4/13 - 4/14 Severe Threat

[nvck]

figured it's probably due, almost a lock that someone in the sub's gonna see some action today or tomorrow. primarily hail/tornado risk.

[pen_artist]

Bit of an appetizer ahead of likely busy next few days

 Mesoscale Discussion 0395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Iowa into
   western...central...and northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131603Z - 131730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some hail (possibly over 1 inch in diameter) may occur
   with gradually intensifying storms over the next few hours. It is
   unclear if these storms will pose the greatest severe risk this
   afternoon, or if the greater risk will occur with later storms.

   DISCUSSION...850 mb troughing is underway across the Plains states
   into the Midwest, with 15Z mesoanalysis showing the northeasterly
   terminus of a LLJ currently positioned along the IA/IL/MO border.
   Here, an 850 mb Td gradient exists, with modest WAA likely
   supporting the gradual intensification of elevated convection within
   this regime. The 12Z ILX observed sounding and 15Z mesoanalysis
   depicts 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8-8.5 C/km range, contributing
   to MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. These storms are encroaching on a
   region of stronger 500 mb southwesterly flow, driven by a departing
   upper trough over the eastern U.S., which is resulting in 30-40 kt
   of effective bulk shear ahead of the storms. If storms continue to
   intensify, it is plausible that at a hail threat may materialize
   over the next few hours, with some stones potentially exceeding 1
   inch in diameter.

   Short-range high resolution ensemble guidance is providing mixed
   signals regarding the evolution of this convection. Some
   deterministic CAMS show that the ongoing storms eventually
   consolidate and develop into stronger supercell structures in
   northern IL by afternoon. Other guidance members depict the ongoing
   storms oscillating in intensity, while stronger storms develop
   later. As such, there is an appreciable degree of uncertainty as to
   the evolution of the longer term severe threat with these WAA
   storms. All this being said, convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40829153 41349115 41809076 42269021 42318942 42178872
               41918839 41478835 41028850 40608866 40238895 40058932
               39988999 40039043 40249121 40829153 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

[nvck]

Surprised that the D2 update at 1730z didn't introduce any sort of ENH in Michigan

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

the spc has 50 million types of hatching now, but somehow still couldn’t figure out how to put one across the area for hail today.

[nvck]

MD and then watch just issued pretty much back to back for IWX area 

[King James]

Pretty good storm. Lots of wind, continuous throughout the storm

[KeenerWx]

Thought today and tomorrow was gonna be miss north for anything exciting, but looks like a healthy storm about to run through.

[Chinook]

The tornado watch in Minnesota/Wisconsin and part of Iowa includes high chances of tornadoes and large hail (1")

[sbnwx85]

The storm moving into Rensselaer looks interesting.

[nvck]

What a time for the IWX radar to go down...

Quote

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
448 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 /348 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/

...KIWX Radar is Out of Service...

KIWX is currently out of service due to an unknown issue.
Technicans are in route to troubleshoot the problem. A return to
service time is not known. Alternate radar sites include LOT, 
IND, GRR, DTX, CLE and ILN.


$$

 

[sbnwx85]

Looks like the radar is back. Storms were loud but no hail. Some good gusts that knocked over all the trash cans on the street.

[cyclone77]

Nice tennis ball/baseball hailer south of Minneapolis this afternoon.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice tennis ball/baseball hailer south of Minneapolis this afternoon.  

At the airport dog park literally on the north end airport perimeter right off the runway 12L/30R threshold with a nice view of the miss south.  

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Mammatus clouds in the wake of a decaying severe thunderstorm here, hearing that pretty much everyone in seeing them tonight 

[Harry Perry]

Swing and a miss here on storms for this evening. Got the gust front and plummeting temps though. Hoping tomorrow evening works out for at least a storm. 

[frostfern]

4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Swing and a miss on storms for this evening. Got the gust front and plummeting temps though. Hoping tomorrow evening works out for at least a storm. 

Looks like another miss northwest stank for me tonight.

[thomp2mp]

Nice little cell in Livingston County looked impressive on radar approaching me, but now seems to be losing oomph. Bummer.

[Chinook]

My place near Toledo just had maybe 30 min+ of consistent lightning, heavy rain, 40mph wind gusts for a few minutes. I think I just missed half of Ryan Hall's tornado chasing stream just watching out the porch.

[Chinook]

confirmed tornado near Kansas City (Spring Hill KS)

[Chinook]

Confirmed tornado at Pleasanton, Missouri

[Torchageddon]

The most historic part of the night may be how there was a strong tornado (KC) in a spot that this morning didn't even have a general thunderstorm risk area!! I have no memory of this happening before.

[Chinook]

for tomorrow, SPC has put up a 10% tornado risk including northern Illinois and Chicago, and also 30% hail

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

The most historic part of the night may be how there was a strong tornado (KC) in a spot that this morning didn't even have a general thunderstorm risk area!! I have no memory of this happening before.

Definitely about as thread the needle as you can get. Fortunately, the bulk of the activity was just south of the densely populated suburbs in KC...

DFW has conditional setups like this all the time during severe weather season, but thus far, its cap of steel remains undefeated.

 

[laferri2]

Impressive light show in Traverse City. More lightning tonight than I might have seen in an entire season down in Macomb.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Enhanced risk expanded further east towards Detroit for wind and tornadoes ahead of the line while a cig 2 tornado risk has been introduced further west 

[sbnwx85]

Tornado, wind and hail upgrades for today:

[nvck]

Beautiful light show last night here, went and sat out in a field for ~90 minutes, with constant lightning 20-40 miles away, first from the cell that moved through Saginaw, and then new stuff that back built from it, probably off of outflow?

[Harry Perry]

20 minutes ago, nvck said:

Beautiful light show last night here, went and sat out in a field for ~90 minutes, with constant lightning 20-40 miles away, first from the cell that moved through Saginaw, and then new stuff that back built from it, probably off of outflow?

Yes from outflow boundaries as well as a strong low level jet pushing in from the southwest. 

[nvck]

Also, thinking they may go MDT with the 1630z update