Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

JAMSTEC OCT update

DJF 2m Temp

DJF Precip

I'm convinced their EMI product is garbage this season....it's been trying to flip this into a central-based event since last summer, along with the CANSIPS, and they both just continue can-kicking.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The models are hinting at a block-fest (as depicted on this map) coming our way.

Is this typical for a super El Nino fall? Aren't big Ninos usually drag-strip zonal?

 

[Prismshine Productions]

The models are hinting at a block-fest (as depicted on this map) coming our way.
Is this typical for a super El Nino fall? Aren't big Ninos usually drag-strip zonal?
 

Yep

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[bristolri_wx]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is this copyright protected?

 

[MJO812]

Not your typical strong El Nino

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

Don’t you have a baby to feed?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t you have a baby to feed?

He actually calls his baby Niño. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The models are hinting at a block-fest (as depicted on this map) coming our way.

Is this typical for a super El Nino fall? Aren't big Ninos usually drag-strip zonal?

 

2006 had a huge October NAO block, and then the winter sucked rectal-cheese.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t you have a baby to feed?

I did and then went on my phone in bed to see the models.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I did and then went on my phone in bed to see the models.

Any nudity under covers ?

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any nudity under covers ?

Not yet. Maybe early next year will be baby number 2.

[rclab]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any nudity under covers ?

I finally figured out your screen name. As always ……

[Prismshine Productions]

So the Euro actually is around avg for the important part of winter but loses ground in April to show the negative anomaly

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[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So the Euro actually is around avg for the important part but lose ground in April to show the negative anomaly

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I would RUN with that look.

[Prismshine Productions]

I would RUN with that look.

Why run?

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[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Why run?

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I think interior would do well with lows running along the cape or I-84, sorry, SNE. The BN over part of NY is probably most due to less LES.

[MJO812]

Accuweathers snowfall predictions 

[Prismshine Productions]

Accuweathers snowfall predictions 

Fuck Inaccuweather

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[cleetussnow]

So if NY gets like 16 inches, then they would average the average over the last 2 winters.  Checks out.  

[Typhoon Tip]

At some point a heating climate change has got mean less snow guys
Time to eat shit and suck on reality  snow does not like warm air if we need to put it in really easy terms

It’s especially uneasy for snow if it’s in concurrence with something like a super El Niño. Synergy quotient is both unknown and off the charts.

Granted, this latter aspect is sort of uncharted water so we can’t be certain, but from a step back philosophical perspective, you’re talking about a warm state of affairs. And it so kind of follows intuitively that we might be more fucked than not. 

Just trying to be fair to the reality we’re in

There is a pathway to getting more snow based in the fact that we have a negative PDO coupled state in the northern Pacific  ; the incongruence between that index mode, and this particular El Niño open some dialogue of intrigue.  But in a former forecast framework AccuWeather can’t really go on that.  I’d haven’t read their tech discussion; for all we know they could have mentioned a caveat or two in there.

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At some point a heating climate change has got mean less snow guys
Time to eat shit and suck on reality  snow does not like warm air if we need to put it in really easy terms

It’s especially uneasy for snow if it’s in concurrence with something like a super El Niño. Synergy quotient is both unknown and off the charts.

Granted, this latter aspect is sort of uncharted water so we can’t be certain, but from a step back philosophical perspective, you’re talking about a warm state of affairs. And it so kind of follows intuitively that we might be more fucked than not. 

Just trying to be fair to the reality we’re in

There is a pathway to getting more snow based in the fact that we have a negative PDO coupled state in the northern Pacific  ; the incongruence between that index mode, and this particular El Niño open some dialogue of intrigue.  But in a former forecast framework AccuWeather can’t really go on that.  I’d haven’t read their tech discussion; for all we know they could have mentioned a caveat or two in there.

Well below normal is the most likely outcome. One huge storm that lines up with blocking and delivers near normal seasonal snow for people south of boston is the second most likely outcome. The ski resorts will likely have a ratter winter with tons of rain outs and bare runs off the sides of the trails. We were kinda due for that, with how good the last two winters were over the interior.

[Michael05192016]

On 10/14/2026 at 6:40 AM, CoastalWx said:

Don’t you have a baby to feed?

Gerber or Beechnut?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Michael05192016 said:

Gerber or Beechnut?

Beechnut