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8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Yeah I have lots of memories of this time of year in Lb. At least it’s sunny. The worst days are zero vis fog and raw wind. Those days feel especially cold, meanwhile it’s 80 and sunny in NJ.


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I hated the Ambrose Jet afternoons where you'd see a pleasant Central Park in the 70s but 40s/low 50s and 40+ mph winds at home. At least here we usually get a couple more hours to warm up before the strong winds make it this far north. 

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Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region.  Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.

image.png.c73ecfa476b335ba538450f0be1be3da.png

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Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region.  Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.
image.png.c73ecfa476b335ba538450f0be1be3da.png

Wednesday looks like a moderate Ambrose jet day so highs will be early in the day on the island. Like you said if winds stay light we could make a run at 80 prior to the usual start around 1.
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Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -27.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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