3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[MidwestChaser]

 

[Chicago Storm]

Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.

i shared the stats not too long ago.

this is our best season in terms of both snow and cold in several years.

[mnchaserguy]

Snowing pretty good despite relatively mundane reflectivity.


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[RogueWaves]

20 hours ago, RemoteSenses said:

Blizzard in ORD come on guys lmao

Enjoy your rainstorm. I will do the same. Unfortunate bust for pretty much all of us.

Other than Nov 28-29 big storms have avoided us completely here in Mid-Michigan. One the worst stretches of my life in that regard. Midland's climo history is not that great for Big Dogs fwiw. Harrison is marginally better but still kind in-between the target zones. 

[RogueWaves]

55 minutes ago, Baum said:

What’s your outlook for this event?

For mby? 4+ melting down to puddles, then the backside blasting thru making a frozen mess of everything for several days. Then spring happens next weekend. The Robins are not too pleased with back-2-back storms greeting their arrival.

[Jebman]

I read in one of the AFDs that places to the north of I 94 may get 18-36 inches of snow.

I'm so jealous because I wanted my Uncle in La Crosse to have to shovel 2 feet of snow. Now he is only going to get maybe 8-14 inches with some sleet. Damn. I wanted him to get slammed with the 18-36 ha ha, then he has to dig snow. I was gonna call him up and brag about low 90s in south Texas while he breaks his back in deep snow with drifts on top of it.

[A-L-E-K]

True^

[McHenrySnow]

18 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I read in one of the AFDs that places to the north of I 94 may get 18-36 inches of snow.

I'm so jealous because I wanted my Uncle in La Crosse to have to shovel 2 feet of snow. Now he is only going to get maybe 8-14 inches with some sleet. Damn. I wanted him to get slammed with the 18-36 ha ha, then he has to dig snow. I was gonna call him up and brag about low 90s in south Texas while he breaks his back in deep snow with drifts on top of it.

90s in March is not the flex you think it is. 

[Jebman]

6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

90s in March is not the flex you think it is. 

You're right, its not. But low 90s in March is a lot better than having to deal with heavy snow and blizzard strength winds. I mean, you guys are definitely up to it, but I am aging and I can't any more. All I like to do now is watch it fall but that's it.

 

McHenry are you trying to tell me that Texas is going to have a very bad record hot summer this year?

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Hi-res models have swung the heavy death band south of the metro now. 50 miles will make the difference between 12-15” and 18-24”

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

I've had more snow than most on this sub, including a white Christmas. But, another year of just an avg season (fail), and no warning-level storms (fail), and depth never reached dbl-digits (fail). But I did have 99 consecutive days of legit snow cover (I don't count "T" as snow cover days). How do I score this one? 

What was your peak depth? Detroit peaked at 9" Jan 26-29 and Feb 7.

[MJO812]

Enjoy guys

Post pics and videos 

[mnchaserguy]

Hi-res models have swung the heavy death band south of the metro now. 50 miles will make the difference between 12-15” and 18-24”

I’m not sure I quite buy it. They’ve held steady all day on the band over the metro. Seems odd that there is such a dramatic shift in one run as things are starting.


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[Sciascia]

New hi-res NAM really sucking any fun out of Illinois for the event in terms of high amounts. Even furthest western parts of the state.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

New hi-res NAM really sucking any fun out of Illinois for the event in terms of high amounts. Even furthest western parts of the state.

Yeah 0z not kind to IL. Lol. Another non event. Ready for spring to stick around 

[McHenrySnow]

23 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Yeah 0z not kind to IL. Lol. Another non event. Ready for spring to stick around 

I'll gladly take 2-4" - I want to see how cold it can get Tuesday morning.

[Radtechwxman]

16 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I'll gladly take 2-4" - I want to see how cold it can get Tuesday morning.

After 80s on Tues and storm chasing I'm good. Lol. Im so over cold. But would of been cool to get a historical blizzard like this. 

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I've had more snow than most on this sub, including a white Christmas. But, another year of just an avg season (fail), and no warning-level storms (fail), and depth never reached dbl-digits (fail). But I did have 99 consecutive days of legit snow cover (I don't count "T" as snow cover days). How do I score this one? 

In my book, that’s a solid B…and it would be a B+ if the snow cover was 3”+ on a majority of those 99 days. 

[beavis1729]

Looks like it could be a top 10 event for MSP. Just needs to exceed 16.0”.

I’m surprised that MSP (POR 140 years) only has 3 storms of 18”+, and only 22 storms between 13-17”. That’s disappointing.

On the latter, I would have expected at least twice as many, and probably even 3x as many (which would imply one such storm every other year). A 13” storm isn’t supposed to be a big deal for MSP, but apparently it is. 

[cutlew]

I’m not sure I quite buy it. They’ve held steady all day on the band over the metro. Seems odd that there is such a dramatic shift in one run as things are starting.


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Well last night the 0z Hi Res group had us under sleet / dry slot and the death band in Hinckley at this hour so we might get better predictability just dusting off the old Microsoft Paint.

Anyways bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; I measured 2” as of 10 pm under this initial band, comes out to ~0.75” per hour or so.


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[andyhb]

Quote

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially historic blizzard is expected late tonight through
  Monday night. This will create treacherous and potentially
  life-threatening travel conditions and could result in tree
  damage and power outages!

- Snow amounts of 1-3 feet are expected (locally up to 4 feet
  north-central and eastern U.P.) with wind speeds of 35-65
  mph. Strongest winds are expected late Sunday afternoon into
  Monday in the Keweenaw Peninsula and along the lakeshores of
  Lake Superior.

- Widespread northeast Gales over Lake Superior on Sunday become
  northerly storm force winds of 50-60 knots Sunday night into
  Monday. There is a 30% chance for gusts exceeding 64 knots in
  the east on Monday. Heavy freezing spray is also expected.

- Large waves on the Great Lakes increase the risk of beach
  erosion and lakeshore flooding for all Lake Superior
  lakeshores Sunday night and Monday.

Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.

[mnchaserguy]

Looks like it could be a top 10 event for MSP. Just needs to exceed 16.0”.
I’m surprised that MSP (POR 140 years) only has 3 storms of 18”+, and only 22 storms between 13-17”. That’s disappointing.
On the latter, I would have expected at least twice as many, and probably even 3x as many (which would imply one such storm every other year). A 13” storm isn’t supposed to be a big deal for MSP, but apparently it is. 

I don’t have the data to support but I’m pretty sure our upper echelon storms start to cluster around 12-13”. Anything over that is pretty good for us.


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[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

i shared the stats not too long ago.

this is our best season in terms of both snow and cold in several years.

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”…and only a 0.6” mean depth for the last 80 days of met winter. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years.

On top of that, ORD actually had one of the better snow totals in N IL, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone. And I didn’t shovel once after the early December storm. How does that happen?

Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years.

On top of that, ORD had one of the better snow totals in the LOT area, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone.

Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo. 

It's only going to get worse. 

[Emmett_Brown]

0Z GFS has another SE shift with the track of the surface low through N IL

[ILSNOW]

Image

 

[beavis1729]

8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

It's only going to get worse. 

Possibly…but I guess my point is that it hasn’t really ever been consistently good, other than the glory days in the late 1970s and 1980s. Of course 2013-14 was good, but that’s only one season. 

[cutlew]

I don’t have the data to support but I’m pretty sure our upper echelon storms start to cluster around 12-13”. Anything over that is pretty good for us.


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Feel like we get an annual 8-10” where some place in the area goes over a foot (just not MSP airport proper) but I also think it’s hard to actually get enough moisture this far up north to go over a foot area-wide without a lake nearby.

Instead we get a decent amount of the prairie/plains climate getting a few inches here or there and holding onto them while it’s below zero every night for 2 weeks.

[beavis1729]

4 minutes ago, Emmett_Brown said:

0Z GFS has another SE shift with the track of the surface low through N IL

A mini jackpot for cyclone. Hopefully it works out for there, after a shockingly snow-free period since 12/8 (and after last season’s record low snowfall for MLI).

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”…and only a 0.6” mean depth for the last 80 days of met winter. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years.

On top of that, ORD actually had one of the better snow totals in N IL, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone. And I didn’t shovel once after the early December storm. How does that happen?

Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo. 

Ive actually compiled data on SDDs ever since you told me what they were. 

Solid for DTW....DJF sdds were 297.