March 10th, 2026 Severe Threat

[pen_artist]

How much further north will the warm front nudge? Still about 36-48 hours to see but looking like our first crack at some true severe for Central and N IL. Also storm initiation a slight question with the latest 00z models, specifically NAM3km.

[Chicago916]

Those north of the front may still not want to not park their cars outside with the higher risk for large hail with elevated storms. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

[MidwestChaser]

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Blame Lake Michigan for that.

[cmillzz]

26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Though the Euro still has it getting up to the state line with Chicago tagging another 70 degree day. AI GFS is also further north with the warm front. Of course the back door front comes barreling through at some point in the day.

[Normandy Ho]

Locked back in I love slab daddy season.  Good luck to the affected areas 

[Radtechwxman]

2 hours ago, pen_artist said:

How much further north will the warm front nudge? Still about 36-48 hours to see but looking like our first crack at some true severe for Central and N IL. Also storm initiation a slight question with the latest 00z models, specifically NAM3km.

Disregard nam. As usual it's way too cool with the sfc temps. Why it doesn't look good for storms. Not enough to break cap. It isn't going to be as cool as it shows. 

[KeenerWx]

Looking forward to the possibility of some spicy booms. 

[CheeselandSkies]

7 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Warm front will ride along I-80 as they always seem to do this time of the year. 

Three Rivers and Union City, MI would like a word about that.

Tuesday looks legit, decent agreement among CAMS on discrete convection initiating within a favorable to highly favorable parameter space. The exception being the NAM 3KM which as has been noted, is likely due to its cool PBL bias.

It is a bit of an odd pattern for the location and time of year, bearing more of the hallmarks of a late spring to summer setup for the region (like June 22nd, 2015 and '16) than an early-mid March one (3/12/06 or 3/15/16). However the same was true for last Friday.

[A-L-E-K]

hoping for a nice soak and good luck to those south of i80 getting the goods

[SchaumburgStormer]

If things continue as progged, may buzz down to El Paso or somewhere nearby tomorrow and see how things develop. 

[nvck]

looking good for a chase tomorrow, HRRR has 4.2k surface CAPE in IL which is just unreal...  agreed that the biggest question is just whether storms pop or not before 00/01z, to actually be able to see something while chasing
 

[Harry Perry]

Most of the short range guidance trending towards keeping the front crashing south to I-80. Last week WAA won out but I don’t think that will be the case this time around, unless RRFS is onto something. Looks pretty ominous. Not a fan of the 8-2am storm time, hopefully the timing will keep things from getting too out of hand south and west of here.