May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is the severe threat for late Tuesday and Wednesday not worth mentioning?

Maybe a few rogue strong storms around later Tuesday. 

We'll see convection with the front on Wednesday but anything severe would be isolated and relatively brief. Would be more intriguing if lapse rates were a bit more respectable. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

New England forests (and wildlife) have made a remarkable comeback in the last 100 years.  Mass is now something like 65% forested.  I think it was down to 25% at one time

Someone who knows his stuff ∆

[weatherwiz]

Well I'm very curious to see how well NBMv5 performs. 

7z NBM for BDL has 99 for a high tomorrow (though highest 3-hr temp is 94) with a low of 73.

MAV is 92/67

MET is 91/68

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr

"10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes.  Minor competing signals there.

I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough.  It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating.   I bet 10 kts isn't enough?

Something like that.  

The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... 

the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT.

I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr

"10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes.  Minor competing signals there.

I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough.  It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating.   I bet 10 kts isn't enough?

Something like that.  

The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... 

the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT.

I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.  

Great point on this...strength of the flow certainly does factor in. 

Also, in this case as least that boundary is probably so shallow and weak that its just totally mixing out 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well I'm very curious to see how well NBMv5 performs. 

7z NBM for BDL has 99 for a high tomorrow (though highest 3-hr temp is 94) with a low of 73.

MAV is 92/67

MET is 91/68

 

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. 

The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance.   All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. 

The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance.   2 point bump out of respect of superb feedback heating, no less. 

Yeah I would not be shocked to see some heat advisories tossed out this afternoon 

[kdxken]

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Not really much of a signal yet, but if there’s a window for homebrew I think it’ll be early. Really hope I’m not hopping on a flight to chase a 45mph TS this season.  

[dendrite]

71.4° SCT skies

Beautiful day

[Torch Tiger]

37 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Yeah the overall look on LR - weeklies never looked particularly warm, last week for ex.  Talked about it then

[Torch Tiger]

It would be fun to see early season tropical activity.  Severe looks non-existent 

[CT Rain]

Wednesday's severe threat looks decent to me. 

Lapse rates are pretty good (6.5c/km) on the NAM and deep layer effective shear around 40 knots. Should be able to get a decent QLCS with some embedded supercells. 

I think the GFS is mixing out the boundary layer a bit too much. 

[weatherwiz]

The NAM is actually pretty interesting for Wednesday. Would suggest a threat for scattered damaging wind gusts, particularly south of the Pike. The NAM has a large area of steeper mid-level lapse rates overhead, shunting south during the day (hence south of the Pike favored). Not sure I totally buy this though...the NAM seems to have a tendency for having these areas of steeper lapse rates...but a big player in this is whether the airmass over the OV is convectively overturned tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Shear is pretty decent along with height falls and looks like we get enough heating to drive up the llvl lapse rates

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wednesday's severe threat looks decent to me. 

Lapse rates are pretty good (6.5c/km) on the NAM and deep layer effective shear around 40 knots. Should be able to get a decent QLCS with some embedded supercells. 

I think the GFS is mixing out the boundary layer a bit too much. 

Ninja'd 

was just commenting on the NAM/mlvl lapse rates. 

The NAM is definitely pretty intriguing. Would actually see a pretty solid line drift south and it occurrs during peak heating 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Wednesday's severe threat looks decent to me. 

Lapse rates are pretty good (6.5c/km) on the NAM and deep layer effective shear around 40 knots. Should be able to get a decent QLCS with some embedded supercells. 

I think the GFS is mixing out the boundary layer a bit too much. 

Fish says .. Nah

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

90 yesterday.  Currently 85.  Let's see if we can pull off another one here this afternoon.  Tuesday is a lock and Wednesday looks promising for 90 here.  A 4 day May heatwave would be sweet.  Hoping for a nice banger on Wednesday and then Stein gets his webbed hands into this weekend. Can't see how anyone would route for cool/wet on MDW, including ACATT. 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

I think we'll see widespread storms...should see a solid line evolve ahead of the front. Only question is whether damaging wind gust potential is rather isolated or more scattered

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Currently 82° at home and 84° in downtown Greenfield.
What a day, I may need to cut out of work early.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I thought Nam was decent too. I don’t think it’s widespread, but probably a couple of segments in the line that get strong. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Borderline big heat tomorrow. 

As expected ... headlines now flying.   Prooobably 94 to 95?   95+ is sort of the "unofficial"  "big heat" criteria.  But it probably really should go by the HI values.

[weatherwiz]

The RRFS is decent too, just a bit later with timing

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I thought Nam was decent too. I don’t think it’s widespread, but probably a couple of segments in the line that get strong. 

Nice timing too. Right around 18z plus more westerly flow in the BL vs onshore.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Borderline big heat tomorrow. 

As expected ... headlines now flying.   Prooobably 94 to 95?   95+ is sort of the "unofficial"  "big heat" criteria.  But it probably really should go by the HI values.

It’s ok to post “AWT”