May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[Weather Will]

56 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Still plenty of time to reel monday in.

We are overdue for something to trend in the right direction...

[stormy]

Last May began very dry then turned quite wet and stayed wet until early August when rain stopped.

El Nino  suggests a possible reversal this year.

I expect exceptional drought labeling later this morning.

[stormy]

45 minutes ago, stormy said:

Last May began very dry then turned quite wet and stayed wet until early August when rain stopped.

El Nino  suggests a possible reversal this year.

I expect exceptional drought labeling later this morning.

Make that EXTREME DROUGHT

[Paleocene]

Still not looking great on eps and gets

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1.5-2" of rain for half the month isn't bad.. it's about average. 

pre-El Nino May's are nothing significant in the MA

[Eskimo Joe]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

1.5-2" of rain for half the month isn't bad.. it's about average. 

pre-El Nino May's are nothing significant in the MA

What about June?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

What about June?

0.15 correlation, if average is 4.00", that's 4.60"

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0.15 correlation, if average is 4.00", that's 4.60"

Appreciate the response and map! What month, if any, would average much above average precipitation so that we can put a real dent in this drought.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Appreciate the response and map! What month, if any, would average much above average precipitation so that we can put a real dent in this drought.

It's pretty close to average throughout the year - slight uptick in Nov and Dec to above avg. Nov-Feb of strongest El Nino's:

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty close to average throughout the year - slight uptick in Nov and Dec to above avg. Nov-Feb of strongest El Nino's:

Thank you again for the information.

[Interstate]

Looks like Saturday is slipping away from us too.

[stormy]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

Make that EXTREME DROUGHT

Yes, it is now EXTREME DROUGHT For Waynesboro.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO for late Sunday/Monday.

[CAPE]

Severe drought for pretty much all of MD except for the western highlands.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 hours ago, stormy said:

Last May began very dry then turned quite wet and stayed wet until early August when rain stopped.

El Nino  suggests a possible reversal this year.

I expect exceptional drought labeling later this morning.

So the fire hose is coming in the latter half of the month? 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So the fire hose is coming in the latter half of the month? 

I'm getting 2012 vibes...drought til June, then insane heat, a derecho event followed by Seattle rain for the latter half of the summer.  

[BlizzardNole]

Since there are 70-foot trees close to the west side of our house, we'll skip the derecho but take the rainy late summer and fall that El Nino advertises.  I gave up on the grass and will re-try in Sept.  (The builder did the hydroseeding right before the Jan 25 snowcrete storm.  I asked them to wait but it's a requirement for occupancy LOL)

[Eskimo Joe]

I'll be down in OC MD from May 26th - 30th for a conference. I realllly hope the weather cooperates this year. Seems like every year it's 43 degrees, fog, and a stiff wind off the ocean.

[Weather Will]

With the rain fizzling out this week (again); thought I'd share some maps from WB JB. WB CFSv2 (control) that even he acknowledges may be wishful thinking for the upcoming winter. If only....

Will keep these maps.  If I am understanding him correctly, JB thinks cooler water off Australia is critical for our chances of any East coast cold air this winter. I will be watching that factor.

[Benjamn3]

10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

With the rain fizzling out this week (again); thought I'd share some maps from WB JB. WB CFSv2 (control) that even he acknowledges may be wishful thinking for the upcoming winter. If only....

Will keep these maps.  If I am understanding him correctly, JB thinks cooler water off Australia is critical for our chances of any East coast cold air this winter. I will be watching that factor.

I honestly think JB does massive dab rips and just makes shit up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

With the rain fizzling out this week (again); thought I'd share some maps from WB JB. WB CFSv2 (control) that even he acknowledges may be wishful thinking for the upcoming winter. If only....

Will keep these maps.  If I am understanding him correctly, JB thinks cooler water off Australia is critical for our chances of any East coast cold air this winter. I will be watching that factor.

 

That CFS model runs 4x a day. To only find slightly below average temps in that is not a big accomplishment lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z EPS is quite warm around May 17-18 then above average for the 2nd half of the month

I'm getting hyped.  More fuel for storms.  This cool, dry, windy pattern is turning us into the Colorado Plateau.  We need more weather like what we're having today.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I'm getting hyped.  More fuel for storms.  This cool, dry, windy pattern is turning us into the Colorado Plateau.  We need more weather like what we're having today.

Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, progressing east, is our best Summer pattern for storms

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May

[Stormchaserchuck1]

384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge

[87storms]

Next weekend’s temps look very appealing. Hopefully the start of a new pattern that brings in the type of humidity that makes the mid Atlantic, the mid Atlantic.