burn off and setup a nice 6 hours of sunny / warm mothers day before clouds / cooler return for the week.  Mon - Wed and Thu - cool / cloudy and wet 0.50 - 0.75.  Tuesday brief reprieve.  By Friday we should be setting up an overall nice period next weekend with moderation to a warmer and persistently above normal period by the 19th.  The period 17 - 24 could see next shot at >80 and 90s.   Ridge into the east to close the month on a warm to hot aide.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1979)
NYC: 94 (1979)
LGA: 91 (1979)
JFK: 90 (1979)


Lows:

EWR: 34 (1947)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 38 (1966)
JFK: 34 (1966)

Historical:

 

1905 - A deadly tornado hit the town of Snyder, OK, killing 87 persons. The tornado leveled 100 homes in Snyder, and destroyed many others. The large and violent tornado killed a total of 97 persons along its 40 miles path across southwestern Oklahoma. Its roar could reportedly be heard up to twelve miles away. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1906 : LATEST SNOW ON RECORD at the Washington Weather Bureau Office It snowed for 33 minutes and the temperature reached 79 °F the next day.

 

1945: A rare late season coastal storm dumped 7 inches of snow on Portland, ME and 0.3 inches of snow fell at Fort Wayne, IN; their latest measurable snow.

1953: Four F4 tornadoes touched down in parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. One F4 tornado moved northeast from northeast of Fountain City, WI to Colburn, WI. Total damage from this tornado was $1 million dollars and it caused 10 injuries.
The second F4 tornado moved from 5 miles southwest of Chester, IA to 4 miles northeast of Chatfield, MN. One man was killed as his barn was destroyed one mile southeast of Wykoff. A rural school was leveled 3 miles south of Chatfield as well.
The third F4 tornado moved northeast and passed about 2 miles northwest of St. Charles, MN. Farms were torn up all along the track. An infant was killed and 4 other people were injured in a car that was thrown 100 feet. Overall this tornado killed one person and injured 11 people.
The final F4 tornado moved across Rusk, Price, and Taylor counties in Wisconsin. Over $150,000 worth of damage resulted. An F3 tornado moved northeast across Clayton County, Iowa. At least 60 head of cattle were killed. A farmer was carried 700 feet, but suffered only minor injures.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1963: Record Maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 95 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1966 - Morning lows of 21 degrees at Bloomington-Normal and Aurora, IL, established a state record for the month of May. (The Weather Channel)

1970: A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 people, injuring more than 500 others, and causing $135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco, TX killing 114 people. A second tornado killed two others people in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977: On May 9th and 10th Boston, MA had 0.5 inches of snow the most in 24 hours for May and heavy snow over the interior MA.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)
This storm, which began on the 9th, was an elevation storm. 20 inches of snow fell at Norfolk, CT (elevation 1,337 feet) while downtown Hartford received only 1.2 inches. The highest total occurred at Slide Mountain, NY (elevation 2,600 feet) with 26 inches falling. Extensive damage to trees and power lines occurred with 500,000 people without power following the storm. This was the first May snow in 107 years of records at Boston, MA although only 0.5 inches fell there. However, in the nearby suburb of Bedford, 9.5 inches fell. Worcester, MA recorded 12.7 inches, the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA measured 7.8 inches, and Providence, RI had 7 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1982: An F3 tornado was first sighted six miles west of Tintah, MN. Two farms sites were damaged west of Tintah. Nearly one dozen farm buildings were destroyed and 50 cows were killed. Hail as large as softballs preceded the tornado into Tintah where there was extensive damage. A school and church received heavy damage, two railroad cars were overturned, homes and grain buildings were damaged and utility poles and trees were up rooted. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Summer-like "Father's Day" type weather prevailed in the north central and western U.S. for "Mother's Day", as seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Jamestown ND soared to a record high of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms along the Central Gulf Coast deluged Lillian AL with 14.5 inches of rain, and nearby Perdido Key FL with 12.8 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced hail and high winds over the Atlantic Coast Region and the Gulf Coast States marking the end of a five day episode of severe weather associated with a cyclone tracking out of the Great Basin into southeastern Canada. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Butte MT, and gusts to 77 mph at Choteau MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A spring storm produced heavy snow in Upper Michigan and eastern Wiscosin. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Marquette MI, with eight inches reported at Muskego WI and Hartford WI. The heavy wet snow, and winds gusting to 35 mph, damaged or destroyed thousands of trees, and downed numerous power lines. Total damage from the storm was more than four million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


1991: Severe thunderstorms blasted western Texas and Nebraska. 15 tornadoes were reported in western Texas. Three miles northwest of Lazbuddie, a complex of 5 tornadoes touched down within 10 minutes of one another. This consisted of the main funnel, rated an F2 and 4 'satellite' tornadoes that rotated around the main vortex at a distance of about a quarter of a mile. Hail 6 inches in diameter broke many windshields and did extensive damage to roofs in Pyote, TX. 5-inch hailstones fell from a supercell thunderstorm near Crawford, NE.
Shreveport LA eclipsed their annual average rainfall for the year as 45 inches of rain had fallen by this date. The normal for an average year is only 43.84 inches. This was the earliest date the average annual rainfall total had been surpassed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: Graduation ceremony was ready to commence when softball hail struck Howard College at Big Spring, TX. Skylights on the coliseum roof were shattered sending glass falling onto the floor that would have been filled with graduates just a few minutes later. A Boy Scout caravan of 5 vehicles was pummeled by 5 inch diameter hail. The hail knocked out every window in every vehicle. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: South and Central United States: More tornadoes, 412, strike the United States during this stretch than any other ten-day period since records began in 1950. A total of 42 storm-related deaths were reported. (Ref. WxDoctor)Three teenagers ran into a home near Argle, Iowa as an F2 tornado neared; two went to an interior bathroom, the other under stairs. The home was turned 120° and moved approximately 25 to 40 feet before being stopped by three large trees-which likely save teens from injury/death. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

2008: Picher, OK reeling from years of accumulated toxic slag, was dealt a death blow by an EF4 tornado which killed 6, hurt 150. The same storm killed 12 in MO’s Newton County, including a firefighter who was storm spotting, and 5 people on their way to a wedding.(Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2010: May Tornado Outbreak- On May 10, Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak since 1999, with 55 tornadoes, two of which were rated EF4. The tornadoes, which caused severe damage in the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City and near Norman, took 3 lies, injured 81 people, and caused $2 billion: in insured losses. . Ironically, both EF4 tornadoes struck Norman, Oklahoma, home of the Storm Prediction Center and the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Fourteen additional tornadoes hit Oklahoma during May 11-13. (Ref. Weatherwise U.S. Weather Highlights of 2010 page 4 and 6 )

2018: the hail storm that started at 1627 and ended at 1631. The largest hail was 0.5 inches and the smaller hail was about 0.3 inches. The hail came at rapid rate making the ground white in about 2 to 3 minutes and striped leaflets on the tomato plant and breaking he terminal growth bud and breaking a few compound leaves. This image was taken during the time it was hailing and the image appear foggy! (Ref. L. Koontz) (Ref. Video by L. Koontz)

[SACRUS]

Marine layer fog deck bunring off 

 

[psv88]

Sun finally breaking out. 63 and muggy 

[uofmiami]

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sun finally breaking out. 63 and muggy 

Muggy?  DP low to mid 50s 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Muggy?  DP low to mid 50s 

Dew is 60 here

[psv88]

[SACRUS]

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 76. Mostly cloudy now

[nycwinter]

started off cool this morning but once the sun broke through the clouds it got warm humid pretty fast.

[NEG NAO]

Summer is on the way

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Summer is on the way

next 4 days wont make it to 70..

[donsutherland1]

May 1-10 is finishing with a mean temperature of 58.8° in Central Park. That is 1.6° below normal.

Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tonight. Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. There remains a risk that the front could stall for a time. Friday could see temperatures return to the 70° or above should the front clear the region. It will turn warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. 

In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer.

The SOI was +1.86 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.109 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.