Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Warm & rainy

Mid Atlantic winter

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Mid Atlantic winter

[MJO812]

JB and Judah Cohen duo

[dendrite]

JB is resorting to AI now to try and explain atmospheric physics?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/17/2026 at 7:37 PM, JACKASS said:

Well, this thread died a quick death.

A lot of us have been in the main ENSO thread.

[MJOatleast7]

Finally a recurve! Big one too - 180 mph Supertyphoon Champi

[8611Blizz]

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/dee34050-062a-48f7-9fec-23a384039518

[CoastalWx]

Webber  cancelling baby. 
 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2112886732030886077?s=46

[forkyfork]

On 10/20/2026 at 8:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A lot of us have been in the main ENSO thread.

unfortunately

[forkyfork]

On 10/19/2026 at 3:43 PM, dendrite said:

Warm & rainy

the epac is warmer than the wpac. that's outrageous 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://www.easternmassweather.net/2026/10/el-nino-grows-historically-powerful.html
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

unfortunately

I really don't understand why you are constantly such an a$$hole...my god, is your existence that meager and unfulfilling? Christ, I'd have swallowed a wet spark-plug by now if I were in your state of mind.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't understand why you are constantly such an a$$hole...my god, is your existence that meager and unfulfilling? Christ, I'd have swallowed a wet spark-plug by now if I were in your state of mind.

Absolutely.  Guy is unreal.  Hard to believe a guy can be that miserable.  I absolutely abhor when he posts in our New England forum.  Please, just stay in the NYC forum so we don’t have to see any of his trash.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  Guy is unreal.  Hard to believe a guy can be that miserable.  I absolutely abhor when he posts in our New England forum.  Please, just stay in the NYC forum so we don’t have to see any of his trash.  

I get it...we all have some degree of dissatisfaction with our lives, but it's not my fault you failed to thrive in the field that you supposedly love, and eat tacos by yourself in a closet on Xmas eve....either see a &ucking shrink, or get lost.

[forkyfork]

christmas closet tacos are a treasured family tradition, tyvm

[Go Kart Mozart]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd have swallowed a wet spark-plug by now if I were in your state of mind.

I am not sure what this means, but it is effing hilarious nonetheless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

christmas closet tacos are a treasured family tradition, tyvm

The sad realty is that snow is all I have in this area in terms of meteorology....if we ever get a real tropical threat, Id be all over it every bit as much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am not sure what this means, but it is effing hilarious nonetheless.

I'm not sure either, I just went with it.....mayeb he'll be brave enough to try and let us know if he survives.

[George001]

13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely.  Guy is unreal.  Hard to believe a guy can be that miserable.  I absolutely abhor when he posts in our New England forum.  Please, just stay in the NYC forum so we don’t have to see any of his trash.  

I don’t have anything against him personally but I do think Forky needs a break. I don’t entirely disagree with his views on this upcoming winter, but his thinking has gotten way too inflexible. Cognitive rigidity impedes creativity and it narrows your world.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t have anything against him personally but I do think Forky needs a break. I don’t entirely disagree with his views on this upcoming winter, but his thinking has gotten way too inflexible. Cognitive rigidity impedes creativity and it narrows your world.

His ideas on this winter, and every winter are exactly the same…so save yourself the time, and skip it. 

[WinterWolf]

13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am not sure what this means, but it is effing hilarious nonetheless.

I was thinking the whole electric/spark, and water being a conductor thing…should do the job of damaging a life form somewhat..? 

[Snowcrazed71]

I really like this guy! He doesn't hype, but comes up with some great reasons/research of why a pattern can help predict upcoming events.

 

Eurasian SNOW COVER SURGING — ANOTHER PIECE OF THE WINTER PUZZLE FALLING INTO PLACE.

Northeast Weather Alert

30 minutes ago

3 min read

 

Rated 0 out of 5 stars.No ratings yet

 

The slow start to Eurasian snow-cover expansion is officially behind us, and the latest developments are becoming increasingly interesting as we approach November.

 

 

 

Many of you who followed my discussions last winter will remember the attention I gave to Eurasian snow cover and its potential influence on the larger Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

 

 

 

Well, we're beginning to see some noteworthy developments once again.

 

The latest NOAA observations show a sharp acceleration in Eurasian snow-cover expansion during the second half of October. More importantly, both the ECMWF operational model and its ensemble guidance support continued above-normal expansion through the remainder of the month.

 

 

 

WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING

 

Between October 16 and October 20, observed Eurasian snow cover increased dramatically, climbing from approximately 2.7 million square kilometers to nearly 4.9 million square kilometers across the monitored region.

 

Looking toward October 31, the ECMWF projections indicate:

 

• ECMWF Ensemble Mean: Approximately 6.62 million km².

• ECMWF Operational: Approximately 7.03 million km².

• Snow Advance Index: Both projections indicate faster expansion than the historical October average.

 

 

 

This is a substantial turnaround from the relatively sluggish expansion we witnessed earlier in the month.

 

 

 

And this is exactly the type of development I pay attention to when evaluating the potential evolution of our winter pattern.

 

 

 

WHY EURASIAN SNOW COVER MATTERS

 

There is an important atmospheric relationship worth understanding here.

 

When snow cover expands rapidly across Eurasia, particularly Siberia, it can promote stronger surface cooling and support the development of an extensive Siberian high-pressure system. Under favorable conditions, this can influence planetary-wave activity, allowing more atmospheric energy to propagate upward into the stratosphere.

 

 

 

That interaction can contribute to disturbances of the stratospheric polar vortex, potentially increasing the likelihood of a weaker vortex and a more negative Arctic Oscillation.

 

The relationship isn't automatic, nor does every year with rapid Eurasian snow expansion produce the same winter outcome. Nevertheless, it's an important part of the larger hemispheric circulation that I continue to monitor.

 

 

 

WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR THE NORTHEAST

 

Here's where my interest continues to grow.

 

 

 

I've been discussing the possibility of a colder second half of winter, particularly from mid-January through March, and the latest Eurasian snow-cover developments are another potentially supportive signal. When combined with the evolving Pacific circulation, QBO, potential high-latitude blocking, and signs of increasing stress on the polar vortex, I see a developing atmospheric picture that deserves serious consideration.

 

 

 

I continue to lean toward a colder second-half winter pattern across New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey than some of the prevailing seasonal projections suggest.

 

 

 

My interest is not limited to brief Arctic outbreaks. I'm watching the possibility of a more sustained pattern featuring eastern North American troughing, stronger high-latitude blocking, and an increased frequency of cold-air intrusions.

 

 

 

Such a pattern could also create more favorable opportunities for winter storm development, provided the necessary moisture and storm tracks cooperate.

 

The rapid expansion of Eurasian snow cover doesn't guarantee those outcomes, but it provides another piece of information as we assess how the atmosphere may evolve.

 

 

 

MY OVERALL THINKING

 

What catches my attention is not one isolated atmospheric signal, but the possibility that several different drivers may begin working together as winter progresses.

 

The Eurasian snow-cover expansion, evolving stratospheric circulation, Pacific pattern, and potential changes in the AO and NAO could eventually favor a considerably different weather regime across eastern North America.

 

 

 

I remain comfortable with my thinking of a relatively milder first half of winter, followed by a meaningful transition toward colder conditions during the second half.

 

 

 

And with what I'm currently seeing, my interest in that colder scenario continues to grow.

 

The next several weeks will be important as we determine whether the developing Eurasian snow-cover pattern is followed by corresponding changes in Siberian high pressure, planetary-wave activity, and the stratospheric polar vortex.

 

 

 

My bottom line: The Eurasian snow-cover signal is becoming increasingly impressive, and it's another reason I'm keeping a colder and potentially more active second half of winter firmly in my forecast thinking for the Northeast.

 

 

 

There is much more to examine as these atmospheric features continue evolving.

 

I'll bring these signals together in my final 2026–2027 Winter Outlook on November 15, where I'll explain how I believe the larger pattern could unfold across our region.

 

 

 

Northeast Weather AlertPattern

[Typhoon Tip]

"Snow Advance Index"

...interesting... never heard of that particular index.  Is that his? - guess I'll look it up

If it exists it'll be interesting to know what goes into it.  Like is it 2ndarily based upon the AO ... +AO is the cold index state in the Arctic domain... whereas the negative phase is actually warm at high latitudes.   

I've long suspected this season may observe an aggressive recovery take place at some point along the way...  perhaps both land snow and sea ice for that matter ... The AO has been demonstratively positive really since the end of summer.

Meanwhile, the ongoing prognostics from CPC keep correcting outlooks positive so  ...it appears to be a really basal/systemic aspect and not just a ephemeral mode tendency...

Having said all that... I think there's been papered work published in recency that upended the Siberian snow cover assumption - perhaps not entirely but lowers confidence in using that metric as a predictor.   I'll have to see if that's true still. It was originally studied that cold/cryospheric genesis, aids in colder lower troposphere, which then lowers heights - and that raises hgt at mid levels due to restoring in the total column.  That

 

 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"Snow Advance Index"

...interesting... never heard of that particular index.  Is that his? - guess I'll look it up

If it exists it'll be interesting to know what goes into it.  Like is it 2ndarily based upon the AO ... +AO is the cold index state in the Arctic domain... whereas the negative phase is actually warm at high latitudes.   

I've long suspected this season may observe an aggressive recovery take place at some point along the way...  perhaps both land snow and sea ice for that matter ... The AO has been demonstratively positive really since the end of summer.

Meanwhile, the ongoing prognostics from CPC keep correcting outlooks positive so  ...it appears to be a really basal/systemic aspect and not just a ephemeral mode tendency...

Having said all that... I think there's been papered work published in recency that upended the Siberian snow cover assumption - perhaps not entirely but lowers confidence in using that metric as a predictor.   I'll have to see if that's true still

 

 

That is Judah’s claim to fame

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That is Judah’s claim to fame

Ah... well, if he's gotten it accepted by whatever peer reviewal process is required for operational/official usage than it is what it is...  but who knows -

Personally I have a handful indexes that are Johnisms  haha

[forkyfork]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The sad realty is that snow is all I have 

fyp

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I really like this guy! He doesn't hype, but comes up with some great reasons/research of why a pattern can help predict upcoming events.

 

Eurasian SNOW COVER SURGING — ANOTHER PIECE OF THE WINTER PUZZLE FALLING INTO PLACE.

Northeast Weather Alert

30 minutes ago

3 min read

 

Rated 0 out of 5 stars.No ratings yet

 

The slow start to Eurasian snow-cover expansion is officially behind us, and the latest developments are becoming increasingly interesting as we approach November.

 

 

 

Many of you who followed my discussions last winter will remember the attention I gave to Eurasian snow cover and its potential influence on the larger Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

 

 

 

Well, we're beginning to see some noteworthy developments once again.

 

The latest NOAA observations show a sharp acceleration in Eurasian snow-cover expansion during the second half of October. More importantly, both the ECMWF operational model and its ensemble guidance support continued above-normal expansion through the remainder of the month.

 

 

 

WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING

 

Between October 16 and October 20, observed Eurasian snow cover increased dramatically, climbing from approximately 2.7 million square kilometers to nearly 4.9 million square kilometers across the monitored region.

 

Looking toward October 31, the ECMWF projections indicate:

 

• ECMWF Ensemble Mean: Approximately 6.62 million km².

• ECMWF Operational: Approximately 7.03 million km².

• Snow Advance Index: Both projections indicate faster expansion than the historical October average.

 

 

 

This is a substantial turnaround from the relatively sluggish expansion we witnessed earlier in the month.

 

 

 

And this is exactly the type of development I pay attention to when evaluating the potential evolution of our winter pattern.

 

 

 

WHY EURASIAN SNOW COVER MATTERS

 

There is an important atmospheric relationship worth understanding here.

 

When snow cover expands rapidly across Eurasia, particularly Siberia, it can promote stronger surface cooling and support the development of an extensive Siberian high-pressure system. Under favorable conditions, this can influence planetary-wave activity, allowing more atmospheric energy to propagate upward into the stratosphere.

 

 

 

That interaction can contribute to disturbances of the stratospheric polar vortex, potentially increasing the likelihood of a weaker vortex and a more negative Arctic Oscillation.

 

The relationship isn't automatic, nor does every year with rapid Eurasian snow expansion produce the same winter outcome. Nevertheless, it's an important part of the larger hemispheric circulation that I continue to monitor.

 

 

 

WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR THE NORTHEAST

 

Here's where my interest continues to grow.

 

 

 

I've been discussing the possibility of a colder second half of winter, particularly from mid-January through March, and the latest Eurasian snow-cover developments are another potentially supportive signal. When combined with the evolving Pacific circulation, QBO, potential high-latitude blocking, and signs of increasing stress on the polar vortex, I see a developing atmospheric picture that deserves serious consideration.

 

 

 

I continue to lean toward a colder second-half winter pattern across New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey than some of the prevailing seasonal projections suggest.

 

 

 

My interest is not limited to brief Arctic outbreaks. I'm watching the possibility of a more sustained pattern featuring eastern North American troughing, stronger high-latitude blocking, and an increased frequency of cold-air intrusions.

 

 

 

Such a pattern could also create more favorable opportunities for winter storm development, provided the necessary moisture and storm tracks cooperate.

 

The rapid expansion of Eurasian snow cover doesn't guarantee those outcomes, but it provides another piece of information as we assess how the atmosphere may evolve.

 

 

 

MY OVERALL THINKING

 

What catches my attention is not one isolated atmospheric signal, but the possibility that several different drivers may begin working together as winter progresses.

 

The Eurasian snow-cover expansion, evolving stratospheric circulation, Pacific pattern, and potential changes in the AO and NAO could eventually favor a considerably different weather regime across eastern North America.

 

 

 

I remain comfortable with my thinking of a relatively milder first half of winter, followed by a meaningful transition toward colder conditions during the second half.

 

 

 

And with what I'm currently seeing, my interest in that colder scenario continues to grow.

 

The next several weeks will be important as we determine whether the developing Eurasian snow-cover pattern is followed by corresponding changes in Siberian high pressure, planetary-wave activity, and the stratospheric polar vortex.

 

 

 

My bottom line: The Eurasian snow-cover signal is becoming increasingly impressive, and it's another reason I'm keeping a colder and potentially more active second half of winter firmly in my forecast thinking for the Northeast.

 

 

 

There is much more to examine as these atmospheric features continue evolving.

 

I'll bring these signals together in my final 2026–2027 Winter Outlook on November 15, where I'll explain how I believe the larger pattern could unfold across our region.

 

 

 

Northeast Weather AlertPattern

Dude is click bait

[CoastalWx]

The whole prostate massage to 10mb right now looks to be just that. It appears nobody is expecting anything significant from it.

[weatherwiz]

these climate model seasonal snow maps are a joke. what a waste of space and resources