2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[codfishsnowman]

On 9/4/2026 at 3:31 PM, Amped said:

This season might be a total loss. No canes yet and I don't see any potential in the foreseeable future.

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

[vortex95]

23 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

Not to have a NS form Sep 1-10 is rather rather (peak climo time for the Atlantic).  Yes, technically on Z time Edouard formed in Sep  (01/00z), but that doesn't say much as to how atypically quiet it is.  Not to even have an invest or something outlooked in 7 days in the Atlantic speaks volumes right now!

There is value in such a quiet season scientifically.  We are in uncharted waters, at least in the data rich/satellite era, for El Nino, so what are we seeing that we have not seen before?  Record high MDR wind shear for one, but what else will come out of this season?  For instance, was the AEJ impacted?  Walker Circulation?  Hadley Cell?  All these impact TC formation and maintenance.  It seem like Saharan dust outbreaks are not a huge factor this year, unlike last.  Why?  Is it b/c of the strong westerly wind shear in the MDR?  Can you have a season when both are strong and work in tandem to make conditions even more hostile and get something like 1914 (only one TS the entire season?) or 1907 (5 storms but no hurricanes)?  Yes, limited data from these  time periods make comparisons to the modern age tough, but to know the absolute limits/extremes (at both ends) is a high value.  2005 and 2020 showed one end of the spectrum.  Also, 1933 b/c it still has the most ACE for a season on record.

[WxWatcher007]

I still think there will be life in the Atlantic eventually. But it’s going to be a while and the windows will be narrow—geographically and time wise. 

[GaWx]

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

[vortex95]

Another "dud season" record.  4.4 ACE units through 9/6 for the Atlantic is the lowest season-to-date ACE in the satellite era, and prior, going back to 1941.

Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is mostly too low.
 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats!

 However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct:

1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep
-H TX late Sep
-TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep
-H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct
-TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct

2) 1929:
-MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep

3) 1914: 
-TS FL/GA border mid Sep

4) 1905:
-TS Belize/LA late Sep
-TS W Haiti early Oct
-TS LA early Oct

5) 1904: 
-H upper SC mid Sep
-TS Belize early Oct
-H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct
-TS FL Pan early Nov

6) 1876:
-H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep
-TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct
-H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct

 These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

That's good historical info.  The only item I would as in, is "how strong was El Nino in those years?" Strength of El Nino can be a big factor.  And the presence of El Nino is not always a "slam dunk."  The type of El Nino is important.  Modoki El Nino, which has the highest SST anomalies in cntrl tropical Pacific rather than the ern, that can lead to an epic season, like 2004!

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino.  The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer.

See here:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I look at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer.  Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case.

So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino?  It might make no difference overall, but what about on more regional levels?  And I am not just talking about Atlantic TCs later season, but other things like the upcoming winter for the CONUS?  Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted?  How that sets up or its phase in a given winter has big implications for NAMR!

[NorthHillsWx]

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

No

https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2096760579553673552?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[Windspeed]

The strengthening Azores SPHP is only going to exacerbate vertical shear with an increased low-level easterly jet as mid-to-upper westerly rivers are still firmly planted from central America across the Atlantic tropics, MDR and sub-tropics. That combined with SAL should get us to the new record on September 12th for the latest hurricane in the satellite era. Of course, we might extend that record for a while based on the look of long-range modeling.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The strengthening Azores SPHP is only going to exacerbate vertical shear with an increased low-level easterly jet as mid-to-upper westerly rivers are still firmly planted from central America across the Atlantic tropics, MDR and sub-tropics. That combined with SAL should get us to the new record on September 12th for the latest hurricane in the satellite era. Of course, we might extend that record for a while based on the look of long-range modeling.

I still think the best chance of anything more then a sheared mess comes out of the subtropics late sept into oct. likely starting a subtropical system and taking advantage of above normal water temps. The Mdr is toast.


.

[Winter Wizard]

On 9/3/2026 at 9:58 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Going to be nearly impossible to get anything that tries to spin up in the eastern tropical Atlantic to make it far. Just an incredible ribbon of shear across the MDR. It’s extraordinary how hostile the basin is. 

But what's interesting about this graph is it shows closer to home, the Gulf and the Atlantic, have been less hostile with subdued wind shear. Not to mention SSTs are an inferno. I certainly don't see anything on the horizon anytime soon, but that's another piece of data that suggests if something does take off this year, it will likely be closer to home. I think Edouard was a warning shot in that regard considering how close it was to becoming a hurricane in the runup to landfall. We very well may come out unscathed, but I think it's a mistake for people to write off the season entirely at this point. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If we end up with little or no major hurricane activity this season we are priming the basin for next season. Without the upwelling caused by stronger hurricanes. OHC will continue to accumulate. With a Nina likely next year 27 could be the polar opposite of this season.


.

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

But what's interesting about this graph is it shows closer to home, the Gulf and the Atlantic, have been less hostile with subdued wind shear. Not to mention SSTs are an inferno. I certainly don't see anything on the horizon anytime soon, but that's another piece of data that suggests if something does take off this year, it will likely be closer to home. I think Edouard was a warning shot in that regard considering how close it was to becoming a hurricane in the runup to landfall. We very well may come out unscathed, but I think it's a mistake for people to write off the season entirely at this point. 

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. 

I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

[GaWx]

Not Atlantic basin per se but this is interesting:

The UKMET has for the 2nd run in a row a TC in the Mediterranean Sea:

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 21.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 35.8N 21.0E 1008 31
1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 38.7N 24.0E 1007 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 40.5N 24.6E 1007 27
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 39.6N 22.6E 1008 25

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Not Atlantic basin per se but this is interesting:
The UKMET has for the 2nd run in a row a TC in the Mediterranean Sea:

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 21.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 35.8N 21.0E 1008 31
1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 38.7N 24.0E 1007 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 40.5N 24.6E 1007 27
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 39.6N 22.6E 1008 25

This would be the season for it. Water temps in the Mediterranean are astronomical.


.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 9/5/2026 at 12:29 AM, vortex95 said:

A bit of caution here.  The other two very strong El Ninos since 1950?

1983 was lowest ACE on record in the satellite era and only 4 NS.

1992 had only 7 NS and an ACE of 40.  Yes, we had Andrew, but I am looking at entire seasons here, not individual storms.  1983 had Alicia Cat 3 that made a direct hit on HOU.

2023 going by the RONI index, was a moderate El Nino, not very strong.
https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm

This is only the 5th very strong El Nino since 1950, so small sample size precludes a statistically significant signal either way for what 2027 might hold using just very strong El Nino as an indicator.
 

It should be the sixth very strong el nino since 1950. I'm not sure why they didn't put 1972-73 as a VSE, considering it has 3 consecutive +2.0 trimonthlies.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. 

I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

Per my post from two days ago ITT that analyzed El Niño seasons with <4.3 ACE as of then, I’d be wary that despite the very slow start there likely will be some dangerous activity in some areas late Sept to mid Oct especially if I were a (near) coastal resident.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear