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May 2026 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Did they seem generous with credits or did you have to keep upgrading? 

I am paying 50 monthly. 5 dollars a month for all the domains. I dropped my pay sites so it isn't a problem. If anyone wants to donate they can but its free for all. I don't know a site that has all the features I have on the facing page with zero new pages opening to view data and will update as requested or if I want something else to add. Build your own super ensemble wether short or long term. 

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14 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Today’s Boston Globe has a good article about the May 1977 snowstorm.  
 

here’s the link, but I’m pretty sure it’s probably paywalled:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/05/09/metro/mothers-day-snow-storm-1977-ma/

Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch.

More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.

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Might be seeing the formulation of a heat wave in the D9-12 range.   Obviously, given that time range this is highly speculative... but it is speculation born of recent clad trends from both the index suggestions, and these operational versions.    More so the Euro and CMC, but at least ( shockingly so) the GFS is willing to let go of the winter anchoring curvature characterization of the hemisphere in lieu of more seasonally appropriate retreat of the polar jet.    Anyway, the polar indices are non-interfering, whist the PNA goes negative and once into deep May+ ... any time really, but that is am early warm departure signal.   

CMC is a Sonoran heat release, btw

Heat wave in the extended or not, there are really coherent seasonal changes occurring this week in the general tapestry of the guidance. It's always interesting to me to track these trigger weeks, year to year.  They come at different times.... some years earlier or later.  It's basically when blue line on the charts escape to deep Canada, and the gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights ( the other lines ;) ) slacken in gradient.   This next 60 or 72 hours could very well be the last of the frost risk trough incursions, Lakes to NE region..  

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