Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,014
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ambrose jet starting to kick in. JFK down to 71 gusting to 26 out of the south. Should continue to increase.


.

Not terrible, temps still around 60 on the beaches and JFK 17mph. Looks like dodged a bullet today. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow and Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the middle and upper in most of the region. Records will likely be challenged tomorrow. 

Daily Records for April 15:

Albany: 86°, 2003
Bridgeport: 81°, 1960
Hartford: 88°, 1941
Islip: 78°, 2002, 2024
New York City-Central Park: 87°, 1941
New York City-JFK Airport: 80°, 1960, 2002, 2006
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86°, 1941
Newark: 88°, 1960
Philadelphia: 88°, 1941
White Plains: 83°, 1960

Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday.

Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. It will turn cooler on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week.

Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.45 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.087 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.6° (2.9° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

As much as I dislike the heat, its hard for me to consider this swamp ass weather with the dews relatively low when compared to what has become normal around here in the summer. 

Dews are in the mid to upper 50s so it's def not a dry heat but definitely no swamp weather 

Link to comment
Share on other sites


72 / 57 in the peak of the heat today / tomorrow with mid 80s to low 90s.  Friday still very warm but falls back to the upper 70s - low/ 80s.  Weekend is warm but clouds look to cap tems on Saturday and timing of the front sunday  / storms.  Cooler week near / below normal 4/20 - 4/28.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1960)
NYC: 87 (1941)
LGA: 86 (1941)
JFK: 80 (2006)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 25 (1943)
NYC: 27 (1943)
LGA: 28 (1943)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 


Historical:


 

1921 - Two mile high Silver Lake, CO, received 76 inches of snow in 24 hours, the heaviest 24 hour total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 inches in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum)

1927 - New Orleans LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1944: The maximum temperature for the date is 89°F. in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1949 - A hailstone five inches by five and a half inches in size, and weighing four pounds, was measured at Troy NY. (The Weather Channel)

1956: An F4 tornado passed along the western and northern fringes of Birmingham, AL during the afternoon. The twister killed 25 people along its 20 mile path. Most of the deaths occurred in the Stacey Hollow and McDonalds Chapel communities. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1958 - A tornado 300 yards in width skipped along a five mile path near Frostproof FL. A 2500 gallon water tank was found one mile from its original position (it is not known how much water was in the tank at the time). (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the Southern Atlantic Coast Region. A tornado killed one person and injured seven others near Mount Dora FL. Drifts of hail up to two feet deep were reported in Davidson and Rowan counties in North Carolina. Myrtle Beach SC was deluged with seven inches of rain in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Death Valley, CA, was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in 24 hours. Snow fell in the mountains of southern California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms soaked the eastern U.S. with heavy rain, pushing the rainfall total for the month at Cape Hatteras NC past their previous April record of 7.10 inches. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from west central Texas to west central Arkansas during the late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which caused more than half a million dollars damage at Fort Stockton TX, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Dennison TX, produced baseball size hail at Silo OK and near Capps Corner TX, and drenched southeastern Oklahoma with up to 4 inches of rain in two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: An F3 tornado hits downtown Nashville causing extensive damage but no loss of life. An additional 62 tornadoes touched down in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. These tornadoes caused 12 fatalities and approximately 120 injuries. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Nashville.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Picard said:

According to Mesonet, Manhattan only dropped to 71 overnight.  When is the last time that happened in April?

April 14th, 2023 had a low of 70 in Central Park

During the 2002 April heatwave the minimums were 74 and 76 on the 17th and 18th

These may be the only instances of 70+ mins in April for NYC

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, so far next week is looking ghastly. 

The STJ near the Baja is forecast to become more active with the developing El Niño. So it’s looking like more rainfall chances in late April.  But the individual storm details will probably have to wait.

IMG_6121.thumb.png.ebeebec4f16490d513c2bf118303bffa.png


IMG_6122.thumb.png.7fddb200491e5b8247e18ed64dae0ec6.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Wind just flipped to light south breeze in Brightwaters. Temp down 2, 80 might have been our peak high for the day 

Currently 78.7°F on my PWS, maxed at 80.7°F at 11:25 this morning. Sea breeze capped our temps but I'm glad we finally hit 80+. We've been missing out lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The STJ near the Baja is forecast to become more active with the developing El Niño. So it’s looking like more rainfall chances in late April.  But the individual storm details will probably have to wait.

IMG_6121.thumb.png.ebeebec4f16490d513c2bf118303bffa.png


IMG_6122.thumb.png.7fddb200491e5b8247e18ed64dae0ec6.png

Plus if we have a trough sitting in that location we’ll be socked in low clouds on east wind struggling to get to 50. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...