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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Yeah I have lots of memories of this time of year in Lb. At least it’s sunny. The worst days are zero vis fog and raw wind. Those days feel especially cold, meanwhile it’s 80 and sunny in NJ.


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I hated the Ambrose Jet afternoons where you'd see a pleasant Central Park in the 70s but 40s/low 50s and 40+ mph winds at home. At least here we usually get a couple more hours to warm up before the strong winds make it this far north. 

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Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region.  Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.

image.png.c73ecfa476b335ba538450f0be1be3da.png

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Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region.  Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.
image.png.c73ecfa476b335ba538450f0be1be3da.png

Wednesday looks like a moderate Ambrose jet day so highs will be early in the day on the island. Like you said if winds stay light we could make a run at 80 prior to the usual start around 1.
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Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -27.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR:  87 (2011)
NYC: 85 (1955)
LGA: 82 (1955)
JFK: 73 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 29 (1976)
NYC: 24 (1909)
LGA: 32 (1943)
JFK: 31 (2018)


Historical:

 

1935: Severe dust storms across Iowa and Kansas closed schools and highways. Dodge City, Kansas experienced its worst dust storm of record, with dense dust reported from the morning of the 9th until after sunset on the 11th. The sky was almost as dark as night at times during the daylight hours. The thick dust suspended traffic on highways and railroads and also suspended most business in town.  

1965 - Severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest spawned fifty-one tornadoes killing 256 persons and causing more than 200 million dollars damage. Indiana, Ohio and Michigan were hardest hit in the "Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak". (David Ludlum)

 

1979: This day was known as "Terrible Tuesday" to the residents of Wichita Falls, Texas as a tornado rated F4 on the Fujita scale ripped through the city. A massive F4 tornado smashed into Wichita Falls killing 43 persons and causing 300 million dollars in damage. Another tornado struck Vernon, Texas killing eleven persons.

1987 - Ten days of flooding in the northeastern U.S. finally came to an end. Damage from flooding due to rain and snow melt ran into the billions of dollars. The collapse of the New York State Thruway Bridge over Schoharie Creek claimed ten lives. (Storm Data)

1988 - Sixteen cities in the western U.S., nine in California, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 95 degrees at Sacramento CA and 96 degrees at Bakersfield CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-four cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 25 degrees at Conway AR, 29 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth TX, and 22 degrees at Ozark AR, were April records. Lows of 26 degrees at Hot Springs AR and 31 degrees at Shreveport LA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - While showers produced heavy rain over much of the northeastern U.S., heavy snow blanketed northern Maine, with 13 inches reported at Telos Lake. Strong southwesterly winds accompanying the rain and snow gusted to 68 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. Rainfall totals of 1.04 inch at Pittsburgh PA and 1.52 inch at Buffalo NY on the 10th were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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12 hours ago, steve392 said:

These winds are beyond aggravating. 

Yesterday's winds were so bad that I lasted only two innings at my grandson's HS baseball game in Stroudsburg. They were cold, and blowing from left field to right field and right into my face. 

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38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The signal for record heat in the Mid-Atlantic into the New York City area on Wednesday has increased. The latest ECMWF EFI guidance:

image.png.6af832f7a96498dfddbede6ee3c9bd7c.png

Developing El Niños in April have pretty reliably resulted in near to record highs over 90° around the area like we most recently experienced in mid-April 2023. 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2026-04-11 Developing El Niños bolded

Highest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

4/1 82 in 1978 81 in 2026 80 in 2016
4/2 83 in 1967 80 in 1963 78 in 1946
4/3 81 in 1967 80 in 1981 77 in 2002
4/4 82 in 1950 79 in 1974 78 in 2010
4/5 83 in 1985 81 in 2010 75 in 1974
4/6 83 in 2023 80 in 1947 77 in 2010+
4/7 92 in 2010 85 in 1991 84 in 1942
4/8 88 in 1991 84 in 2010 84 in 1959
4/9 85 in 2013 84 in 1991 78 in 1970
4/10 82 in 2017 82 in 1955 77 in 2008
4/11 87 in 2011 84 in 2017 84 in 1955
4/12 90 in 1977 87 in 2023 82 in 1996
4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+
4/14 93 in 2023 88 in 2022 88 in 1941
4/15 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 85 in 1949
4/16 92 in 2002 88 in 2012 88 in 2003
4/17 97 in 2002 88 in 1976 83 in 1941
4/18 93 in 2002 93 in 1976 85 in 1964
4/19 92 in 1976 91 in 2002 89 in 1985
4/20 91 in 1941 88 in 2005 85 in 1938
4/21 88 in 1957 84 in 1985 84 in 1936
4/22 87 in 1985 86 in 2001 86 in 1973+
4/23 88 in 1996 86 in 2007 82 in 1990+
4/24 87 in 2001 84 in 2011 83 in 1994
4/25 91 in 1960 90 in 2009 87 in 1939
4/26 93 in 2009 85 in 2011 83 in 1985
4/27 94 in 1990 92 in 1994 90 in 1962
4/28 90 in 2009 90 in 1990 89 in 2021+
4/29 91 in 1974 86 in 2024 86 in 2017+
4/30 91 in 1942 87 in 1985 85 in 1941
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Developing El Niños in April have pretty reliably resulted in near to record highs over 90° around the area like we most recently experienced in mid-April 2023. 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2026-04-11 Developing El Niños bolded

Highest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

4/1 82 in 1978 81 in 2026 80 in 2016
4/2 83 in 1967 80 in 1963 78 in 1946
4/3 81 in 1967 80 in 1981 77 in 2002
4/4 82 in 1950 79 in 1974 78 in 2010
4/5 83 in 1985 81 in 2010 75 in 1974
4/6 83 in 2023 80 in 1947 77 in 2010+
4/7 92 in 2010 85 in 1991 84 in 1942
4/8 88 in 1991 84 in 2010 84 in 1959
4/9 85 in 2013 84 in 1991 78 in 1970
4/10 82 in 2017 82 in 1955 77 in 2008
4/11 87 in 2011 84 in 2017 84 in 1955
4/12 90 in 1977 87 in 2023 82 in 1996
4/13 92 in 2023 86 in 1977 84 in 2018+
4/14 93 in 2023 88 in 2022 88 in 1941
4/15 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 85 in 1949
4/16 92 in 2002 88 in 2012 88 in 2003
4/17 97 in 2002 88 in 1976 83 in 1941
4/18 93 in 2002 93 in 1976 85 in 1964
4/19 92 in 1976 91 in 2002 89 in 1985
4/20 91 in 1941 88 in 2005 85 in 1938
4/21 88 in 1957 84 in 1985 84 in 1936
4/22 87 in 1985 86 in 2001 86 in 1973+
4/23 88 in 1996 86 in 2007 82 in 1990+
4/24 87 in 2001 84 in 2011 83 in 1994
4/25 91 in 1960 90 in 2009 87 in 1939
4/26 93 in 2009 85 in 2011 83 in 1985
4/27 94 in 1990 92 in 1994 90 in 1962
4/28 90 in 2009 90 in 1990 89 in 2021+
4/29 91 in 1974 86 in 2024 86 in 2017+
4/30 91 in 1942 87 in 1985 85 in 1941

Great observation. 

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