yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I see sun and some blue sky leaving work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick. It looks like its leaving a gap in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 30 wind nudged NEward on 1300z OTLK from SPC... includes i95 corridor and DC metro and Baltimore metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times. Clouds are our most common fail mode in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Clouds are our most common fail mode in these parts. That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago Looks like the clouds are breaking up a bit to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Light rain here with blue skies to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago Yes it's somewhat encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 7/25/2026 at 10:28 AM, high risk said: The Euro is a legit severe solution for Tuesday. The GFS screams "dying MCS moves through at 9AM and kills off the afternoon threat". We shall see about the second part of the GFS call, but it nailed the first part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MDphotog said: We shall see about the second part of the GFS call, but it nailed the first part. Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone. Richmond wins again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I can see the sun breaking out through the clouds at times here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone. 14z HRRR smacks DC metro and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: 14z HRRR smacks DC metro and south La Plata UH track maximum.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Pretty nice MCS remnant/rebirth moving through down here. Warned sections missed my hood but high quality rainfall this AM with some deep bass rumbles. Blacksburg honking a little for round 2 if we get some sun in between. Smith mtn lake is still over 5' below full pool. Lots of wrecked propellers and shoal beachings this summer lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Can see the clearing happening everywhere around my house on Sat, but ground truth is still cloudy with some haze. That said, think we could be in for a decent severe wx day, we got the parameters for a good squall/MCS so maybe we get lucky and have a nice shelf cloud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Full Sun in Spotsylvania, 86 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...MARYLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 281608Z - 281815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS, A FEW AREAS OF MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR FILTERED HEATING , WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-45 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AND THE COLD FRONT TO WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. ..THORNTON/HART.. 07/28/2026 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago ^looks like an I-70 and north kind of watch box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^looks like an I-70 and north kind of watch box Probably... but to me thats "good news" for our severe prospects IMO. Granted we could still whiff, but 80% chance of a watch box to our north suggests to me that we are definitely in the game this afternoon for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2% tor was pushed back into the i81 corridor on 1630z OTLK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably... but to me thats "good news" for our severe prospects IMO. Granted we could still whiff, but 80% chance of a watch box to our north suggests to me that we are definitely in the game this afternoon for severe This is a good take! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Im gathering we will get "our" MCD soon as another one was just issued by SPC... but for SW VA into C NC https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1781.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, yoda said: Im gathering we will get "our" MCD soon as another one was just issued by SPC... but for SW VA into C NC Saving the most meh for last! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is a good take! I like that implies we will get upstream storms, so at the very least we should get a nice rainy/thundery evening from whatever remnants can make it our way. Sort of similar to our last setup and getting the MCS from WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It just got hot and humid out of nowhere. Sun is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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