3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[Chicago916]

Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao

[sbnwx85]

Kind of ripping under this mini band.

[cmillzz]

7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February.

I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. 

I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. It’s ok for people to have high standards.

Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. 

I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context.

This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale.

On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar date on which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). In other words, I would say we have about one month of winter. I may be a tough grader, but that’s how it should be  An 8 out of 10, not a crazy outlier  

I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. 

I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. 

Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures. 

Yeah, it’s been almost as bad as last winter for N Illinois. Chicago barely saw an inch of snow in February, kind of pathetic tbh.

[Chicago Storm]

Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao

no.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Ground is dusted, snow getting steadier. Here we go!

[Chicago Storm]

Yeah, it’s been almost as bad as last winter for N Illinois. Chicago barely saw an inch of snow in February, kind of pathetic tbh.

lol, no.

[Sciascia]

New hi-res NAM expectedly cutting back on the double digit totals from 12z for NW IL

[DocATL]

lol, no.

In their defense, Chicago did barely see an inch of snow in February…and through today. But last winter was worse…which is sad if you love snow.

[Baum]

Seen a lot February’s come up lame on the snow front through the years. Not new. To get back on topic have also seen a lot of these March defo bands with these deep big cyclones surprise on the back end snow front as well through the years. Really don’t want zero windchills with 40 mph winds and a coating come Monday. 

[sbnwx85]

Picked up a surprise inch of snow. Season total at 76.5”.

[ILSNOW]

Image

 

[Met1985]

Holy smokes this looks like one hell of a storm. Kind of reminds me of the Blizzard up in Wisconsin about 7 or 8 years ago.

[Imneversatisfied]

Will someone please post the 18z FRAM? 

[Baum]

18 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Image

 

If only

[Chicago Storm]

fun to watch the shift in guidance today…

much of 12z guidance shifted north, except the euro, which shifted south.

now, much of 18z guidance is shifting south, and the euro has doubled down to shift even more south.

zero surprise over any of this.

[McHenrySnow]

Anyone have an 18z Euro map?

[Baum]

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

fun to watch the shift in guidance today…

much of 12z guidance shifted north, except the euro, which shifted south.

now, much of 18z guidance is shifting south, and the euro has doubled down to shift even more south.

zero surprise over any of this.

Soon as I’m out. They pull me back in. 

[RogueWaves]

Hourly is a smorgasbord of p-types up here. 4.2" of snow, just to get washed down a drain by 1+ inch of rain and mid-40's. Yesterday's storm will be the better of the two. Spring needs to get here asap

[hawkeye_wx]

14 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Anyone have an 18z Euro map?

[cmillzz]

Going to be a nowcast event it seems. Still sticking with my call though.

[McHenrySnow]

Just now, cmillzz said:

Going to be a nowcast event it seems. Still sticking with my call though.

With so many pieces involved, it always was going to be. 

[mnchaserguy]

Ground and roads covered here in Blaine. Blizzard warning doesn’t start for another 3 hours. This is all bonus snow.


.

[mnchaserguy]

Nice explanation by MPX on pulling the trigger for a blizzard warning. 
 

So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snowtotals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will beobserved in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central tosouth central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night.For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may arguethat we don`t hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or lessvisibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or moreconsecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will belagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really needthe heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of aBlizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfallamounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travelexpected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sundaynight. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the windowSunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they`ll likely say,yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high toextreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest wintermessaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel isexpected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get themessage across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to gowith Blizzard Warning.

 

I really love that they went through that explanation. They didn’t pull any punches about it either.


.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February.

I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. 

I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. I just feel like people focus on total snowfall relative to average, not even realizing that our normals are pathetic to begin with, plus two seasons with the exact same snow totals could have completely different characters. It’s not only ok for people to have high standards, but it should be encouraged…just like anything in life.

Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5 and entering into the shortest days and lowest sun angle of the year. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. Plus the endless annoying dustings which would have been great if there were a good snowpack (but instead, you end up noticing the sublimation even when it managed to stay cold for awhile), and the new obnoxious problem in early December when the snow melted from below since it was so early in the season. It’s as though everything goes against snow retention around here. To me, snow retention is the most defining aspect of winter. The only thing good about this winter was the cold outbreak in mid-late January, especially because we thankfully maintained a bit of snow cover IMBY during the cold (but not on the roads or more congested areas, which is an entirely different issue).

I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context.

This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale.

Some may say winter means an average high temp in the 30s or colder. To me, that’s way too generous, and it would get a 2 on the aforementioned scale. If every day were in the 30s or colder, that would be different. But average highs in the 30s aren’t wintry, because a significant number of days in the 40s and 50s can still occur, which is unacceptable.

On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar period during which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). In other words, I would say we have about one month of winter. I may be a tough grader, but that’s how it should be when you care about something. An 8 out of 10, not a crazy outlier.

I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. Miami gets an F every winter, even with this year’s record cold (30s) for them. It doesn’t matter what a place’s climo is.

I know that I anthromoporphize winter. But when a person cares about something and has a deep emotional connection to it, that’s what happens. I guess the alternative is to not get excited about anything at all, but what fun is that?

I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. 

Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures. 

I've had more snow than most on this sub, including a white Christmas. But, another year of just an avg season (fail), and no warning-level storms (fail), and depth never reached dbl-digits (fail). But I did have 99 consecutive days of legit snow cover (I don't count "T" as snow cover days). How do I score this one? 

[Baum]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I've had more snow than most on this sub, including a white Christmas. But, another year of just an avg season (fail), and no warning-level storms (fail), and depth never reached dbl-digits (fail). But I did have 99 consecutive days of legit snow cover (I don't count "T" as snow cover days). How do I score this one? 

What’s your outlook for this event?

[cmillzz]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

In their defense, Chicago did barely see an inch of snow in February…and through today. But last winter was worse…which is sad if you love snow.

Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Last Feb was actually a better winter month overall for NE IL/SE WI, but for the entire winter I guess you can make the argument that last winter was worse. Not setting the bar very high here though.

I missed you’re call for this event what is it?

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Vis under a mile now. Wind is shredding the dendrites and already causing minor drifting