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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most likely under .25"

Latest HRRR says a tenth of an inch or less for most of the area, and it appears that will be the case based on the way radar looks. Just light rain for a couple hours. Frustrating because we really need rain. 

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23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Freeze watch tomorrow night. Probably gonna get down to 31 or 30 here. Some people got fooled by the hot weather this week and planted tomato plants. Those people are going to be in trouble tomorrow night. 

Need a soaker but nothing in sight.  The big cooldown is 3 days then back into the mid to upper 60's and dry

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32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Freeze watch tomorrow night. Probably gonna get down to 31 or 30 here. Some people got fooled by the hot weather this week and planted tomato plants. Those people are going to be in trouble tomorrow night. 

As they should be...it is mid/late April not mid/late May.  Not to mention this "chill" was well advertised.  I wait until Memorial Day weekend up this way to do flowers and warmer weather veggies.

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35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Freeze watch tomorrow night. Probably gonna get down to 31 or 30 here. Some people got fooled by the hot weather this week and planted tomato plants. Those people are going to be in trouble tomorrow night. 

Rule here is never plant sensitive plants like tomatoes till May 15th..

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38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

As they should be...it is mid/late April not mid/late May.  Not to mention this "chill" was well advertised.  I wait until Memorial Day weekend up this way to do flowers and warmer weather veggies.

I usually plant the warmer weather vegetables during the first few days of May. By then it's usually safe here, but I know you're way up in NW Jersey where you can still get frost in early May. You're wise to wait until at least mid May up there. 

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41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I usually plant the warmer weather vegetables during the first few days of May. By then it's usually safe here, but I know you're way up in NW Jersey where you can still get frost in early May. You're wise to wait until at least mid May up there. 

I'm not no much worried about a frost or freeze once to like 5/10 up here but I have found if you wait a few more weeks beyond that the soils warm up and things just seem to do better.  Of course that varies from year to year with the actual weather conditions as to how fast the soils warm.  Have found with cool soils things just tend to "sit there" until it really warms up and with cool soils if we hit a wet stretch things have a higher chance of rotting out.

The cooler weather crops are a different story but I don't plant much of those these days.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Need a soaker but nothing in sight.  The big cooldown is 3 days then back into the mid to upper 60's and dry

Running out of time down here where we have synoptic larger systems that can bring much rain. In the summer odds are that most rain is inland with pop up storm activity. 

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A strong late-season cold shot lies ahead. The cold front that will usher in the unseasonably cool air is now moving across the region, bringing with it some light rain. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.33" or less.  

Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle 50s on on Monday and Tuesday in New York City. Tuesday morning will see the temperature fall into the middle or upper 30s in the Cit. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze.

No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +6.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.193 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

A strong late-season cold shot lies ahead. The cold front that will usher in the unseasonably cool air is now moving across the region, bringing with it some light rain. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.33" or less.  

Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle 50s on on Monday and Tuesday in New York City. Tuesday morning will see the temperature fall into the middle or upper 30s in the Cit. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze.

No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +6.20 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.193 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Your weekly ENSO tracking showing signs of the impending rapid rise i am sure you will be showing us in the coming weeks. Seems like many of us are excited about this Nino. 

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