March 10th, 2026 Severe Threat

[pen_artist]

How much further north will the warm front nudge? Still about 36-48 hours to see but looking like our first crack at some true severe for Central and N IL. Also storm initiation a slight question with the latest 00z models, specifically NAM3km.

[Chicago916]

Those north of the front may still not want to not park their cars outside with the higher risk for large hail with elevated storms. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

[MidwestChaser]

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Blame Lake Michigan for that.

[cmillzz]

26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Though the Euro still has it getting up to the state line with Chicago tagging another 70 degree day. AI GFS is also further north with the warm front. Of course the back door front comes barreling through at some point in the day.

[Normandy Ho]

Locked back in I love slab daddy season.  Good luck to the affected areas 

[Radtechwxman]

2 hours ago, pen_artist said:

How much further north will the warm front nudge? Still about 36-48 hours to see but looking like our first crack at some true severe for Central and N IL. Also storm initiation a slight question with the latest 00z models, specifically NAM3km.

Disregard nam. As usual it's way too cool with the sfc temps. Why it doesn't look good for storms. Not enough to break cap. It isn't going to be as cool as it shows. 

[KeenerWx]

Looking forward to the possibility of some spicy booms. 

[CheeselandSkies]

7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Three Rivers and Union City, MI would like a word about that.

Tuesday looks legit, decent agreement among CAMS on discrete convection initiating within a favorable to highly favorable parameter space. The exception being the NAM 3KM which as has been noted, is likely due to its cool PBL bias.

It is a bit of an odd pattern for the location and time of year, bearing more of the hallmarks of a late spring to summer setup for the region (like June 22nd, 2015 and '16) than an early-mid March one (3/12/06 or 3/15/16). However the same was true for last Friday.

[A-L-E-K]

hoping for a nice soak and good luck to those south of i80 getting the goods

[SchaumburgStormer]

If things continue as progged, may buzz down to El Paso or somewhere nearby tomorrow and see how things develop. 

[nvck]

looking good for a chase tomorrow, HRRR has 4.2k surface CAPE in IL which is just unreal...  agreed that the biggest question is just whether storms pop or not before 00/01z, to actually be able to see something while chasing
 

[Harry Perry]

Most of the short range guidance trending towards keeping the front crashing south to I-80. Last week WAA won out but I don’t think that will be the case this time around, unless RRFS is onto something. Looks pretty ominous. Not a fan of the 8-2am storm time, hopefully the timing will keep things from getting too out of hand south and west of here.

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If things continue as progged, may buzz down to El Paso or somewhere nearby tomorrow and see how things develop. 

Texas? 

Here's the NAM forecast for tornado parameter. There's going to be a high-shear environment for supercells near and south of the warm front, and possibly cold front.   Models differ on how much the warm front moves toward the cold lakes (like me.)

[A-L-E-K]

it's also a shit town in illinois

(no offense to our el paso posters)

[Jackstraw]

Gonna be Mr. Shitzcky slop storms with lots of mud generators around here. Too late in the evening, stratus deck all day capping it. I swear the timing of storm systems the past few Springs has been horrid for here. Not that I'm wishing mine or anyones house to be slabbed out here in the stix but it would be nice to chase something without spending 100 dollars lol. Have Xanax script ready for the dog, and me if his doesn't work  

[cyclone77]

Looking like a decent tor threat just south of here.  Mostly large hail threat here thankfully.

[CheeselandSkies]

I think I'm going for an initial target of Galesburg, IL. Multiple models seem to be maximizing the parameters there near 0Z Wednesday, and some initiate discrete convection. In addition, just anecdotally there seems to be something about the west side of the Illinois River valley from Beardstown on up to Peoria; multiple notable tornado events have occurred there in recent years.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I think I'm going for an initial target of Galesburg, IL. Multiple models seem to be maximizing the parameters there near 0Z Wednesday, and some initiate discrete convection. In addition, just anecdotally there seems to be something about the west side of the Illinois River valley from Beardstown on up to Peoria; multiple notable tornado events have occurred there in recent years.

I'd head to Macomb.  Seems like that area is always the hot spot during these sup events.  

[cyclone77]

HRRRRR has a nice monster sup rolling east near Kankakee late afternoon. 

[nvck]

hrrr finally got on board with the earlier/afternoon CI that other cams have had. probably targeting bloomington initially? maybe a bit north (like pontiac) as that seems to be the trend

[Chicago916]

Idk if I buy the more northward trend of the front in IL to continue anymore then it has already, but the more north it trends, the higher the population threatened by a potential strong tornado (no guarantee obviously!)

[Chinook]

WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL have a similar look for severe cells in N IL tomorrow

[sbnwx85]

Gonna get wild tomorrow. 

[KeenerWx]

Yeah, HRRR verbatim would be a treat locally with multiple storm hits.

[King James]

HRRRRR has a nice monster sup rolling east near Kankakee late afternoon. 

Yeah woke up to a lot of the high res stuff showing me get nuked today

Love these days though, the anticipation. I’ll be outside from like noon on waiting for these storms to pop

[Jackstraw]

Good luck to all next door. All I can hope for is a stray pre frontal cap breaker in the late afternoon through evening. Think there will be more nighttime action than anyone desires. Gonna be 12 hours or so of twilight through the dark hours for a potential long tracker to run out ahead. Keep those weather radios and radars cranking. Only good thing is storm motion doesn't look to be typical early Spring speedsters. These will be full on SUPS hard anchored into the BL if/when they blow up before getting messy as they move East.

[A-L-E-K]

ready for some stones

[Imneversatisfied]

Up here in northeast Michigan I could see a "severe" ice storm tonight and tomorrow. Can someone please post the FRAM forecasts? Thanks

[King James]

I wonder if the old folks are going to head to the basement for the 10am test

Might be a confusing day for some