3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[TSSN+]

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

[pazzo83]

53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh so jumping ship over the HRRR isn’t just limited to winter storms? 

if there is an opportunity to call bust or jump ship, we will do it!

[pazzo83]

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Any earlier day stuff always saps  the strength of the later day stuff around DC.  If this is one line only later afternoon then it’s bad here.  60mph gusts+ 50/50 

yep - we have seen this movie many times.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

Look out for the heavy showers! 

[DSF]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

I also wonder if the fact that most schools likely haven't done their tornado drill for this year played into the decisions at all.

Still the safest call either way, but I thought about that earlier today.  We haven't done ours yet.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Look out for the heavy showers! 

Take shelter!

[adelphi_sky]

DC schools just caved. Early dismissal. 

[TSSN+]

Kids get off early for probably nothing. Even better than a busted snow/ice that turns out to be rain haha 

[wasnow215]

42 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Arw/Arw2 0z runs pretty much duds. Would be a marginal risk at best with those looks. Welp guess we will see what the morning brings. 

Never even heard of those models

[AmericanWxFreak]

Will be interesting to see what SPC does with this shift in guidance

[mattie g]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Kids get off early for probably nothing. Even better than a busted snow/ice that turns out to be rain haha 

Let me ask you a question. If you’re an administrator in a local school district, would you keep the kids in school or would you send them home early? Think long and hard about what the outcomes of these decisions could be and the risk in making one decision or the other, as well as the benefits and drawbacks of both.

[Warm Nose]

If we can fail, we will. 
 

We never seem to learn the lesson though. 

[wasnow215]

Kids will be fine -they've missed plenty of time in years past for much dumber reasons. Sounds like a lot of you are thinking you drop back to enhanced. 

[AlexD1990]

So is the convection firing tonight unexpected or no?

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Let me ask you a question. If you’re an administrator in a local school district, would you keep the kids in school or would you send them home early? Think long and hard about what the outcomes of these decisions could be and the risk in making one decision or the other, as well as the benefits and drawbacks of both.

Cancel-one day is meaningless even if ONE life is saved. Missed multiple days for cold weather and the obvious long term virtual "learning" in years past. So many young adults STILL struggling bc of that.

[Amped]

They just do school remotely whenever there's the slightest threat. Its been that way since the pandemic.

[Amped]

24 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

If we can fail, we will. 
 

We never seem to learn the lesson though. 

Its another 50mph squall line. Thats what we get in this region.