May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is the severe threat for late Tuesday and Wednesday not worth mentioning?

Maybe a few rogue strong storms around later Tuesday. 

We'll see convection with the front on Wednesday but anything severe would be isolated and relatively brief. Would be more intriguing if lapse rates were a bit more respectable. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

New England forests (and wildlife) have made a remarkable comeback in the last 100 years.  Mass is now something like 65% forested.  I think it was down to 25% at one time

Someone who knows his stuff ∆

[weatherwiz]

Well I'm very curious to see how well NBMv5 performs. 

7z NBM for BDL has 99 for a high tomorrow (though highest 3-hr temp is 94) with a low of 73.

MAV is 92/67

MET is 91/68

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr

"10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes.  Minor competing signals there.

I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough.  It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating.   I bet 10 kts isn't enough?

Something like that.  

The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... 

the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT.

I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr

"10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes.  Minor competing signals there.

I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough.  It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating.   I bet 10 kts isn't enough?

Something like that.  

The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... 

the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT.

I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.  

Great point on this...strength of the flow certainly does factor in. 

Also, in this case as least that boundary is probably so shallow and weak that its just totally mixing out 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well I'm very curious to see how well NBMv5 performs. 

7z NBM for BDL has 99 for a high tomorrow (though highest 3-hr temp is 94) with a low of 73.

MAV is 92/67

MET is 91/68

 

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. 

The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance.   All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. 

The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance.   2 point bump out of respect of superb feedback heating, no less. 

Yeah I would not be shocked to see some heat advisories tossed out this afternoon